저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 금 가격이 장기적으로 오를 것이라 보며 지금 사두라고 권하고, 비트코인은 거대한 거품이라 폭락할 것이라고 주장한다. 금 전망: 세계 소득 증가와 중앙은행의 통화 증발로 물가가 오르며, 금은 인플레이션 헤지로서 다른 가격보다 빠르게 오를 것이라고 주장한다. 금이 2018년 1700달러 갈 수 있다는 전망에 대해서는 시기는 모르지만 결국 오를 것이고 시기를 알 필요 없이 지금 사라고 권한다. 금리·채권: 연준의 금리 인상에도 실질금리는 하락하고 있으며, 유로 헤지 기준 미국채 수익률이 사상 최저 수준이라 금리가 더 낮아질 것으로 본다. 달러는 유로를 포함한 대부분 통화 대비 계속 약세일 것으로 전망한다. 세법·재정: 새 세법은 감세일 뿐 세제 개혁이 아니며 재정적자를 키워 연준이 더 많은 돈을 찍어야 하므로 달러에 부정적이라고 본다. 비트코인: 비트코인과 암호화폐 전체가 거대한 투기 거품이며, 정점이 왔든 안 왔든 결국 급락할 것이라고 주장한다. 교환 수단도 가치 저장 수단도 아니므로 가격 상승이 멈추면 붕괴한다고 본다. 금이 오르면 사람들이 비트코인에서 빠져나와 거품이 터질 수 있다고 본다. 반대 측(Nick Spanish, 자프 프로젝트 공동창업자) 주장: 비트코인은 레거시 금융 거품을 터뜨리는 기술 혁명이며 블록체인이 핵심이라고 반박한다. 블록체인은 양자컴퓨팅에 대한 수정안이 있다고 답한다.
다듬은 글
despite rising interest rates or jump in cryptocurrency prices a new report from the World Gold Council says gold prices will continue upwards in 2018 to talk more about this we're joined now by Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital and chairman of Schiff gold Peter in the world Gold Council report chief market strategist John Reed points to increasing global income as a reason we could see gold rise but where exactly is income rising enough to make that much of an impact well remember a lot of the income is a function of more money right if people earn more money because central bank's create more money they used their additional incomes to bid up prices for everything so I think a lot of prices are going to be rising not just the price of gold but I do believe as more people perceived the the threat of inflation and see the dangers of what the central banks have been doing I think the price of gold will rise faster than a lot of other prices as people embrace it as a hedge against inflation and as a store of value well then Lancey the founder of echo Bay Partners said that we could see gold prices hit $1700 per ounce in 2018 which would be a $450 increase from the current price we see now do you think he's right I don't know I mean you know I don't know how quickly the price of gold is gonna rise he could be right but it might go a lot higher than that but it might not quite get that high I mean I think it's going higher I think eventually it's gonna take off right it's hard to know exactly when that is going to happen whether it happens in 2018 or 2019 or 2020 but I don't think you have to know in order to profit from it I think you just have to buy it because I think that the path of least resistance for gold is up and it's been creeping higher ever since the Fed first started raising interest rates back in December of 2015 everybody's been expecting the price of gold to go down yet it continues to climb a wall of worry but at some point you're gonna get more buyers coming in off the sidelines and the price is going to take off but before that happens you know just buy it now well earlier this year we saw gold after the Fed announced increases in the short-term interest rates and the Fed has signaled a rate rise of 2% for 2018 2.5% in 2019 and 3% by 2020 so going into 2018 with that in mind what kind of price fluctuations should we expect in gold or silver well regardless of what the Fed is posturing it's hard to know if they're gonna deliver on those rate hikes but even if they do it's going to be against the backdrop of rising inflation where real interest rates are actually declining even as the Fed is nudging up nominal rates much too slowly you know if you look right now at the yield on US Treasuries in euros hedged back to the euro it's at an all-time record low you know not too long ago you could get 250 basis points of yield in Europe buying US Treasuries and hedging your currency risk today if someone in Europe buys the US Treasury the yield is about negative 60 basis points so despite these rate hikes the yield on Treasuries is lower not higher and I think that yield is going to go even lower as the dollar continues to fall against not only the euro but just about every other currency on the planet well the dollar is down as Congress is pushing hard to get a bill in front of President Trump before the holiday break so do you think investors eyeing the dollar in gold are starting to maybe worried over the actual impact of the new tax bill well they should be worried if they're not worrying now because what this tax bill is going to produce is much larger deficits because while there is some relief from taxes there are some tax cuts here it's not tax reform it is tax cuts but the tax cuts are going to deplete revenue coming into the government as government spending is increasing unchecked and in fact I believe they are under estimating the impact on the deficit because a lot of Americans are going to change their behavior as a result of the changes in the tax law to take advantage of the loopholes that they are opening up a lot of people who are now employees are going to become independent contractors and they're actually going to pay 20% lower axis than what is being assumed when they are judging the impact and I also think a lot of the states are going to change the way they tax their citizens I think they are going to lower their income taxes on wages and salaries and instead have taxes on employers who pay way using salaries the impact on the employee is the same but what it means is that now the employer can deduct those costs on their taxes and so the government is not going to raise anywhere near the revenue they think from the limitations on the Sault deduction so you're gonna see a huge impact on the deficits which are going up anyway so rising budget deficits are very barriers for the dollar because they mean the Fed is gonna have to print a lot more money to buy up all the bonds that the treasurer is going to have to sell to replace the tax revenue it lost some have suggested that Bitcoin has been responsible for Gold's depressed returns but others say that it can be Bitcoin because the two assets have different uses so what do you think the cause of recent depressed returns on gold are well I think you got the the tail wagging the dog I think one of the reasons that Bitcoin has been so successful is because gold has done nothing really it's been so quiet the last year and I think a lot of people maybe who might have bought gold have bought Bitcoin but I don't think that has done much to depress the price of gold but I think that has done a lot to cause the price of Bitcoin to skyrocket and I think probably one of the most dangerous things for Bitcoin if you're involved in that bubble would be a big increase in the price of gold because once the price of gold starts to move now people want to own real gold they don't need to own what they believe to be digital gold but what I believe is is nothing more than fools gold and so gold going up could really be the pin that pricks the Bitcoin bubble Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital and chairman of ship gold thanks so much for your time today cryptocurrency Bitcoin has had a rollercoaster ride over the last week hitting a record twenty thousand dollars per coin at the weekend before sliding back to under 17,000 on Tuesday to discuss Bitcoin let's bring in a couple of expert guests until my Peter Schiff who's the CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc and also by Nick Spanish who's the co-founder of the zap project that works to solve one of the biggest challenges in the blockchain industry welcome to you both gentlemen if I may come to you first Peter I know that you're not from previous interviews you're not a big fan of bitcoin we've seen the roller coaster ride continue when do you think if you think this is a bubble when is it going to burst well I wish I knew that but I I am sure that it is a bubble in fact it's probably the biggest bubble I've ever seen in my career as an investor and I've seen quite a few bubbles and I'm familiar with the psychology that surrounds them and you know Bitcoin has all of the characteristics of a bubble in fact it's not just Bitcoin it's the entire cryptocurrency space I think it's a massive speculative bubble and maybe we've seen the top and maybe we haven't I don't know but I think when the top is in I think this thing is gonna come crashing down it's not just gonna go down slowly you know there's an expression that markets take the stairs up and the elevator down well you know Bitcoin took a rocket ship up and it's gonna come down even faster yeah I think I mean it's exponential the curve at the moment the increase in the in the value and I thought this was an interesting point I heard recently people you know chattering away on social media in Russia saying oh you know we really should have got on board with Bitcoin and I've heard stories of people in the US you know remortgage in their houses to invest in it isn't that the point they say when it stocks and shares that you know you really want to get out you asking me yeah I mean I'm sorry about the I had some static on this thing oh so it's okay I'm just saying it isn't it's the point that you knows my people would think there's not a bubble well to answer the first question bitcoin is not a bubble bitcoin actually is the pin it's a pin that's popping the legacy financial systems bubble over a printing of money over valuation of stocks of it's a Bitcoin is a technology people don't seem to understand and once they do understand they come on board it's a technology and it's a revolution just like the Industrial Revolution changed the world you know this is an information calculation computation communication crypto economic revolution that's changing the world right now and if you don't understand what it is it takes a little while to learn about it but once you realize what bitcoin is you're gonna realize that you're at the ground floor I mean was the Train a bubble I mean there have been elbows probably in when the trains were invented but some people stayed blacksmiths like some people staying Goldsmith's but some people are staying blacksmiths and you know the trains gonna pass you by and then other people became Carnegie's and Rockefellers and let's go to Pizza Pizza recording according to Nick people are getting in at the ground level I mean the beauty of it that the supporters say it's decentralized it's everything that banks aren't you know they're not the banks can't come and just take your money away and it's Bitcoin and it's the blockchain but well first of all nobody buying in today is getting in at the ground floor I mean if anything you're gonna be left holding the bag but bitcoin is not a technology the technology is the blockchain and we can have an argument about you know how relevant the blockchain is and how important it may or may not be but bitcoin is nothing it's simply a digital token that utilizes the blockchain so when you buy into Bitcoin you don't own anything except that one Bitcoin you don't have any ownership of any kind of railroad you've got one car and that car is gonna be obsolete I agree that we have overvaluation we have a problem in Fiat current we have problem let me fit we have a problem in fiat currencies but you know you mentioned overprinting we have lots of digital currencies there's 1300 of them there's massive inflation of digital currencies and even Bitcoin itself has spun off Bitcoin cash Bitcoin gold there's no limit to the supply of Bitcoin branded worthless tokens that can be created what do you make of that point because I think it's a fair one naked I mean when the the blockchain folks salsa music you get different bit currencies you know I mean what he said was Bitcoin is nothing he's trying to say that Bitcoin is nothing but Bitcoin is a reward system right for holding up the blockchain without without Bitcoin without bitcoins blockchain bitcoins blockchain is the largest blockchain ever it's the largest for the first one out and has the most participants there's millions of mining machines handling all the transactional and all the informations and calculations that are happening on this blockchain so when you're a miner on you and you participate in the clearing all this information you get a piece a little slice of a Bitcoin as being part of a pool you get a slice of Bitcoin and that's the reward system so yes Bitcoin is as a there's a technology and the miners get rewarded in Bitcoin for their participation and there are other currencies ya know the Bitcoin itself is not the technology it could be the reward but you don't need Bitcoin to have a blockchain there are all these other crypto currencies that have block chains and they don't use Bitcoin and you can use block chains for anything I mean well the latest airline frequent fire Nick what about if you don't have a consensus the log a blockchain is the only way that large is the largest blockchain is the only one that matters the one that does the most no it doesn't the most people that write is the one that's most trustworthy yeah the Samoyed you can have a blockchain in your pocket and not hang out but essentially a model or algorithm work and meaning you don't have any miners and you don't have any consensus it doesn't mean anything it's just a really really slow data but what and that's what it is but what is what is the value what is the inherent value of a Bitcoin what is what can you do with a Bitcoin to make it worth 17 thousand dollars if I have one Bitcoin look what can I use it for what can I do with it where I derive seventeen thousand dollars worth of value well you seem to misunderstand and a lot of people do and the people who don't misunderstand actually buy it the reality is Bitcoin as the technology Satoshi's there's a hundred million satoshis per no it's not a difference so what is what can I do it when I bitcoin there's a hydrogen technologies you could buy anything as a matter of fact yeah I could buy gold at a discount I go to pax Volcom and I can buy gold at at this guy go buy gold at six ten percent off with Bitcoin no you have to sell the big one you have to sell your Bitcoin all no Peter I just want to get back to a question I was trying to ask Nick earlier you know people are piling into this now on credit they're in just how dangerous are we at the situation we're in now how dangerous is it you know where people are remortgaging and spending savings on Bitcoin look it is very dangerous think they're gonna get rich quick go ahead Peter yeah and look unfortunate look the people people who got in years ago or even people that got in at the beginning of the year yes they have the opportunity to cash out and make a lot of money but people who are buying into this thing at these prices or higher prices are going to lose basically everything I mean these currencies are going to trade to zero or pretty close to it once this bubble pops because right now the only reason that people are buying Bitcoin is because the price is going up and what it turns around then they're gonna be selling it for the same reason there's no value in the Bitcoin you can't use it as money it's too slow it's too expensive and too volatile so it's not a medium of exchange it's not a store of value because there's no value to store it is a it is a pure speculative digital asset that as soon as it stops going up is going to implode Nick I just want to look into the future because the price obviously keeps increasing but you know everything is on based on this blockchain everyone thinks it's the new miracle what about when quantum computing comes along in a few years it is anticipated won't that render the blockchain actually very vulnerable well there's a lot of fixes for that already written and then we would have a fork and implement the fork that would take care of that now to answer the question before he said you can't buy anything with Bitcoin I mean that's not true you could buy anything you buy today you can buy with Bitcoin you buy it at a discount and you can buy credit on Amazon happening first the coupons people have yeah you go to the site and you plug it in and they give you the your Bitcoin you have to sell the Bitcoin no you can't they don't have anymore they don't have you can buy this for you've never been on this one oh my god you use the beetle on Peter yes you're selling your think about burning it you know we're gonna sell your gold to buy something - no one's taking your gold no one's hanging around with a gold test kit taking your gold apologize it's the result but I do apologize we are about to run out of time many thanks to my guest Peter Schiff chief exec of Euro Pacific Capital and Nick Spanish co-founder of the zap project thank you guys
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