Jim Cramer: The consumer is strong; it will be difficult for the Fed to slow economy

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결론: 소비는 견조하지만 연준 긴축과 경기 둔화 우려가 공존하며, 시장은 아직 바닥을 확인하지 못했다고 본다. 은행 실적: 골드만삭스 실적이 매우 강했고 BofA는 EPS가 2센트 하회했으나 매출은 6% 증가, 비용은 1.5% 증가해 레버리지 효과가 좋다고 평가했다. 소비 동향: BofA 카드 거래량이 전년 대비 6%, 지출이 10% 이상 늘었으며 여행·경험 소비와 유가 상승에 따른 연료 지출이 두드러진다. 소비자는 강하다. 연준 관련: 강한 소비가 연준의 긴축 과제를 어렵게 만들 수 있다고 지적했다. 주택·경기: 모기지 금리 상승으로 주택 취소가 급증했고 소비자 심리는 매우 나쁘다. 세계 경제가 빠르게 둔화되는 신호가 여러 지표에서 보인다. 시장 전망: 어닝 기대치는 계속 낮아지고 있으나 멀티플 하락은 아직 충분하지 않다고 봤다. 일부 자산운용사는 현금 비중을 높이고 공매도를 고려 중이다. 자동차주: 포드(PER 6배), GM(5배)에 대해 가치가 크다고 보지만 내일 당장 실현되지는 않을 것이라고 했다. 시장은 테슬라에만 관심이 쏠려 있다. 출연자 전망: 시장이 단기에 바닥을 찍었다고 확신하지 않으며, 신중한 관망 입장이다.

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01. and when i went through it i was like wow is this exciting city is simplifying city is making money every day like you remember when they used to just they opened the door and they do that tss they do that treasury securities it is working again and i i was just she did a fantastic job i also thought that charlie sharp put together an amazing quarter uh we're used to charlie sharp having to deal with a lot of regulatory issues uh he is starting to just one by one check the boxes uh i am uh astonished that goldman could make this much money uh but i want to just disagree with the market at one point here bank of america they do okay so they missed by two cents but revenue up six percent expenses only up one point five percent that's called leverage david that's good it is good um and we're going to keep an eye on those stocks as jim mentioned of course city was a a very strong performer on friday well there you can see what we're looking for for goldman as for moynihan he is certainly of the the gentleman who runs bank of america and by the way has done so now for quite a long period of time um we do look to him as well for sort of some commentary on the consumer given their broad credit card platform and and a lot of other areas that they see consumers spending didn't really share that much in the call guys but did say for the two first two weeks of july spending's up 10 plus in transactions again rising six percent so transactions up six uh that's you know that's on credit cards i believe right and ten percent on um uh on spending strong consumer resilience is what moynihan is talking about he says they do continue to see shifts and what people are spending money on something we've talked about a a great deal of late a lot more on experiences a lot more on travel uh and obviously a bit more on fuel due to increased prices didn't you also find uh the account openings really incredible i'm starting to feel like that they're taking chair from the fintechs their digital is 48 of their banking one of the things they continue to reduce the expense rate at the branches if fewer branches but they're doing more uh look is is it is it exciting no no no no no and when i go over with brian what brian really wants to talk about is the consumer is just very strong and when you hear carl you start thinking does this make the fed's job harder uh because when the consumers are strong then you're going to have them chasing goods at the same time i i went back and forth with ivy zellman who's the dean of housing cancellations have jumped big yes uh ever since the mortgage rate started jump it started just exploding yes rocket ship yes people are walking away they don't want their homes they are excited it's on my list well it's not positive but maybe it's getting negative but i mean on that point jim there is you know the conversation that i'll have with a lot of asset managers goes along those lines the world's decelerating very quickly you're seeing it in so many different sizes including home prices including cancellations which you just cited consumer sentiment is terrible um yeah people are very sad there's a gloom in this country it's one of the reasons i'm wanting ken langone to start mad money i i think the capitalism is the greatest force for social change and when we look at bank of america we see what they're doing for minority businesses we just say okay look it's different world it's a positive world let's not dump on these guys these guys are really doing something but you know what happens dave people just say we're going in the wrong direction that we may be going the wrong direction and maybe people aren't buying that much at retail but the consumer's balance sheet's amazing they're going the wrong direction at least they're not going to be off the cliff that is true but as for the markets and wondering whether we're going to continue to go off a cliff you know it's just very difficult time to try to assess things again we get back to the fed but those conversations typically lead to to the person on the other end of the phone saying i'm not ready to to buy a thing right now and in fact i'm happy to be with a large cash position if i feel comfortable shorting the market i may even choose to do that i still don't feel like we're there yet we're going to you know continue to take the bar down in terms of earnings and yeah multiples have revised lower but not low enough but that's okay so ford is selling at at six gm at five was the downgrade today yeah downgrade today well david it's six times is that helpful it can go to five times i don't know what to tell you just i mean you know i think there's great value in ford and gm it just won't be realized tomorrow everybody wants tesla they just want tesla all they care about is tesla