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we begin with Peter Lynch Time Magazine has called him America's number one money manager during the 13 years he headed the Fidelity mellan Fund it was a top ranked General Equity mutual fund his new book beating the street offers advice on picking stocks and maximizing profits and he's here to talk to us about a lot of things including his own dramatic decision uh what four or five years ago Peter welcome to the broadcast four or five years ago you just said and I've been managing all this money I'm going to do I'm going to quit I'm yep that's right and what and you went to what well actually I wanted to spend more time with my wife and my children right and it it was an interesting situation because I Lov my job I adored my job and I and I liked outside activities and when I when I was young you know I didn't wasn't involved in charity work until I was 30 no activities younger children you just read them a book and good night Moon and they fall asleep and it's all over when they get older there's there's more time involved so I enjoyed the family I was I was leaving for work at 6:00 in the morning I was getting home at 7:00 at night 6 days a week this was in Boston yeah traveling 14 days a month it was just too much so I said you I I said that's it I can't take it and fortunately I had made enough money to say I could give up the jobs so I didn't have to give up the family or the outside activities and so what happened then so you did what with your life well I cut back from about a 80 890 or hour week to 40 or 50 hour week and I in the morning I make breakfasts and lunches for the kids and I do the spelling words and the Spanish words and Carolyn does the math and the science and I uh see Carol in the morning and off I go to a place you have to go some my opinion you have to go somewhere to do something if you stay at home you want wind up answering the telephone or watching cartoons so I or falling asleep taking a nap so she does the hard work and I go I go Fidel gave me an office I have a secretary and I spend majority of the time working on charity things like inner city schools Inner City libraries inner city housing you helping people manage their money or help no not at all n that I'm some of the chares I'm on the investment Committee of of some of the Museum of Fine Arts you I'm involved in Mass General Hospital Boston College but United Way but all the extra things I added to were real hands on on actually being involved in charitable activities you wrote a book called one up on Wall Street and I think that's one of the best selling books ever about Wall Street if I'm not correct you can correct me and so so why then did you write another book okay okay first I was very lucky I wrote it with John Rothchild who's he was made he made a big difference so he but I think the reason I wrote it it was the first I try to explain to people their great advantages their edges they have and that they should get involved in stocks right and they should do it on the right basis this was on the first book right yeah and obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets involved in stocks has gone down in 1960 people had 40% of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds and 80 that was down to 25% it's now down to 177% and why do you think that is well I think people in the decade of the 80s was the best decade this Century for stocks I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it themselves because their methods were so flawed so I I really feel as though I wanted people to understand I don't want anybody to buy a stock I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock you should do certain things if you're not willing to do these things you should leave your money in the bank your your philosophy is is simple and I'm remembering this from the previous book I think we're now talking about the previous book correct your philosophy was if you find something that you identify with I remember that was a story of your wife and her hose your wife kept saying legs and P your wife said these are the greatest things I've ever seen and when your wife said that you knew that this was a product that was you used to atent mot service whatever and the price was good to and you said this is a place that I can determine I Peter Lynch can tell that this is a good product right if these people making a good product then their earnings are going to go up therefore the stocks going to go up and that's the kind of decision-making process you ought to go through right do I have it you've got it exactly right well I I don't think people understand there's 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock has done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened to the price of oil whe who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court the ozone layer has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go up yeah but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know why am I telling you this but I it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on earning they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Green span's the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates yes he'd be the first to he can influence them but he can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now right so how am I supposed to predict interest rates how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 1982 we had a 20% prime rate 14% unemployment 12 % inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen all of a sudden we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things here's a quote from you I own Dunkin Donuts when you own Dunkin Donuts you don't have to worry about Korean imports you don't have to worry about M2 or M3 these are money supply figures aren't they and and what's happening to the money supply this is the way you make money if you don't understand what the company does you should not be in it if you could predict the stock market you could predict the economy you could predict interest rates if you go buy the wrong stocks you're going to lose half your money anyway right I I'm saying people have natural advantages let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry right you supply paper products you supply kitchen equipment you help build restaurants right you saw McDonald's you saw Chi-Chi you saw chilies you saw Cracker Barrel you saw Dunkin Donuts Kentucky Fried Chicken Taco Bell these stories these were 40 40 fold you made 40 or 50 times your money you don't need to make that kind of money many times in your life right no all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry the paper why don't they just stay with an industry you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks you need a lifetime instead people that in the restaurant industry they're buying biotechnology stocks the people in the chemical IND about bi the people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them so that's that's bad number one but worse number two is they don't if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chist you're not go out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a gamble so therefore they go forward and they they bet on one stock for a week and a half and it goes up and they they make $2 on it then they sell it and they buy something else when three years is over all they've done is generate a lot of commissions they've probably lost money that's a mistake so your advice is what if you don't understand a company if you can't explain it to a 10-year-old right in two minutes or less yes don't own it because when it goes down let's say the stock goes down two point you won't understand what's going on what do you do do you buy more do you do you do you flip a chances are your broker doesn't either you they he he or she certainly doesn't know about it I mean who knows what advanc what all these things are with auto back planes and mega flops who knows what all this so buy what you know Buy in your industry buy what you know buy local companies so suppose you you don't have an industry I mean you know you don't really you well you buy local companies companies in your own industry 10 years after WT went public 10 years 10 years after it went public it's a 25y old company now right you could have bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it 50 times this if you bought it 10 years after after it was public already it already gone up fivefold so you could have made 250 fold but I'm saying let's say you were in a town they came into it and they said boy these prices are great they're doing terrific I like the bargains you checked it out you spent a little bit of work on it I mean people are very careful they when they buy a dishwasher they do some research they'll put $10,000 in some stock they hear on a bus so you a little bit of research you say Walmart's only 10% of the country they're not even saturated there why can't they go to the rest of the country so is this this is more of the same is it what it is it's more the same plus I show examples it's it's a a touch more detailed this actually shows me in an action I picked 21 stocks early in 1992 some work some don't I follow those companies some of the companies the fundamentals deteriorate some they improve I watch those companies go through the year I also explain the retail industry I try and make it very simp and I talk about a wonderful example is a seventh grade class yeah the teacher of that read my book and my first book that you were talking about you you and I did a show on that in Washington you remember that show this is a long time ago she read the book and I said if you made it through fifth grade math you can do it in the stock market she says okay she started teaching it in seventh grade seventh grade class these kids had to study companies they had to look at their balance sheets to see if they're solvent and they pick stocks these stocks were up 69% over two years when the market was up only 20 they picked stocks like limited they picked the Gap they picked Walt they understood these companies they also picked IBM I lost money on that too I mean everybody makes mistakes did yeah but I'm saying this is this was this was a school St agon School in Arlington Mass but in addition in the decade of the 80s there's 8,000 investment clubs these are amateur sort of right average people just investing these investment clubs 62% of them of these clubs beat the market in the decade of the 80s only 25% of professionals beat the market let me go back to one other subject you after you're coming back to Fidelity aren't you aren't you going to do something when I when I finish this book I've been working about one or two days a week the last year and a half on this book right now I'm done with the book I'm going to go back to maybe one day a week working with the younger analysts just listening to them talking to them I'm not telling them to buy zero sell lifestyle not totally I'm not going to run another fund 13 years was plenty of running a fund I'm just going to work with younger analysts let them ask questions I'll ask them questions it's going to be a lot of fun now do you still follow do you manage any money for anybody other than yourself no no manage I manage money with other people for some Charities right but no I don't manage anybody's accounts you're not doing some mutual fund some pension fund turkey all right cold turkey C turkey now are you happy you did this I obv delighted it's great and you like your new life oh it's fabulous let's talk about the Clinton economic plan what do you think of it well I think his theories are excellent you know we clearly which theories are excellent well he claims that we're going to do more investing and less spending right and that statement you can't argue with less consumption more saving you absolutely have to invest more in education you have to invest more in companies you have to invest less than just spending money I mean today people are encouraged to spend you spend money let's say you put an addition on your house you spend money on that that you can get a tax deduction because because the interest on it it's tax deductible if you invest if you take your money and put it in the bank you're taxed at a very high rate they have this incredibly unfair term it's called unearned income when you every time I do all income taxes and I fill out the number for what you made the money you put in the bank unearned income what a it's it's an insulting term but anyway if you if you buy a stock and you make money on it you pay a 28% tax on it yeah guess what the capital gains rate is in Japan uh capital G rate in Japan is 10% zero zero right I mean we're not encouraging people to save we're not encouraging people to invest encour people spend you're in favor of the elimination of the capital gains tax that bush reducing it or eliminating and I'm glad that Clinton didn't raise it I mean he raised other taxes this fairness thing I understand and and what about this tax the rich business you you buy that I think fairness it's a debate what's fair I think I certainly think raising taxes is appropriate if it's same time you cut the spending it's a lot easier to raise taxes than cut spending if we can cut spending and get government's share of the gross national product reduced it'll be fair but our country works very well it's working extremely well I mean you just don't want it to get spin out of control you don't buy into the stimulus package though don't buy into that at all you believe that we don't need go out and create jobs we've had eight recessions since we're War Two we've got out of every one of them this is number nine there's nothing unique about the system we'll get out of this one in the decade of the 80s the 1980s we had 18 million jobs in the United States yeah but but soon as you say that as you know people are saying yeah Peter but look what we did when Ronald Reagan came to the White House the deficit was what $70 billion 6570 billion and it's approaching $350 billion and the amount of money that we have to spend to pay off the interest on that debt is saddling us and destroying us and destroying I agree you're right I I agree with that don't tell me how many jobs we created in 1980s because you can always create jobs if you're willing to no no that the government didn't create that right the 500 largest companies in the 80s eliminated 3 million jobs eliminated 3 million and we added 18 million these 2.2 million businesses started 2.2 million businesses started in the 80s now some of them didn't make it but if an average they have 10 employees today that's 22 million jobs what the only thing that creates wealth the only thing that creates taxes to pay for all these wonderful things is jobs there is something magic about jobs and jobs come from companies starting what I say small companies create jobs right create all the jobs so that's what I'm tring this is not voodo economics this is the real thing you have to encourage people to take some risk to put their money out and go start a business it's a risky proposition and do that by what kind of government policies other than a zero capital gains or a 10% capital gains lower interest rat what's the capital gains at now 20 28 plus it's the highest Capal gains rate we've ever had in the history of this country it's never been this High I mean it's terrible how high the capital gains rate is that's not encouraging people invest what you want you want to have lower s you want to have lower interest rates lower paperwork people start a business now they have this much paperwork to fill out on they go crazy that's crazy you got to cut that out yeah oh well okay but then without those kind of regulations then people would be creating dumping into the rivers and and not protecting the envirment these are regulations protecting the health of their employees I mean look what happened down in my home state of North Carolina because of you know the fire they had down there I mean people say if you don't have some kind of government regulation and companies aren't doing their job to protect their workers then this is not the kind of society some these regulations relate to the size of your paper clips I mean a lot of waste some paperwork is mind sometime you could do it with one piece of paper one that's it I mean that would be a good Poli I think Clinton it really wants to make it work yeah the capital system works obviously you want to protect the consumer and and business people carry to extreme when the oil Monopoly and the steel Monopoly that's wrong too I mean I think trust should be broken up there is a role for government IBM what happened to them IBM had a wonderful business they used to go to companies like Fidelity Chase Manhattan they used to come and explain to these people how to use computers yeah they didn't know how to use computers they went to companies and went in with very talented experienced people IBM and explain to people how to use computers today all these companies like Johnson and Johnson's American own Bristol Min they have people in the company already that know computers backwards and forwards the same IBM people walk in with these solutions they don't need all those people so all these companies took IBM's business away from them no no they do internally they have experts internally now that are trained in I it's called now management information systems they have all these fancy acronyms for they have skilled people all they want now is software and a cheap box they don't need all these so IBM was dealing in a system that was very effective for three or four decades now the technology has moved to the chip the technology has moved to the software it's not the box it's not the stories to so what should IBM do what should this board of directors of IBM which is looking for a new chief executive officer what should they be looking for I hear people saying they ought to just m Myerson the number two guy to Ross brow down there said maybe they ought to dismember the thing or maybe they ought to create all kinds of little entrepreneurial companies from within break it up they'll eventually they have incredible technology they're very skilled they have a lot of determination right now unfortunately it's sad they have too many employees they have too many factories they try to do it all themselves they're they're they're working the right direction Ian there's nothing wrong with the direction they're going they will turn it around they're in a hard process because the technology is advancing all the time what was the genius of Bill Gates and Microsoft which now has a higher net worth than IBM doesn't it well he there's a lot of bright people is oh my God God he his net worth alone might be more than IBM's profits I him individually yeah his Brilliance is a lot of brilliant people and and a lot of luck IBM adopted MS DOS is the operating system right they rushed the market with the first computer they needed an operating system and he had the only one if they' waited a couple years they could have used their own so MS DOS became the basic operating system of every computer whether it was a compact computer the only computer system that didn't use it was Apple Apple had their own operating system so every computer that went out there all over the world needed MS DOS he uses used that to come along with windows so he was there he was like the the gasoline when people whatever car if you had all if you had if you had the rights to all the gasoline you don't care whose cars are said another way I mean IBM was making all of these razors and and he was making all the razor blades you got it right y absolutely and then there were other people making razors to use his his blades exactly blades around no obviously he's a bright person and and Rich yeah and EDS EDS you know Ross per do you think of perau I think he's a well-meaning talented guy he's done a lot of good things in educ you vote for him for president I did you did perau was your guy y I sure did why well it was sort of a protest vote because I know in our state you know I mean in our state yeah I know in Massachusetts the Democrat was going to win anyway and I really thought his concepts of cutting down on the deficit and more investment a cutting down deficit is a good idea oh it's absolutely a good idea it's a terrific idea give me five good stocks to watch watch not to buy but just to watch five ideas that you think where people are really on the right track and created a good business not touting stocks America I just want to know what Peter likes okay well we have a company in Boston called obop pan it's a company that makes croissants and they make Breads and they have a state-of-the-art bagel they're working on I can understand that company too they're only in about 20% of the country they're starting to roll right now it's I think you know the price is fully priced and I think now is the time what it selling for what's fully priced oh I mean it's 25 times next year's earnings I mean that's very high but I think over the long period of time I'm hoping the market goes down and this stock will go down and I'm going to back up the truck and buy a lot of shares I think Now's the Time to look at cyclical stocks I think the economy is going to get better around the world in 94 it's already getting better in '93 unit even better in '94 better in '94 because right now it's slumping in Germany and it's slumping in Japan so I think now is the time to look at cyclical companies in the paper industry the aluminum industry the steel industry they've cut the cost they're the lowest cost producers in the world and when things get better they're going to make a lot of money little small companies we should look at oh this tens of thousands one small company well I guess I'd say all pans the small ones or another one would be Jay Baker is a relatively small they do it's a retailer or Super Cuts they do haircuts that's a small company Peter Lynch is back with a new book called beating the street it is always interesting to have him here uh what up on Wall Street was one of the better bests sellers uh ever to about Wall Street and it is very simple which most things are very simple Le uh and when you understand them you can understand uh what makes the world work I appreciate you being here thank sure
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