저자: MichaelOliver외MarcFaber인터뷰발췌 · 외국인
요약 보기
Oliver는 은 가격이 8월 5일 돌파 이후 조정이 얕아 상승 추세 재개 가능성이 높으며 70~71달러 돌파가 중요하다고 주장하고, 은/금 비율의 장기 저평가 해소와 은광주 상대강세를 근거로 든다. Faber는 중앙은행 통화팽창이 지속되어 금이 법정화폐 대비 상승할 것으로 보나, 5,500달러 과열 후 조정 중이며 향후 방향은 불명확하다고 본다. 두 사람 모두 장기 상승 논리를 강조하나 단기 방향 확신은 제한적이다.
다듬은 글
In the case of silver, there's so many reasons to argue for much much higher levels. And you know, I've come out before on your program come out with notions of three to 500. And frankly, I've pulled those not because I think it's not going to get there. It's because I'm not sure it's going to stop there.
My view is that under the current conditions where central banks probably have no alternative but to print money. So, they will continue to print money. And in this environment, it is likely that the price of gold will continue to move up relative to paper currencies. Of course, I expected gold to maintain its purchasing power, but I didn't expect the dollar to lose its purchasing power against gold by this much so quickly.
I wouldn't have thought that gold would just go to 5,500. Gold's next big signal may be coming from silver's chart. Michael Oliver says silver's four-week pullback is running out of steam, and the metal is preparing to resume the powerful uptrend that began with its August 5th breakout. Silver traded near $64 to $65 on Monday, weighed down by surging oil prices and bets on tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Yet, it held above prior lows near $63.90, $61, and $55 to $56 despite four straight weeks of downside pressure. Oliver notes a decline as retrace less than half the August gains, a sign of strength rather than a failed breakout. The August surge lasted two to three weeks, but was twice as powerful as this pullback, making the correction surprisingly weak by comparison.
Gold shows a similar pattern while miners are performing far more robustly. After examining short-term oscillators, Oliver expects silver to turn higher and reassert its uptrend. A move above $70, particularly $71, would be significant as it could cause traders to expect weakness to question their outlook.
Oliver also sees silver and the miners undergoing a massive relative revaluation against gold. Silver [snorts] has remained undervalued compared with gold for years and the current move suggests that gap is closing with the broader trend increasingly favoring silver. He has not abandoned his $300 to $500 target not because he doubts silver can reach it but because he is no longer sure would stop there.
Monetary expansion. Silver's historical monetary role, growing industrial and solar demand, and roughly six years of production falling short demand support the case for substantially higher prices. Oliver describes a December January surge as silver breaking out of the box, moving toward a truer valuation versus gold with his holdings heavily biased towards silver and silver miners.
Before we dive in, make sure you're subscribed so you don't miss the next breakdown. Right now we're trading around $65 the front month contract and that's back above all three of the prior lows. The low in January was 63.90. The low in March I think was 61. We got down to 55 56. So we're back above all of them.
Even in this selloff now, but if you look at what happened August 5th through about four weeks ago when we made a high, we've had counting from that top week to the present week. That's four bars. top week down week down week down and yet you've only given back several dollars weekly close to weekly close compared to the August 5th surge which was twice as strong as this pullback has been and the August surge was really like a two to three weeks of sharp upside and you've only managed with more time on the downside four weeks of pressure to retrace not even half of the gains.
Look at gold, similar story. And then there's other things going on we could talk about later. The miners, totally different picture, far more robust. And uh anyway, so I I think that August turn was a turn that's going to continue up. And then what we've just witnessed when we examine our short-term oscillators, short-term momentum, stuff we normally don't focus on because we don't want to confuse people with ups and downs that are, you know, you know, two, three weeks here, two, three weeks there.
Uh, our assessment is that this pullback we've had since that high four weeks ago is wrapping up and that uh we're likely now to turn back up and reassert that trend that started from the August 5th breakout level. uh you get back over 70, actually 71, and you're going to start to cause some price chart folks to say, "Hey, I didn't think it was going to do this." You know, and begin to doubt their ever bearish attitude.
Uh I still think that what's going on with silver and now the miners is a massive relative price reassess re-evaluation revaluation of those markets compared to gold the mama market uh silver is technically speaking since November December of last year if you plot the relationship of silver to gold we do it differently than the ratio we divide silver into gold plotted as a %.
Right now, silver is about 1.5% the price of gold, but it broke out of a very wide about 10-year wide range of where silver was in this little compressed very low relative value to gold, but a little box that you could so easily define with a crayon. Okay, you broke out late last year and you have not negated that.
All you've had is a pullback in the context of a new uptrend favoring silver. Similar thing happened at the close of last month and we can look at these charts later. Miners versus gold. They're saying, "Hey, I'm going to lead now." There's implications to that. But anyway, that's what I see going on regarding silver.
My own personal positions are heavily biased towards silver and silver miners. Yeah. To get an M2 chart out and put it up on the screen and then put a silver chart up on the screen and say, "What?" and it put a gold chart up on the screen and you say, "Oh, it's matching or beating the money growth." That's good.
Gold is the, you know, it saves value, holds value. What's wrong with silver? 3,000 years it's been a monetary metal. Now, it's also an industrial metal. You know, the in the solar complex throughout the world, which is growing rapidly. The Chinese are consuming it. And uh we've had like six years now where we don't produce enough silver to match the industrial demand.
This is bizarre. Okay. But what I'm arguing, what MSA has been arguing is this process that only began with that surge in December, January. That was like, I'm out of the box. Okay, I'm out of the box. Uh, that wasn't the end of something. That was an initial scream by the market that said, I'm going to break your walls down and I'm going to seek a a truer reality relative to other metals, relative to gold, etc., etc.
gold staircase to $5,500 may not be finished even after a sharp fall back toward $4,000. Dr. Mark Faber the gloom boom and doom report says gold surge to $5,500 exceeded his expectations but views the correction as part of broader staircase like advance. Not the end of the trend. He expected gold to hold purchasing power, but not for the dollar to lose value against it so quickly and by such a large amount, suggesting gold overshot at $5,500.
Gold struggled near $4,300 on Monday after 3 weeks of declines, pressure by oil prices and bets on tighter Fed policy. The monetary backdrop stays central to his outlook. Faber argues central banks will keep creating money since alternatives to expansion can be politically and economically painful in a democracy, making tight policy hard to sustain.
As money creation continues, he expects gold to keep rising against paper currencies, even through substantial corrections. Gold staircase history around $253 in 1999, rising to about $1,921 in 2011, correcting to roughly $1,500 with $1,000 as a prior low. Markets advance and impulses correct then rise before correcting again.
Still, printing does not guarantee permanently rising gold. Faber warns Fed money creation makes him less inclined to buy bonds since expansion can push prices higher economywide. Lifting stocks in a bull market, property in a boom, and necessities like bread, butter, and olive oil as inflation. Continued printing can bring falling bonds, higher costs, and rising rates as central banks print more to support them.
Gold fell from $5,500 to $4,000 before recovering. the next move uncertainty. He still wants to hold some gold. Let's get back to the interview. Of course, I expected gold to maintain its purchasing power, but I didn't expect the dollar to lose its purchasing power against gold by this much so quickly.
So, I wouldn't have thought that gold would just go to 5,500. at 5,500. It may have temporary overshot and has been in a correction since then. As you know, it's like uh in year 1999, gold was still at $253 an ounce and then it went to 1921 in 2008 and then it went down or it was 2009 then it went down to 1,500 and 1,000 actually was near the low and then it went up again.
So we have we have in markets staircase movements that markets move up in an impulse and then they correct and then they go up again and then correct and so forth. And uh my view is that under the current conditions where central banks uh probably have no alternative but to print money. They have alternatives but the alternatives in a democracy are very painful.
So it's very difficult to implement tight money. So they will continue to print money and in this environment it is likely that the price of gold will continue to move up relative to paper currencies. I'm not sure it's contrary to each other but uh objectively if you look at the US and you look at the current administration and you consider also previous administration where the US just goes and freezes the assets of other countries and so forth.
I don't know whether anyone should have any appetite to hold assets in the United States. If I were a country like I don't know Kazakhstan or Russia or China or India or Indonesia or whoever it is about the last place I would hold any asset is the US. I mean you'd be crazy if you're China to hold all your money in the US.
You'd be crazy if I see that the Fed prints money. I am less inclined to buy bonds because I know that the money printing of the Fed eventually flows into price increases in the system. Not always, but at some point these price increases occur in your and my cost of living and that we call usually inflation.
If the symptoms of monetary uh printing occur in stocks, we call it the bull market. If we call occurs in properties, we call it the property bull market. But when the cost of bread and butter and olive oil and life necessities goes up, we call it inflation. Anyway, the money printing at some point produces not a rally in bonds but the collapse in bonds and the rally in cost of living increases is the end of essentially the functioning the bailout of the central banks.
At that point uh they have to accelerate the money printing because the bond market then falls rapidly. So they have to print more and more money to buy these bonds that are declining in value. It drives up interest rates dramatically and at some point the rise in interest rates then has a negative impact on assets.
And that's why I say even if you print money at some point it may not lift the price of gold. I mean, we had now a decline of gold from four from 5,500 to 4,000 thereabouts and now we're sort of rallying again, but it's not crystal clear whether it will rally further. Not crystal clear. I mean, not to me.
To other people, they think we're again in a bull market, but to me it's not crystal clear. But even if it's not crystal clear, I want to hold some gold. Gold and silver remain important as monetary conditions grow increasingly uncertain with inflation, currency weakness, bond market stress, and changing investor demand shaping their outlook.
Gold has already shown ability to preserve value through major market cycles, while silver offers both monetary and industrial exposure. Even as sharp corrections remain possible, these metals continue to attract attention as investors seek protection from prolonged monetary expansion and rising financial risks.
Could gold and silver rise further as monetary risks increase? If you found this analysis helpful, please like the video, subscribe to the channel, and hit the bell icon for more gold and silver market updates. Help us reach 1,000 subscribers.
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