저자: BaduVieira · 외국인
요약 보기
하워드 막스의 투자 원칙을 소개하는 영상으로, 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없고 투자 철학과 방법론을 설명한다. 핵심 원칙 1: 2차 수준의 사고(second-level thinking). 남들과 다르게 생각해야 평균 이상의 수익을 낼 수 있으며, 남들과 같은 결론이면 평균 수익에 수렴한다. 핵심 원칙 2: 가치 투자. 가격과 내재가치의 차이를 구분하고, 내재가치는 미래 현금흐름의 현재가치로 추정하며, 안전마진(margin of safety)을 확보해 매수해야 한다고 설명한다. 핵심 원칙 3: 시장 사이클 이해. 강세장은 초기(선견자), 중기(개선 인식), 후기(영원한 상승 믿음)의 3단계로 나뉘며, 사이클의 위치를 파악하는 것이 중요하다고 강조한다. 타이밍에 대한 입장: 극단적 상황에서만 시도할 수 있으나 정확한 고점·저점 예측은 어렵고, 일상적 변동에 대한 단기 예측은 피하는 것이 낫다고 한다. 막스 본인은 50년간 다섯 번만 시도했다고 언급한다. 결론: 대부분의 투자자에게는 펀드·ETF를 통한 분산투자와 장기 보유(buy and hold)가 적절하며, 평균 이상의 수익을 추구하는 것은 소수에게만 해당된다고 정리한다. 영상 자체는 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 전망을 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Howard Marks is one of the greatest active investors and author of one of the best books on investing I have ever read, which, incidentally, he was going to write after retiring, but he rushed to finish it for a very good reason . Warren Buffett wrote him a letter in 2009 saying that if he wrote a book, he would give him a quote for the cover.
I think you understand why he anticipated his plans, right? The name of the book is " The Most Important Thing for the Investor ". He describes what would be the most important things for the investor seeking above-average market returns: investing actively and identifying opportunities and risks before most others.
When he sat down to write a sample of the book for the publisher, he says he simply wrote something he had never thought about before. He sat down and wrote, which is actually the first piece of advice we'll see here in this video. I'm Badu Vieira, investment specialist, certified here for another "Value in Action" video.
If you like this type of content, please leave a like on this video; It helps me a lot and motivates me to keep producing, as well as getting YouTube to show this video to more people. And look how crazy this thing he put on paper is, which makes perfect sense to me, but it's not for everyone either.
He wrote: "The most important thing for the investor is second-level thinking." And what's this about second-level thinking? Badu? Please, what 's that all about! The idea behind second-level thinking is this: doing what most people do and getting the average return is very easy. And it's really easy, is n't it?
We just need to buy an ETF that tracks the market index and we're done , right? But many people want to have an above-average return. In fact, everyone wants it. Some acknowledge that they do not have the conditions or the time for it, while others believe they have the ability and can achieve above-average performance.
But therein lies the crux of the matter, my friends. Investing is practically a competition, we already know that, right? There is a very large group wanting to find the best results, the best opportunities, and obtain the best returns. So, if someone finds it first, the prices go up and you won't be able to buy it cheap anymore.
So, if you think like everyone else , you'll reach the same conclusions and decisions, and therefore your performance will tend toward the average. It's inevitable. In other words, to achieve above-average performance, we, as investors, must think differently from the majority. The famous Think Different, right?
Advertising slogan created by Apple in 1997 that, ironically, became the most valuable company in the world. That's crazy, isn't it? Think differently. Your view on a particular stock or on the market should be different from the view of the majority. Sometimes the market thinks a stock is great, a good opportunity, but you might think the company is good, but expensive, for example, or the market might be very pessimistic about a stock.
And you may consider that pessimism excessive and that the stock is even very cheap. In short, what this means is that we earn much more money than average if we have different visions, opinions, and attitudes . However, there is a big " however". We need to be right for this to work. It's simple. What is the probability that I am right and most people are wrong?
For my out-of-the-box thinking to put money in my pocket, I need to be right. It is as difficult to be right when you think differently from the majority as it is to maintain that position long enough to be proven right. Thinking differently doesn't guarantee that you'll hit the right notes and identify the best opportunities, but it's necessary, and that involves understanding a lot about the sector, the business, and evaluating the company in a more qualitative than just quantitative way.
Following the herd is almost always less lucrative, yes, but it's also much more comfortable. And after second- level thinking, the second piece of advice from Howard Marks that I brought here for above-average returns is to know the difference between price and value. Look at this, right? Advice from a colleague or a hunch based on our intuition are not good ways to choose an action.
According to him, there is only one smart way to invest: through value investing . It's simple, but it's not easy, as he always says and as was even in the title and cover of the video. In value investing, you need to determine the intrinsic value of the company before investing. And that intrinsic value is determined, primarily, obviously, by the present value of future cash flows, something very difficult to determine, especially in companies with very high growth or technology, for example.
Therefore, in some cases, according to him, one must be flexible when conducting analyses; High-growth companies will always be more expensive, but for more predictable and established companies it is less complicated to determine the intrinsic value, or to estimate it. Obviously, only someone who knows how to do this and do it well.
However, even if you get the valuation right, events can occur that no one could foresee and impact the value of the business, even if only temporarily. That's why it's important to remember the concept of margin of safety: paying a lower price than what you found as the intrinsic value of the stock.
Investing with a margin of safety allows you to discover that some of your expectations were incorrect, but that everything is still okay, you understand? In other words, we have two major challenges here. Arriving at the intrinsic value of the company is the first step, and finding opportunities to buy it with a margin of safety.
Both are not easy things to do, but if done well, they will greatly increase your portfolio's return and, incidentally, reduce the chances of loss. While it's very easy to get returns that follow the market average, it's very difficult to get above- average returns, right? Howard Marks states that, for most people, the best thing to do is to invest through funds, ETFs, or even build a diversified portfolio to buy and hold most of the assets and accept the returns, which tend toward the average and, in the long run, are also very good.
And the third and most important principle for knowing the best times to buy and sell stocks, according to this mega investor, is to understand the cycles and position yourself within them. He argues that this is fundamental, but also makes it clear that buying and holding will always be better than buying on the upside and selling on the downside.
It's obvious, isn't it?, that, despite everything, many people manage to do the feat of buying on the rise and selling on the fall. According to him, the best thing to do is to understand the cycles and control our behavior. And it would really be wonderful if we could do this consistently, right? You'd probably get returns that would make "buy and hold" look like a savings account if you could just time the moves right.
Therefore, he makes it clear that few will manage to do it consistently, but for anyone who wants to try, understanding the cycles and not giving in to herd behavior is fundamental. The market is made up of upward cycles, which we call bull markets, and downward cycles, known as bear markets. Understanding this is fundamental.
And according to Howard Marks, the bull market is divided into three phases. Phase one is when some more visionary people begin to believe that things will improve. Phase two is when most people perceive that things are really improving. And phase three is when everyone comes to the conclusion that things will always get better and that the tree will grow to the sky.
For the investor, it is very important to know exactly where we are in the process, because that will determine what we will do rationally. People who are lucky or skilled at identifying phase one early on are able to take advantage of the best opportunities. Already in phase three of the bull market, buying becomes more dangerous.
He argues that it is necessary to understand where we are in the cycle and what motivates investors. This is one of the most valuable insights for understanding how the market and its cycles work. In my opinion , we need to understand what motivates most investors. And he uses a very good phrase to summarize what happens in a bull market .
The saying goes: what wise people do at the beginning, fools do at the end. Look at that great phrase. This also applies to the famous bear market, right? The bear market, which is more or less the opposite, begins at the end of the bull market and ends with panic, discouragement, and depression, causing stock prices to plummet.
Although theoretically it may seem simple to know what part of the cycle we are in, it is far from easy. How is the economy? What is the mood of investors? What are the current levels of interest rates, are creditors optimistic or not, is GDP growing or contracting , and what is the state of the country's debt?
According to him, all of that is already difficult to analyze together to understand the cycle. And then there are unexpected events, right?, which are impossible to foresee, otherwise we wouldn't call them unexpected. In other words, Howard Marks himself states that it is impossible to look at something that resembles a crystal ball and know exactly whether we are already reaching the top or whether the bottom is approaching.
But there are indicators that can be observed to get an idea of the degree of optimism or pessimism in the market. Trying to hit the right moment. According to him, you may succeed or fail, but if you fail, at least you'll take something of value home, which is the lesson learned, right? This is what Howard Marks himself claims to have done and that it worked for him: that when situations are very extreme and you have enough experience to infer whether stocks are very expensive or very cheap, you should do it with risk management, yes, but it doesn't happen very often.
He himself states that he only got this right in his attempts because he only tried it five times in 50 years. At the extremes it is more obvious, although most ignore it, but between highs and lows on a daily basis, when the stock market rises 5%, falls 10%, that is, when the market is somewhat lukewarm, it is better to resist the temptation to try to anticipate very short-term movements.
According to him, buying when pessimism is very high and everyone believes the world is going to end can work for the investor, if they are intelligent, patient, and knowledgeable. The same applies to selling in the face of extremely exaggerated optimism. And even if you're convinced about your analysis, it's important to be prepared to be wrong, okay?
Nobody gets it right all the time. And the most important thing is to recognize the mistake as quickly as possible and learn from it. If, when trying to be an active investor, you manage to surpass the average and be right 60% of the time and wrong 40%, you will already have one of the best returns in history.
Perhaps learning from mistakes over time will increase your chances of future successes. He sums this up himself in a brilliant sentence, doesn't he? Experience is what you get when you don't get what you wanted. If you buy a stock, for example, at $100, the fact that you bought it at $100 shouldn't influence your decisions if that stock falls to $50.
When this happens, you shouldn't be forced to sell or buy more. You should analyze the action as if it was never yours, right? To be an active investor, it is necessary to study a lot about assets and understand how the economy works and, mainly, how the human mind works. Not everyone is going to be above average successful in investing, but that's perfectly fine .
If it's not for you, if it's not for me, no problem and everything is fine. Sometimes being content with buying and holding, the good old "buy and hold" and average returns can be very good, especially if you save the absurd time you would spend trying to get above-average returns to earn more money and increase your contributions over time.
All good ? That was today's video. I'll say goodbye here . Hugs and see you in the next video. Thank you, Dad. Ah.
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