저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이 영상은 주식 투자 입문 강의로, 특정 종목·자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없다. 영상의 목적: 1단 과정 1단원 4강으로, 주식(share)의 개념을 설명한다. 주요 내용: 가게 사례(아이스크림 가게)를 들어 전체 사업을 주식으로 쪼개는 개념을 설명한다. 10,000주로 나눈 경우 1주는 10달러이고, 발행주식수(shares outstanding)가 몇 조각으로 나뉘었는지를 보여준다. 재무 용어 비교: 전체 사업에서의 순이익(net income)과 1주 기준 주당순이익(EPS), 자기자본(equity)과 주당순자산(book value)의 관계를 설명한다. 모든 수치는 주식 수로 나누어 비례적으로 같다고 강조한다. 가치 평가: 주가수익비율(PE)을 설명한다. 시장가격 10달러, EPS 2달러이면 PE는 5이며, 이는 5달러를 투자하면 1년 뒤 1달러의 이익을 기대할 수 있다는 의미라고 설명한다. PE가 낮을수록 좋다는 기준을 제시한다. 1주 투자의 의미: 1주를 사는 것도 사업 전체를 사는 것과 같다고 강조하며, 단타 등 감정적 거래를 비판한다. 주식투자가 수익적인 이유: 사람들이 숫자 대신 감정으로 거래해 가격이 기업 가치에서 벗어나므로, 내재가치를 계산해 저평가 기업을 사는 것이 기회라는 논지다. 2008-2009년 저가 사례를 언급하고, 2012년 녹화 기준으로 가격이 올라 좋은 거래를 찾기 어려워졌다고 말한다. 예측 발언 여부: 대상 자산(삼성전자, 비트코인, 금리, 환율 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다. GE, 애플 등은 예시로만 언급된다.
다듬은 글
okay welcome to course 1 unit 1 lesson 4 what is a share in this lesson we're going to learn about five different lesson objectives the first lesson objective is what is a share the second objective is what is shares outstanding the third is comparing terminology between a whole business and ownership of just one chair the fourth is basic valuation techniques for one share and the fifth is why is stock investing so lucrative so without further ado let's get the lessons started okay so we have a scenario and if you're just joining us with this lesson there's two other lessons before this lesson two in lesson three where we were talking about an owner named Nancy who had an ice-cream stand and we were really trying to understand how she values that business that small business and so in this lesson what we're gonna do is something a little bit different we're still going to use Nancy in our ice cream stand to teach concept of breaking a company down into shares so in the previous lessons we Nancy was trying to sell her business for $200,000 so let's say she's having a hard time selling her business for $200,000 and now she's wanting to sell it for $100,000 so that I use cream stand that you see right there on the screen she's trying to sell that business that small business for $100,000 and she's really having a lot of problems doing that and so maybe she's gonna break the company down into shares okay so what is a share of stock so as you can see I took the picture of the ice cream stand which was a whole business which she was valuing at $100,000 and she was trying to sell it with no luck and what she did is she divided this company up into what we're gonna say is 10,000 pieces so as you see the little squares error there's this squares represent that she split that business up into 10,000 different pieces and one piece of that business which you can see the little square there equals ten dollars and the way I came up with that evaluation there that market price that the nancy has is we simply took a hundred thousand dollars she she decided to come to split the business up into ten thousand shares and therefore if you take a hundred thousand divided by ten thousand that's ten dollars per share the thing that really take away here is that term shares outstanding is the correct terminology whenever you'd be buying stocks when you see that that's how many pieces the company has been divided up into so you start with a whole business and you just look at the shares outstanding and that's how many pieces of that business it has been split up into so if you've looked at a company like Apple they're probably close to a billion shares outstanding and so that's how many pieces that that that Apple is broken up into and if you own one share well then you own one billionth of the company so let's compare the terminology between a whole business and one share as you learned in lesson two and three and if you haven't seen those lessons I would recommend that you go back and watch those so this is a little bit more easy for you to understand but we see the whole business there in the market price that terminology market price is what Nancy is asking for the business she wants a hundred thousand dollars for the business as we learned in lesson two about in the income statement there's those three documents they're the income statement the balance sheet and the cash flow statement are the three documents that a business has that represents its value and if you can read those three documents then you can understand what it's worth so on the income statement the bottom line on the income statement that that physical document is the net income and so we found out that for Nancy's business her net income was twenty thousand dollars and that represents her profit so in one year she has made twenty thousand dollars on her business the balance sheet represents the equity so if Nancy would end her business if she would kill her business today fire her employee and she would sell everything that she has and pay off all her debts what would be left is seven thousand dollars and we determined that that's the equity and we also talked about how the margin of safety is the difference between the equity in that market price so let's say you'd buy this business for $100,000 the next day you have to kill the business because it's not making any money well the only thing you'd get out of the business is $7,000 so your margin of safety there is very little now if the business continues to run and to be alive you can expect to make $20,000 in a year so that's the terminology there and if you want a further explanation like I said go back to lesson two and three to really fully understand that so when we look at the whole business all those numbers pretty much make sense and I'm skipping the cash flow statement because that's something that's taught later on and in course two now as we look at the 1 share of the business which we've determined has been broken down into 10,000 pieces from that whole business that you see over there let's take a look at how that terminology changes as we look at one chair okay so here we are and you can see that we have one share the total number of shares outstanding is 10,000 so we know our market price is $10 a share because we just took a hundred thousand divided by 10,000 the the best way to really understand stock investing is to look at one share like it's a miniature business like you know this this might sound crazy but think of maybe like little miniature people working in that little miniature ice-cream stand and instead of it producing a hundred thousand dollars it's only worth $10 because it's really small and tiny now that might be a silly way to look at it but for some people that really makes things start making sense for them so let's assume that this little small business the market price on it is $10 a share so the earnings for the business which is the same thing as net income okay it's the exact same number but the only difference is net income is when you're valuing the whole business and earnings is when you're only valuing one share it represents the exact same thing but only for one share so if you look there if you take the $20,000 in net income and you divided by the 10,000 shares outstanding you'd be left with $2 the EPS that earnings we see where it says earnings in EPS EPS stands for earnings per share so for one share there is $2.00 then for the balance sheet we saw over there on the whole business it was $7,000 for the equity and so when you go to a per share basis that isn't called equity anymore it's called Book value I don't know why they really changed the terminology as probably so you know that when a person says well the book value is $2.00 you know that they're talking per share opposed to the entire business but what you're gonna find is it doesn't matter if you're talking the whole business or you're talking one share it's all proportional because everything is being divided every single term is being divided by the shares outstanding which is ten thousand so when we look at the book value for this one share it's 70 cents let's go to the next slide here and see where this takes us so when we're trying to get into the valuation of the business we're gonna value this tiny share this one share the same exact way that we had value the entire business as a whole now we learn different valuation techniques in lesson two in lesson three and so I'm going to teach something a little bit new here price to earnings ratio and this is everyone's favorite term and it's all often referred to as the p/e of the business so when you hear a person say PE this is what they're talking about and all you got to do it's fairly simple all you got to do is take the market price which is the P as you can see here the P divided by the e the market price divided by the EPS which we know is the earnings per share okay so for Nancy's business if we had one share we know that the market price is $10 and we take that $10 divided by the EPS which is the earnings and that's the profit that's the bottom-line profit in one year is $2 and you divide those numbers and what you end up with is a ratio of five and there's no units on that when you divide a dollar by $1 you're gonna have no units so the ratio is a five and that would be your PE so what does that mean that five that we came up with so what your PE is a five but what does that mean why is that number important so the best way I can describe the PE ratio is to remember this phrase if you this rings for every then the star represents the the p/e ratio you'll put that p/e ratio in where the star is okay so for every $5 I spend buying this stock I should receive $1.00 in profit a year later so that's a really powerful sentence to remember if that's something you you're taking notes I would definitely write that down because that sentence applies for any company if you're talking about something on on the New York Stock Exchange right now you can apply that sentence to the p/e ratio so let's say that the p/e ratio is 10 for a company so you'd say for every $10 I spent buying this stock I should receive $1.00 in profit a year later so as you can see the higher that the p/e ratio is the worse that sentence sounds because if I said for every hundred dollars I spent buying the stock I should receive $1 of property here later that doesn't sound nearly as good as for every five dollars I spend buying the stock I should receive $1.00 in profit a year later so when you start talking p/e ratios you're obviously looking for something that's lower because that's a lot better than something that's higher and all you're doing to figure that out is you're taking the current market price of what the company is trading for and you just divide it by the EPS okay so when we look at the whole business versus one share I want to show you how it doesn't matter if you're valuing the entire business or you're just valuing one share when we look at the whole business we know that the net income or the profit is $20,000 for the year and that the market price is $100,000 so if you had $100,000 to buy Nancy's business and you bought it and one year later you could expect to earn $20,000 on your net income so your return your expected return in one year would be 20% because 20 divided by a hundred is 20% now let's look at the numbers for the one share so when we're looking at that little micro business is how I I want you guys to look at it you'd see that the earnings and all I did was I took those numbers and I divided it by 10,000 because that was the number of shares outstanding so that will represent the value of one chair you can see that the earnings is two dollars and that the market price is ten dollars so my expected return in one year is the same thing it's 20% so the point that I want you to take away from this slide is that regardless a lot of people think that if they're buying one chair that's different than if they were gonna buy the entire business and that is just absolutely false every time you look at just one chair you need to look at it as if you were valuing the entire business like you're gonna buy the entire thing so if we're talking about Apple if you buy one share of Apple you might as well be buying the entire thing because all the numbers are proportional so that's something that you absolutely have to understand and whenever I see people trading stock you know these day traders and things like that it's it's kind of frustrating because they really don't understand what's actually happening here and that they're they're buying a business they're absolutely positively buying a business every time they buy one share and that's something that is so fundamental to value investing and what this site really represents it buffets books so why is stock investing so lucrative okay so the best way I can I can explain this to people is kind of give them an example so we were just talking about Nancy's ice cream stand so as you look at that ice cream stand and I asked you would you buy this business for a million dollars how would you answer that question most likely you're gonna laugh and be like absolutely not that's that's just crazy talk so after we established that let's look at something else okay would you buy this business for two trillion dollars this is this business represents GE okay and that's everything if you could buy the entire business of General Electric which is an enormous company all throughout the country they're all over the world everyone's heard of General Electric and they probably have a washer and dryer that's done in their basement from General Electric but would you buy that entire business for two trillion dollars now for a lot of people that's gonna be a lot harder question to answer because you know if it was 2 billion to 2 trillion those numbers just really don't make sense to most people that it's it's like in a ten-year-old whether they know how much ten million dollars is and they have no clue they doesn't even make sense them because that's not something that they're familiar with okay so my point in showing you they're asking you those there's two questions what I did is use the proportion and when I asked you if you'd be willing to pay a million dollars for Nancy's ice cream stand basically what I did is I took ten times the current market price which is somewhat of a believable price and I took ten times that to ask you a million dollars and I did the exact same thing with General Electric right now the the current market price for if you want to buy every single share of General Electric would be about two hundred and four billion dollars so the ten times that would be around two trillion dollars so the question that I initially asked you at the ice cream stand was totally ridiculous and the question that I asked you about the General Electric was equally ridiculous because it was the same amount over the actual price and so I bring this up to highlight the difference that most people have once you start getting past the million dollar or the ten million dollar mark most people have no clue what the value of something is they just it doesn't even make sense to them and so it further gets complicated when you take a large business like this and then you chop it up into millions and billions of shares and you're saying all the company's twenty dollars a share that means nothing to people they just they just don't understand it and so if you value one share of the business like you're gonna value the whole business you're gonna find that you're gonna have much more success when you get involved in the stock market so the thing that I really want you to understand here this is if you look at the ice cream stand this if a person was gonna buy that ice cream stand they're gonna do the numbers they're gonna do the hard math and they're typically gonna they're gonna purchase something like that based off of numbers but what you find in the stock market is you have a lot of people who don't know what they're doing now there are let me clarify there's a lot people who do know what they're doing in the stock market but there's a lot of people who don't and what they do is they trade on emotion opposed to the numbers because they they never fully understand what's actually happening with the numbers and they have no idea what the value of a company that size actually is so the thing that to really understand here the reason that stocks are so lucrative is because there's a lot of people that are trading on emotion they're saying oh well you know I have a I have a General Electric washer down in my in my basement and it's it's really good I really like it so I'm gonna buy shares of that company and that's their investment approach which is you know unfortunately it's kind of scary that people think like that and they think that they can be successful and they might be paying ten times the value of the company and they have no idea they have absolutely no idea so the the answer the question the reason that it's so lucrative is because there's so many traders out there that are moving these market prices not day to day but through the years what you'll see is that some of these prices sometimes are offered to you to buy a company like General Electric at a really cheap price you go back in the 2008-2009 some of the prices that you could buy companies for that literally had no debt we're totally insane it didn't even make sense how people could be trading them as low as they were and now as we're looking at 2012 when I'm recording this video things are getting a little bit more expensive and prices are raising so you're not going to be able to get as good of a deal on some of the companies so your job is to always calculate the intrinsic value of the business regardless of how big it is and then compare that value to the price that it's trading for and hopefully you'll get a good deal so that pretty much summarizes the lesson objectives that we want to accomplish through this lesson and I just want to highlight that at the bottom of the lesson for webpage I have a practical exercise where I take people through a real company on the internet and show them all the terminology that we've been learning through the last four lessons so if you want to know where you can find the book value number or you want to find where you can see what the earnings per share the EPS is just click on the link below on this lessons page and I have a practical exercise that I'm going to take you through and just kind of show you where all these numbers are at so it starts making making sense for you so the things that we learned in this lesson we first figured out what is a share then we learned what the term shares outstanding is then we compared the terminology between a whole business and one share we learned the basic valuation techniques for one share with the price their earnings ratio and then we learned why stock investing is so lucrative so that concludes this lesson and be sure to check out the practical exercise if you want to see where some of the terminology is and we'll see in the next lesson
Comments 0