Should Investors Buy Palantir Stock Before February 3? | PLTR Stock Analysis | PLTR Stock Prediction

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팔란티어는 상업 부문 매출이 전년比 54%, 전분기比 133% 급증하며 정부 매출을 추월하는 성장세를 보이고, 흑자 전환 및 높은 영업현금흐름 마진(58%)으로 펀더멘털이 개선됐다. 그러나 주가가 약 20달러에서 72달러로 급등해 선행 PER 약 175배 수준으로 밸류에이션 부담이 크다. DCF 내재가치는 베타 1.5 기준 18.5달러, 베타 1.0 기준 31달러로 현 주가와 큰 괴리가 있다. 따라서 실적 발표 전 매수는 비추천, 투자의견은 보유(Hold)이며 실적 후 더 나은 가격을 기다리라고 제시했다.

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01. paler on Monday February 3rd 2025 that has investors asking if they should buy paler stock or whether they should buy paler stock at all I'll answer those questions in this video here I'll also preview what investors should look out for from paler when it releases its quarterly Financial results beyond the obvious things like revenue and earnings per share i'll start with the most powerful thing investors should look for from paler when it reports quarterly results and that is it's Commercial Business revenue from Enterprises not governments not government institutions but Enterprise is because this is where I feel paler biggest opportunity lies and its most recent quarter us commercial Revenue jumped by 54% year-over-year and 133% from the previous quarter to $180 million that compares to US government revenue which totaled $320 million the commercial business is growing faster than the government business and for paler stock investors that's great news paler has long demonstrated a great relationship with US Government institutions and institutions related to the US government allies of the US government but where paler has had more difficulties in expanding with Enterprises and it's not because paler is not a great business it's because paler services are so expensive Enterprises found it difficult to afford but with the new program paler has implemented they've unlocked a new source of Enterprise revenue and it's because they've demonstrated what they can deliver to Enterprises and so Enterprises have found ways to increase their budget so that they can afford paler Services they cut back on other areas so that they can spend money on paler services or if they only had a budget let's say of $10 million for a certain category they've expanded that category so that they can go out and afford paler Services that's been working incredibly well and this is the area that has a lot of stock market investors institutional really smart investors excited about paler stock because there are many more businesses in the world than there are government and government institutions it increases it raises the ceiling for paler growth and it makes the growth quicker because they can expand to more businesses more quickly whereas if they were strictly dealing with government institutions there's a limit to that growth and government institutions notoriously move more slowly in signing New Deals signing contracts changing providers changing policy Etc so this has been an exciting thing for palente here I've been covering this trend for paler for a little over a year now and I'm excited for paler stock invest ERS for the success they've achieved in this category another great success story for palente here in recent years I would say the the last four to 12 quarters is their Improvement in profitability they've become profitable on the bottom line for several consecutive quarters now in the most recent quarter they delivered net income of 144 million that represented a 20% margin that's impressive for a company that spent roughly two decades of not being profitable they've grown the business they've adjusted they've controlled cost as Revenue has increased and they've put themselves in this excellent position to be profitable on the bottom line Additionally the business generates great excludes stock-based compensation expense which paler uses aggressively but it's a noncash expense that's a share of the business going to its employees if you exclude that cash flow from operations of 420 million represented a 58% margin and 995 million on a trailing 12-month basis a CFO to sales margin of 58% is among the best in the world of any size business let alone a business the size of paler which relatively speaking is not large this is not a large business when you measure it on Revenue when you measure it on operating income when you measure it on custom customer count regardless of any measurement outside of market cap which is growing to be large if you look at all those other metrics paler is not a very large business but its cash flow from operations is already that of some better than some of the largest software tech companies in the world and that's truly impressive and that number is accelerating it's not staying flat while other businesses that have margins in this range they've been relatively flat so these characteristics these foundational characteristics of paler stock is what's driving its valuation higher it's one of those businesses where I've said that the stock price is increasing but investors are also getting more now I've argued that the stock price is increasing a little too quickly compared to its Improvement in business because investors are very excited about what's happening at the company and if it continues at this pace then you know looking ahead two years from now four years from now it could be a great value at current prices the risk is paying such a high price for a business assuming this incredible performance will continue and it has been incredible performance don't get me wrong this business performance is truly astounding and paler deserves credit management deserves credit for this phenomenal performance I talked about the stock price increase and over the last year paler stock price has jumped from around $20 a share to around $72 a share I had paler stock rated as a buy for I would say the first half of last year and right around June or July I can't remember precisely which date I told paler stock investors that the valuation was getting a little bit too expensive based on the company's performance now I would have delivered strong gains to investors for the first half of the year but I missed out on those gains following that but you could see here in recent months the valuation has gotten to the company and the price improvements have kind of stopped the momentum has decreased and the valuation the price has come down a little bit still when you 5 which is below some of those peak valuations of over 160 170 75 but it's still very expensive based on the company's earnings per share growth expectations over the next few years and over the next decade or so so to answer the question do you should you buy paler stock ahead of earnings well I would say no I don't have paler stock rated as a buy I do feel the business is an excellent business it deserves a premium valuation it's one of the best businesses in the world all the that being said I think the price is still too expensive even if you agree like I do like it's an excellent business like it's going to continue growing like the business opportunity is massive I agree with all of that I agree with all of that but I think the valuation already incorporates that in there so what I would say to investors looking to get into paler stock not before earnings I would say to put it on your watch list that adjust the earnings results of course I'll have coverage for you on those earnings and what it could mean for investors and try to get into paler stock at a better price and we'll know more what a better price is following Do's earnings results certainly the current market price of around $70 a share I feel is too expensive maybe even $60 a share would be too expensive all else being equal so I would wait wait until after the earnings I'm going to digest the results and give you updated information if you paler stock the intrinsic value per share I've calculated is $18.50 the current market price is $71.7 now that was incorporating a beta of 1.5 for paler stock if I did an analysis lowering the beta all the way down to one it would give me an intrinsic value per share of $31 so it's clear to me that under these situations under these circumstances with the current earnings Palante your stock while it is an excellent business is too expensive to make it a good value for long-term investors so I'll have more for you after the earnings I'll let you know if it makes sense after the earnings results but as of right now I'm saying it's not buy I'm saying it's rated as a hold and it's too expensive