Cathie Wood Bitcoin: "People Have NO IDEA What's Coming..." (Time To BUY)

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비트코인이 금 대비 강세 전환 중이며, 중동 전쟁 후 인플레이션 완화와 생산성 붐이 올 것이라는 전망. 장기 목표가 2030년 150만 달러 제시. 스테이블코인이 신흥국의 달러 수요를 흡수하며 비트코인 역할 일부를 대체. 금-비트코인 상관관계는 0.14로 낮지만 과거 두 사이클에서 금이 선행. 재정적자 GDP 대비 약 5.12%, 국방예산 증가로 목표치 3% 달성 지연. 경기침체는 기술 도입을 늦출 뿐 멈추지 않는다고 주장.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Bitcoin is starting to outperform gold again. Gold peaked January 28th, uh the day that uh Warsh was uh announced as um uh the next Fed chairman if Congress approves him. Uh and and he is slightly hawkish. So, uh Bitcoin has been moving up relative to gold. That's that's interesting. We think that the last uncertainty uh before we have we move into uh what we believe will be a very strong recovery In this market analysis, I bring you a major and insightful breakdown from Cathie Wood, who recently shared her latest perspective on the market.

02. She focuses on Bitcoin's recent price surge, what could come next after this move, and additional key insights shaping the broader market outlook. If you currently hold Bitcoin or are considering investing, this information could be extremely valuable in helping you better understand what to expect moving forward and how to position yourself wisely.

03. These charts would say nothing to worry about. We know there's a lot to worry about. Uh the market has gone through about a volatility here. Um but if we're right that there's a boom, that inflation is going to resolve uh to the downside after this conflict uh passes, uh and that productivity, profitability is going to increase.

04. Uh we do believe uh and our conviction has increased that uh Bitcoin is the first global digital private, meaning no government oversight, rules-based, most important part of it, monetary system in history. That is a very big idea. Now, what has happened uh in in the last year or so? Stablecoins have uh have been usurping one of the roles that many of us thought Bitcoin would play.

05. Uh in the emerging markets, uh people who are living hand-to-mouth, meaning they don't have a lot of savings, uh they would much prefer uh the the dollar. And stablecoins are backed pretty much 100% uh by dollar or dollar-based assets. Uh and so that is their preferred um uh insurance policy against their own currencies' devaluation and the loss of purchasing power and wealth.

06. Uh so, from that point of view, in our long-term forecast, which our bull case uh for uh 2030 has been uh 1.5 million dollars. But what else has happened in the last year? We've seen gold um really go parabolic. And uh Bitcoin has not [clears throat] done the same. Well, how can that be? It's digital gold, we thought.

07. Well, if you look at the correlation between gold and Bitcoin, you'll see it's very low, especially since 2019. Uh since more traditional investors have become have been getting involved with it, the correlation is 0.14. So, almost no correlation. Um but if you if you zoom out and you look at the longer-term price chart of Bitcoin, what you'll see is gold often leads, and certainly in the last two cycles, Bitcoin's uh performance.

08. Uh so, gold is a leading indicator uh in in in at least the last two cycles. The more that Bitcoin becomes involved in the traditional financial ecosystem, meaning traditional financial institutions start adopting it, uh the the stronger his conviction will be that it is indeed uh the new global monetary system I described.

09. So, our conviction has actually gone up uh as uh Bitcoin has gone down here. What's the biggest risk here? The biggest risk is more macro. Um and uh I as I think I've explained uh before on your show, um our models are are focused on something called Wright's Law. And Wright's Law helps us figure out the learning curve associated with each technology, robotics, energy storage, AI itself, the most the biggest catalyst out there, uh blockchain technology, and multiomics [clears throat] technologies in the life science space.

10. And those learning curves are expressed in cost declines. Those learning curves depend very importantly on unit growth. If we went into a worldwide depression, I think that would uh that would delay these technologies. The irony is during a depression or a serious recession is when many companies are looking for new ways of doing things, faster, cheaper, uh more creative, more efficient, more productive.

11. Uh and so, the adoption, even though the unit growth dynamics aren't there, the mindset develops. And so, we usually come out of those periods flying. These new technologies do. So, uh a a a recession, a bad recession would slow progress down, but it would not stop it. In another way, it would help evolve a coiled spring, so that the end of the recession would be a massive takeoff in these new technologies.

12. Let's take a look at where we are. So, here is the deficit to GDP. It's at about 5.12%. Uh and you can see it was moving in the right direction before the war. Uh and we really thought it was going to drop below 5% and head for that 3%, which is Treasury Secretary Besson's uh goal for the end of 2008.

13. In fact, we thought uh that it was going to drop below that 3% um well before before uh the end of 2008. Uh well, the war has changed that. Uh now, the defense budget is going up, uh and it was already at about a trillion dollars. And just to put this in in perspective, uh the deficit is uh is at about uh well, the total government spending is at about 7 trillion dollars.

14. Uh and so, one of that is defense. Two of that is health care. Cathie Wood continued to emphasize that what's coming next for the Bitcoin market could be truly extraordinary, especially as current price action begins aligning with her near-term predictions. She suggests that the momentum we're seeing now may only be the early stages of a much larger move in the months ahead.

15. This is exactly why maintaining a long-term mindset is critical and staying invested matters. During periods of volatility and short-term drawdowns, investors should view these moments as strategic opportunities to accumulate more through dollar-cost averaging, focusing on what they can control while positioning themselves for potential long-term gains ahead.

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