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결론: 전반적으로 약세 시각. 시장(SPY·QQQ·IWM)이 약해지면 개별 종목도 하락할 것이라는 전제 아래, 치폴레는 단기 반등 후 저항 구간에서 숏 기회, 얼타뷰티·테슬라·길리어드도 하락 쪽 관점이며 엔비디아만 상대적으로 강세로 본다. [시장 전반] 증시 지수가 무너지면 모든 종목이 같이 내려갈 수 있으니 롱 포지션은 보호가 필요하다고 강조. 관찰 지표로 SPY, QQQ, IWM, 다우, 운송주(IYT) 등을 꼽았다. 러셀 지수 약세 시 187 부근까지 하락 가능성을 언급. [치폴레 CMG] 월봉은 여전히 약세. 빌 애크먼 관련 9.9% 지분 보도로 단기 반등이 나왔으나 신뢰하지 않음. 주요 저항: 461, 200일 이평 약 457.55, 피보나치 38.2% 445 부근. 440 위 회복이 롱 조건이며 이후 500까지 가능성은 언급했지만 월봉 약세로 확신 낮음. 440대 아래로 떨어지면 약세 연장. 방향: 하락 우위, 단기 조건부 반등. [얼타뷰티 ULTA] 주봉·월봉 약세. 260~266 구간 숏 제시, 270 부근 되돌림 시 숏 가능. 전고점 돌파 시 손절. 보유 중이라면 반등 구간에서 익절 권유. 방향: 하락. [엔비디아 NVDA] 이평선 위에서 강세 횡보, 전고점 6349(약 6350) 돌파 후 종가·거래량 확인이 필요. 돌파 실패 시 급락 가능, 이평선 하향 시 갭 메움 후 200일선까지 하락 가능성. 주봉 강세 패턴이지만 과열 우려로 추가 조정 필요. 방향: 상승 조건부(중립에 가까운 강세). [테슬라 TSLA] 일봉 기준 갭 메움 후 반등, 212 추세선·206 부근 되돌림 시 숏 가능, 220~221 숏, 232~236 돌파 시 손절·청산, 240 이상 시 추가 손절. 시장 약세 시 187까지 하락 관점. 장세 자체에 롱은 자제. 방향: 하락. [길리어드 GILD] 반등했으나 20·50일선 회복 전까지 약세. 월봉 종가가 50개월선 아래, 인사이드바 하향 이탈로 하락 신호. 되돌림 시 100 부근 숏 재진입. 바이오 지수 IBB는 288~289(20일선) 회복 실패 시 하락, 300 부근 재숏 기회, 상향 돌파 시 320, 340까지 갭 구간 언급. 방향: 하락(IBB 관점도 하락 우위). [맥도날드 MCD] 숏 포지션 보유 중, 절반 청산 상태. 주봉 저항 확인 후 109~110 목표로 잔량 청산 예정. 방향: 하락. [출연자 전망 요약] 진행자는 단기 반등보다 하락 재개 가능성을 중심으로 발언하며, 특정 종목에 대한 명확한 1~3개월 목표가는 대부분 제시하지 않음. 시장 약세 전제에서 개별 종목 롱은 신중.
다듬은 글
CMG, Alta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Gilead. Let's get right into the charts. , Chipoti news after hours, old Billy boy buys 9.9% stake, but that I think they have 45 days to do something with that. So he could have bought 45 days ago which leads us into maybe double bottom here possibly. I would hope and if not then I don't think may maybe somewhere in here we get the pop.
He announces we pop up but we are into gap fill right around 44118. Let's see if we can open up above that. But we have more resistance around 461 and then 200 MA at 45755. So, there's good resistance coming up in the chart. We had a nice retrace, pulled it back. I was hoping for some more bearish consolidation then the next fall, but you know, how can you um I don't know if this news is coming out or not.
It comes out then you have to deal with it. That's why if you're short this, you can't load the house. You got to take the right share position just in case of stuff like this happens. These are news-driven stocks. So, let's look at the weekly. The weekly again, we were, man, this was great last week.
We closed below that. We were skimming around the 20 moving averages now or average. Now we're going to pop above it. We're going to get right into this breakdown area here. So, this is going to be a big area as well as these two lower trend lines which come from down in this area. So, we pop it above this and let's see if we can hold.
That will be the test. If it can, then I think 472 actually will go into these little pivots right here around 465 or so. Then if this continues to curl down, you're probably looking at Let's take this one out. Let's put a new fib in there. You know what? I'm going to take I'm going to take it from here and see where we're at.
Yeah, 482 463. Yeah, and the 38 382 is at 445. So, you have some pretty good resistance at this at this 440 area. So, let's see how it reacts tomorrow. It is holding right now. We're at 43,920. So, let's see if that holds the monthly chart. Monthly chart is still bearish. We we we pretty much fell from 750, went all the way to 414.
We're coming back in. We're trying to hold the 618 down in here. I think we're going to recapture it tomorrow, but let's see if we could stay above it if it comes right back in because you know they're after Billy Boy here. They're smashing them almost on every position. They the big institutions or hedge funds that don't like this guy.
So, they can smell blood in the water here and they can start taking this one down. So if you're long on Chipoti, you need to get back above the 440 441 area, 445 area in that and then you want to keep going all the way possibly to the 500, you know, maybe. But if this 20 MA keeps curling down, this is in a weak stance on the monthly.
So it's a monthly chart, so we close at the end of the month. But right now, Chipoti was weak. You know, it had bearish patterns all the way across the board. This pop, even this pop up, we're still we're still down and sideways. We're still chopping around in a bearish manner. So, even this little pop, that really doesn't mean a lot to me.
If anything, I want to get above the 200 moving average here with confirmation, then I'll believe it. But you start getting up in here around 460 or so, you have a lot of resistance in this area. So, just be careful with this one. Billy boy in it. So, at this point, anything can happen. Alta, let's go right to the daily on that one.
H. So, we talked about this. It had a nice fall from the high in earnings. good earnings, but you know, it was just a high flyer. You look, I'll show you on the monthly. Came down to the 618. You did have some support in this area. I mean, a little more. I would like to have seen it come down into the 750 and then possibly this re uh 239 uh support because you had a lot of consolidation, consolidation, came down, broke through it, and then continued up.
But we did break down through the 618. We recaptured it today, but then again down sideways. We're in a bearish manner still. We talked about this one retracing back into this area. If it does, if you're not short, you can short this thing up here. Then just do a stop out, a close above this with confirmation would be your stop out.
So, it's an easy stop out. It's not a big risk. But if this thing retraces up, take it. If this thing consolidates and retraces up into the moving averages, you could take it as well. You're looking at 260 to 266 as a short. If you're long, I would start taking profits off this area. Let these come in.
Again, I'm going to go back to the SPY, the Q's, the IWM. If those start to become weak, everything's going down. It's I don't care what name it is, it's all coming in weekly chart. The other reason we stopped here was the 2550 retrace. We went right into it. They popped it up. Now, we're starting to come back in.
So, we're going to look for a retrace, like I said, on the daily. We'll probably come back into the 260 270 area. If it comes in there, you can short it. Use the all-time high as a stopout with confirmation on the weekly. And then the monthly. The monthly though a little bit uglier. We almost had an engulfing reversal candle.
Let's see how this will probably chop around up and down depending on the market situation. But again, if the markets start to sell the indexes, this one will be going lower. So protect your longs. If you want to get short, let it go back up into this area here and then short it. If you're long, if it comes back into this area, I'd start possibly taking profits.
If you want to get really greedy like a big fat pig and wait for it to get the double top, see if you get confirmation. But, you know, looking at the monthly, we were stretched on this chart. It's still curling up and this is coming in. But once it gets to a far far away from the shore here or the 200 MA, it's got to come back in.
It's just the way it works. Uh, let's go to Nvidia. This is another high flyier. This one just keeps going. Still haven't crossed the all-time high 6349, but they're going for it. Let's look at the daily. So, we have nice, this is nice bullish consolidation. We're staying above the MA. So, I yet to give it that much, but a lot of times these patterns fail at all-time highs, and if it does, it's going to really come in and it's really going to come in fast.
So, if you're bullish on this one, you want to keep above the MAS, and you want to definitely give it above the uh 6349 area. Well, we'll just call it 6350. Then, once you get above that, you want some follow through and then a close above that area to continue up. But, this is nice consolidation. Not the best, not the worst, but you know, it is chopping around in a bullish manner above the MA.
So, this thing should stop popping. If it doesn't pop soon, I mean, you know, whatever 14 or 20 days of consolidation, you'd expect this thing to pop after 10. You start getting this. If this doesn't go up on this consolidation, it will come down, fill the gap, and then continue to 50 MA gaps down here, ultimately the 200 moving average.
But you know what? We got to play this one day by day. See how it comes in. see how it sets up. But at this point, it is bullish. So, uh, weekly chart, same thing. Bullish pattern. Got a couple tails up here, a couple little spinner dogeis, nothing big till we get above the all-time high even on a weekly close and then confirmation above that with some conviction volume.
Then I'll believe this can move a little bit higher. Um, 63 uh, let's see. Yeah, 6237 was my mark on this one and it's it's holding that pretty damn good right now. But see how the moving average is moving up at 34 bucks now. But this is still extended. It needs to come. It needs a nice retrace first and then I wouldn't mind see it taking off.
But again, it's just just stretched on this chart. We got to see what it does on the weekly. See if this pattern starts to play out. I'd still like to see three, four more weeks of consolidation and then a pop. This pattern fails, boom. Look for at the low here around 5820 and then we'll take it from there.
But uh if you're bullish, you want to see more consolidation than the pop through. Monthly chart stretched. It needs to pull back just to be healthy. Stocks, this is unhealthy move. Stocks need to come back in and then they come back up again. But we'll wait for pattern, see what we're seeing, and we'll take it from there.
That's Nvidia. Uh Tesla, our favorite. So Elen comes out, tells everybody that uh everything's okay. Project X, we're all good. Blah blah blah. No, he didn't. I don't know what the heck he said. Don't really care to be honest with you. But we had a nice fall. We covered our shorts. We hit gap fill right here at 1986.
You'd expect a bounce, which we got. We did come above this gap fill right here on a closing basis. So, at this point, this stock's not bad. You know what? We'd have to wait for pattern now. We're not doing anything with it. So, wait for pattern. Let's see what we can do. But at this point, it's a little bit bullish.
We had a nice reversal candle. I would have loved to seen a close above that. But hey, it gave it its best shot. Let's see what we can do. So, if we retrace back up, you have the uh 382 right here at 20634 and ultimately back to this trend line around 212. If we get back up into these moving averages, you can take a short on here, 220, 221.
If we get above this area, get above these pivots here around 232, 233, and ultimately 236, you're going to have to exit. So, take a half position here, take the rest in here. If it gets above this or the 240, you stop out. You wait for it to go higher and short it again. I I just can't go long in these markets.
If these markets break down, you're going to get you're going to get in trouble. The markets break down. The SPY, the Q's, the Russell, the Dow, the IYT, all that. This market, we're going right back to 187 and that's it. Period. All right, let's go to the GLD. Gilead had an okay bounce. Still a little bit weak.
It needs to recapture these the 20 then the 50, but right now we closed below this pivot here, which is a little bit ugly. And looks like we confirmed. We're trying to recapture it. We're coming back into this uh our 2550 retrace. So, until it gets above these moving averages, I'm still a little bit bearish on Gilead.
But again, the only way they'll get this up is an upgrade news merger. um the IBB or the BIB gets something, you know, something in biotech starts to go and these will all go. That that seems to be the uh the pattern right now. But here, you had a nice inside bar. Four weeks of consolidation started breaking down.
I would have liked and seen a little more consolidation and this 20 move into it to push it down. I think this was a little premature, but we'll see if it sets up again in a bearish manner. This starts to come down, hits price, and sends it lower. That's the weekly. But yeah, looking weak. I mean, this thing just keep every time it gets a bid, comes in, gets a bid, comes in, and just keeps going.
Market gets weak, it's going lower. Let's go to the monthly. Monthly, too. We closed right on top of the 50. So, right now, we're below the 50. Of course, we still have the whole month of September to get through, but right now, this isn't looking that pretty. We closed below this inside bar. That's telling me we have lower prices ahead.
They might actually do a retrace, maybe up into this area. If it comes into here, possibly the 100 even number, I would definitely short this one again. Let's take a quick look at the IBB. We haven't looked at that one today. So, the IBB on the daily, we got a little bit of a bounce. You'd expect it.
You're coming into the 200 and the 50 MA into this support area down in here, double bottom, blah blah blah. So, it gets a little bit of a bounce with the markets, but we're right back into the 750 retrace. So, let's see if this is going to hold or if we're going to take a shot for the uh 288, 289 area, the 20 MA, and then this breakdown bar.
If we continue up into this area again, the 300, I would definitely give this one another shorting opportunity. Don't load the house. If it gets above here and closes and confirms, you just step aside and let it go up to the next level, which would be around, I'd say you're going to have to fill this gap around 320.
You have gap window around 316. And ultimately, I mean, you got you got a big gap area around 340 if this thing really wants to start taking off, but you got to be careful with this. It is still a bearish pattern. We had a pretty good update today, but doesn't mean anything in stocks tomorrow. We could be down 400 and the whole thing's tanking, but we are still above the 50 or below the 50 MA on the weekly chart.
Still weak. And look at this. We go down and we're starting to go sideways. Now, I'd like to recapture the 50. recapture this one or 289 area, then we could possibly move back up into the 300, 298, 299 area. If it can, if it still consolidates under the 50 MA and the uh 50 retrace, we have a great possibility of this thing falling, getting through the uh 275 number and the 20 MA and then boom, we're heading down 263 and then double bottom somewhere in here.
Down in here, I possibly would be a buyer. I'd like to see how this thing falls. And I'm talking for a one two day hold where boom hits it. Take it and get the heck out. Let's go to the weekly. We were in the weekly. Let's go to the monthly. Still love this inside bar bearish pattern. This is ugly. They did close it above the 28136 on a monthly close, but we got to see what this thing does in the next couple weeks.
But again, look at this. Bearish. Bearish. Gosh, it's it should be coming in with the light volume on the markets. That's the wild card. They could still push these things up. Kind of like the fang today where out of the blue they just all started ripping which was crazy. But the one that caught my eye uh was McDonald's.
It was up three something in the morning and then bam, they faded it out and ended up a buck 42 up. That should that's another one that should be leading. That one I'm keeping an eye on. We are short. We covered half the position in McDonald's, but um but we'll see how it goes from there. Yeah, they're trying though.
They're trying to get the weak shorts out. But I love this. This was a great one. I mean, they had a great bullish or bearish pattern. They popped it up, almost came back in here, almost filled the gap. I would have loved that. We did short this today. And of course, we covered and it kept going down.
This is a nice tail. Someone came up in there, said no, no, no, no, no, no. But we are above that 50 MA. So, that's slightly bullish, but we are still below the 50 and the and the 200, but we are above the 20 MA. 20 MA, excuse me. Weekly, same thing. try to get it above this inside bar. Couldn't do it.
Slapped right back. And then monthly monthly we're slowly coming in. I'm still thinking of a target around 110 109. We'll see if we get there and then I'll cover the rest of it. All right, .
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