[RAY DALIO] PRINCIPLES of Investment PORTFOLIO DESIGN💱

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레이 달리오의 포트폴리오 분산투자 강의로 개별 종목 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 달리오의 성공 스토리: 어린 시절 골프 캐디로 시작해 1975년 브리지워터 어소시에이츠 창업, 이후 세계 최대 헤지펀드 운용사로 성장(운용자산 약 1,600억 달러, 순자산 약 187억 달러 추정). 핵심 개념: 2017년 저서 'Principles'에서 15~20개의 좋고 상관관계가 낮은 수익원을 확보하면 기대수익을 줄이지 않고 위험을 크게 낮출 수 있다고 주장. 상관계수와 위험 감소: 상관계수가 0.6이면 자산을 추가해도 위험 감소 폭이 제한적이고, 상관계수가 0이나 0.1 수준이면 자산 수를 늘릴수록 위험이 크게 줄어듦(예시에서 위험 반감, 수익/위험 비율 개선). 결론: 최고의 단일 투자 종목을 찾는 것보다 분산을 통해 수익/위험 비율을 개선하는 것이 훨씬 중요하며, 이를 위해 상관관계가 낮은 자산을 많이 찾아야 함. 위험 관련: 0 상관관계에 15~20개 자산을 보유하면 1년 내 손실 확률이 약 40%에서 11%로 낮아진다는 예시 제시. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 단기·중기 예측 발언은 없음.

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01. ray dalio's success is the type of story that drives the american dream as a child he and his family lived in a middle class neighborhood on long island he started working as soon as he could collecting tips as a golf caddy when he was just 12 years old even then he had an eye on the stock market and he collected stock tips from his golfer clients along with the cash dalio started investing that year and by 1975 he was ready to enter the big leagues he launched bridgewater associates from his two-bedroom apartment and in the 40 years that followed he grew his company to be the largest hedge fund firm in the world today bridgewater associates manages 160 billion dollar in assets and dalio has an estimated net worth of approximately 18.7 billion dollars dalio credits much of his success to a unique method of portfolio construction one he developed after some painful lessons about diversification during his early years of investing we will analyze how this method of portfolio construction works during the next minutes in his book principles released in 2017 he sums up the concept this way with 15 to 20 good uncorrelated return streams you can dramatically reduce your risks without reducing your expected returns let's see how this method of portfolio construction works a key item is to understand what the marginal benefits of diversification would look like what we need to think about is first the risk measured by the annual portfolio standard deviation second the number of assets alphas in the portfolio and third the correlation of the betas broke it down into each of its components let's look at an example let's assume you have a return that has a 10 risk measure by the standard deviation and to make it simple let's say it has a 10 percent return let's add in another asset another return stream then we add in a second a third a fourth a fifth up to whatever number we want to how would that reduce my risk if on average it has a sixty percent correlation or if it has on average a forty percent correlation or a zero percent correlation how would that change so that's what this chart shows so you have the ten percent average return with ten percent risk and you add in a second and a third stream and so on you're not going to lose the ten percent return as you add new streams but you're going to then have a reduction in risk if it has a 60 correlation you will get a reduction that maybe is about 15 percent but with a correlation of 60 percent you could add in a thousand more streams and you're not going to reduce your risk much more that's why correlation is key here this changes according to the level of the correlation if something has a 10 correlation at about a sample size of 7 or 8 we cut our risk in half that means that we double our return relative to our risk that's really good when we go down this we start to understand what the power of diversification is in terms of the assets we are going to look for you only need to do this simple thing to find 15 or 20 good on correlated return streams these are assets that are probably gonna make money but you don't know for sure if that will happen but they have a good probability of making money but you have that they are uncorrelated or that they have low correlation that's the key here a lot of people think that the most important thing you could do is to find the best investments okay that's important but there is no a great one best investment that can compete with something like this so look at this line when this comes down you can improve your return to risk ratio by a factor of five by five times the expected return for the unit of risk you can't pick any investments like this probably nobody is humanly capable in an efficient market to pick investments that are five times as good individually so this shows us the power of diversification and of balancing risk this is the return to risk ratio that happens for each one of those if i can get a zero correlation and i have 15 to 20 assets i'll have a return to risk ratio of 1.25 that means that my probability of losing money in a year is only 11 down from 40 percent with any one of this individual assets i hope you enjoyed this video and please subscribe to our channel if you leave some comments and push the like button so our video can be shared with more people that would be much appreciated thanks and i see you in our next video you