저자: 미도리 · 한국인
요약 보기
8월~9월 조정(폭락) 가능성을 언급하며 3배 레버리지 ETF(TQQQ 등) 보유자의 대응 기준을 제시. 시장내부 건전성은 2018년보다 나쁘지 않다는 외부 분석가(Martin Ace)의 견해를 소개하고, 8월 중순 이후 조정 가능성을 전하며 이를 근거로 수익·손실 상황과 과세(양도소득세 기본공제 250만원)에 따라 일부/전량 매도를 검토하라고 함. 조정은 폭락보다는 일시적 조정이라는 전문가 견해를 인용하며, 9월 이후 재매수 기회를 언급. 본인은 TQ 계열과 테슬라를 장기 보유 성격으로 두고 일부 매도 및 추가 매수 계획을 밝힘.
다듬은 글
No, the Mystery's American-style Challenge app is still going strong. Thanks to your concern, my mother-in-law did have a stroke, but fortunately, because we moved her out quickly, the test results show that she has no major aftereffects. Thank you so much for your concern. Originally, I planned to reach the peak after the 15th, but she has n't been able to return to Seoul yet.
However, regarding the situation in Jeju City, and looking at things like Article 10 on blogs and YouTube, we are approaching the August/September correction. Because of that, expressions like these caught my eye quite a bit. There are members who feel like they are walking on thin ice in this stock market, but these expressions stood out.
I noticed many people writing about whether they should sell or rebalance at this point. So, I thought I could help those of you having these thoughts by easing your worries and making a decision. I brought some materials early this morning to share. I have prepared this, so I thought I would take some time today to introduce it a little.
Originally, I planned to cover this after the 15th, but since I prepared the video, it is my own decision. It is an article from Market Value that was uploaded in the middle of last month; I previously tried to introduce parts of it earlier. If you look at the fight, there are things like 1x predicting that the US market will undergo a correction of more than 10% in mid-August.
So, under the subheading, there is content that says, "Prepare for the most severe correction of the bull market that started in March of this year." This part introduces the person who contributed this article—this reporter is Martin Ace—and discusses how well his past predictions in the industry have matched.
So, regarding what Martin Ace said, it is in the section I chose, but Martin first added that the internal soundness of the market is not as bad as it was in 2018. However, it is said that they predicted, twice, that major US stock indices would fall by more than 10%. When asked when the decline would begin, they stated that while a downtrend could start at any time, they expect it to begin by at least mid-August.
So, the timing of this article, which is based on the winning of the ace assigned to them, was around the middle of last month. However, around that time, analysts began saying that a correction in AC4 would likely come in August or September. Since such talk has been appearing frequently, I believe that, as I mentioned at the beginning, these kinds of discussions are currently taking place among many bloggers, in stock-related communities, and on YouTube.
I am also preparing for this myself. So, I intended to talk about this at some point, but first of all, if you are someone who thinks, "Whether I have losses this year or not, even if a crash comes, I will just go for a return on investment or go for a higher price," then you do not need to watch today's video.
So, it is unnecessary, and you can just talk about the decline. When the market hits, you can simply proceed with the buy and dance strategies you have prepared. For those people, I am actually telling you not to worry about this at all. Therefore, you don't really need to refer to this video. As I mentioned earlier, a correction of more than 10% based on the index implies a significant correction of more than 30%—or over 30%—based on a 3x leveraged price.
Consequently, you start wondering whether to take a loss, sell your entire position, or sell a portion. So, this video is prepared for those of you deliberating between these three options, so please keep that in mind as you watch. First, we have options like holding, selling everything, or selling a portion.
Here, you need to establish a consistent standard for your choice. For those leaning toward holding, as I mentioned earlier, you can simply exit the market when it drops. For those of you contemplating whether to sell a portion or a full amount, the first thing you need to consider is whether a loss exists from January 1st of this year until now.
In other words, let's say you recorded -10 million last year and made a profit of +5 million this year. Looking back, that should be eliminated. Here, regarding other [ foreign] positions, this needs to be a bit brief. Let's say -502 appears. It shows 502. However, there is no actual loss. Even though -502 appears in this state, last year was a profit of +10 million and this year is -5 million.
What happens in this case? If we consider the total price, the profit is 5 million won. Since a large profit of 5 million won is recorded this year at -502, in terms of whether there is a loss this year, it is considered a loss. In other words, whether there is a loss this year is important. Why is this?
Well, it ultimately comes down to taxes. Yes, taxes. Regarding capital gains tax, when you sell with a tail, do you have to pay capital gains tax? Do you not need to pay it? If you think about this part a bit, your criteria for making a choice will become easier. Also, even if you don't incur any losses, we will basically receive a basic capital gains tax deduction of 2.5 million won next year.
This means you won't pay taxes on profits up to 2.5 million won. So, if you have a loss, it is worth considering selling everything and turning back at 7. Even if you have no losses, if you can benefit from the 2.5 million won basic deduction, it is still worth considering whether to sell everything or enter a deep position and think it over.
So, basically, you can establish your criteria for making a choice like this. However, relying solely on this makes it difficult to decide whether to make a choice, sell everything, or continue trading when returning in the spring. That is why, in my case, I create a "pro chart" to analyze these situations when a market correction comes.
I create charts like this to think things over. I tend to be quite rational by nature; you could say I lack a bit of empathy. 1. Well, I do hear that kind of talk quite a bit, but it’s not that I actually lack empathy. I do empathize, but I tend to always try to make judgments rationally. So, I create professional charts like this, analyze the situation, and use that to make decisions as much as possible.
I thought it would be good for you all to refer to this, so I’ll pause the video here for about 5 seconds so you can take a look. Okay, so you can use this as a reference. Now, let me explain how I make decisions using this. When you go to the 2% chart and use it to make a decision, there will be short-term target stocks aimed at swing trading, medium-term target stocks if you are thinking about a 1 to 3-year period, and long-term target stocks thinking about 5, 10, or 20 years.
So, if we apply each to one of them, for example, this one would be setting Kicks—what is it— as an income target in a second account. In my case, well, the one that is easy to use and As I mentioned before, I advised setting short- to medium-term goals like 6%. I also stated that Tesla and TQ2 are stocks intended for long-term investment.
So, using this as a standard, I will show you how I identify the bottom. First, let's assume we hold TQ2 in a secondary account with a profit goal. Currently, the market is expected to decline, and a drop of over 30% is anticipated. Therefore, we move downwards. From here, we have to make another choice.
If we consider whether the current return is over 40%, and assuming you purchased the stock directly at the end of March, you would have achieved a profit of over 50%. So, we move in that direction. However, as I mentioned, this is a secondary account for execution trading. For example, if we mark a loss, we proceed to sell all positions.
We use a swing trading account that we created earlier, and we proceeded with that manner. No matter which direction we go, like this... So, whether there is a loss or the return is high, regardless of the direction it goes, the decision is set up to sell the entire position. Now, looking at my current account, Source is showing an execution profit of about 20%, and 6% is currently showing a return of about 39% to 40%.
Now, assuming it went in this state, I think about how it came to 6% and how it hit the bottom. If you look at the market decline and the expectation of a drop of over 30%, it came down, right? Is the return over 40%? No, it is not. And regarding whether there is a loss based on this year, the sun set around late January and early February, and the correction started early.
Because of that, I incurred a slight loss. If you look at the total for this year, it is in a positive state, but if you look at this year alone, there is a slight There is a loss, right? So, for that 7-minute period, even if I take a profit and then sell to collect it, I am in a state where I do not have to pay taxes.
Therefore, I can dispose of it by either covering the loss or selling the entire position. However, in reality, even if I were to sell both of them in their entirety, the situation doesn't seem to be very bad right now. This is because the profit itself isn't that large. So, in the case of these, I make a decision like this.
Next, we will look at TQ Special Stock and Tesla. In the case of Tesla, a profit of about 47% has been paid out. Next, Color Soccer has a profit of about 52%. So, as I mentioned, these are long-term investment stocks. Therefore, although a decline in the current price and a crash of over 30% are expected, the current return is over 40%.
Since it has already worked out by over 40%, let's take it as an example and move on to see if it is a stock currently in swing trading... You might ask, "Is long- term investment your goal?" But that's not the right time. I mentioned that I aimed for long-term investment. So, regarding whether long-term investment is the goal, you say you will sell if the price goes up.
If you look at it, in the case of Ja-ae, I decided to split the entire position and sell. For T-Cute and Tesla, I reached a conclusion to go a bit further in that direction. So, having gone in this direction, I am currently thinking about how to follow it. However, at this point, some of you might be having a thought.
If the return is below +20%, but the initial return is over +40%—and it isn't a self-investment and the goal isn't long-term—then I said I would go take a look. But if the return is below +20% and you want to proceed, some of you might be thinking like this. As I mentioned at the beginning of the video, you don't need to follow the flow chart to decide to sell when the price drops.
Even if the return is 20%, if your goal is to sell, you can simply follow the prepared buy orders and dance when a correction occurs. There is no need to strictly follow this flow chart; just take a look. If you are determined to make a goal no matter what, then you can simply follow this method. Now, having read this far, there are likely some of you who are wondering if the "big crash" will actually happen, and you might be reconsidering your predictions after a 15-day period.
Expert predictions are just that—predictions— ultimately a 50-50 probability. It is something only 10 % do. I am not a 1% expert; it might not happen. So, even if a crash doesn't occur in August, a correction phase will begin in September. My mindset is that it will likely be two corrections within a 20% range.
As I mentioned last time, corrections always come. Since they are bound to happen, even if a crash doesn't occur in August, a correction will start in September. So, if you made a decision like the one I mentioned earlier to sell and then hesitated about when to buy again, you can simply wait until the correction comes in September and buy back then.
And even if a major correction doesn't happen in September, tapering will eventually happen, interest rate hikes will happen again, and so on; the market's destiny is to be a good time to buy. Mass Timing will come around in the hundreds of millions, so I think you just need to wait until then. Now, the important thing is that experts predict this is a correction, not a collapse.
Even if it drops significantly—even if it falls to the 30-minute mark—it is ultimately just a correction. Since it is a correction, you just need to hold on. You just need to hold on. So, regarding my plan, well, as I mentioned earlier, based on this year, there was a stock that incurred a slight loss in February.
I have one stock of [stock name]. And since selling it doesn't cover the [previous] portion, there is actually an option to receive the basic deduction of 2.5 million won. Therefore, since the return on [stock name] is currently not exceeding 40%, I plan to sell the entire [stock name]. As for TQ and Tesla, I mentioned that they are currently on additional targets, right?
So, while earning some profit, I will make purchases according to the [stock name] rate, and since I have basically designated September as a day for [stock name] trading, I also plan to do [basic] trading. And second... I have opened an account, and depending on the rate of decline, I plan to pull a TQ aimed at execution.
I am currently preparing and thinking about it, and I have a plan to bring this in and buy. Regarding corrections, when expectations for bonds, such as interest rate hikes or Mosering, arise, the correction begins like this. There is a slight tendency for financial stocks to fall first and then rise a little before the correction begins.
Therefore, there are financial stocks like BNK and XRF that are rising. I have a plan to try a step-by-step buying strategy for these stocks. However, regarding BNK, which has risen significantly right now, if a decline starts first up to the 33rd, I am thinking of expecting a rise and trying a short-term pre-purchase.
The important thing is that there are losses before and after this year. Since there is also a basic deduction benefit of 2.5 million won, I am using a strategy where these two cannot exceed 40%. As for T Special Q and Ticket The Tesla, since the goal is to leverage their advantages, I would like to explain the plan I intend to follow.
However, what if we keep watching the market and miss the selling timing? Let's see, what happens if we miss the selling timing? When you miss the selling timing, information is always the answer. Sometimes, you see things like this posted on the internet. When a significant drop occurs, we have been "planting stakes" at intervals like 10%, 10%, 20%, and 30%.
We plan to sell a certain amount of the total stock at each point, and if we miss the timing, some people refer to this as "planting stakes." Planting stakes is a planned buying method. So, when it drops 10%, you buy this amount, and when it drops 20%, you buy this amount. Buying like this when it has dropped by 30% changes the logic; it is not a selling method, but a buying method.
If you use the buying or selling method, for instance, if you fail to sell at this time, and you have traded like this, you might have walked in and made a 30% profit, but you only end up making a 10% profit. People say you were taken away, but if you crunch the numbers, that is how it works. However, if we consider taxes, the actual loss is greater than the profit.
We also need to think about the concept of "emptying our ears" (referring to individual buying), as the loss actually outweighs the gain. Therefore, please avoid selling using the incorrect "stake-driving" method. Instead, either cut your losses or use a prepared gang buy or dance method. "Stake- driving" means individual buying, so I think it is better to do this and wait for the right path.
Also, I do not think there is a need to sell. The index will eventually keep fluctuating; no matter how much it goes down, it will eventually come back up. Therefore, there is absolutely no need to sell, and if you miss the selling timing... If you ride, just do it like this. Now, when we sell and then fail to sell, or when the price drops, let's look at this: it is merely a matter of not securing the capital gains tax exemption for this year's losses.
Therefore, if the decline has already clearly set in and you were unable to ride it, just do everything as you are. If you do it this way, I think you might be able to avoid the big players and ride the correction after going to college. So, in today's case, since there were many people doing lineage trading, there are some of you who are hesitating when selling a portion because it is cheap.
If you find it absolutely difficult to make a decision on your own, as I mentioned earlier, try obtaining a sell decision flow chart. I tried it in May and saw which holding stock your respective stocks would enter. So, I hope you will refer to this when deciding whether to sell a portion, take a cut, or take a loss.
With that, I will wrap up today's video here, and I will return after August 15th. Thank you for watching today.
Comments 0