저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 다음 약세장이 본인 생애 최대 규모일 것이라며 부채 급증이 원인이라고 진단한다. 현재 시장은 약세장 진입 중이거나 마지막 강세 단계일 수 있으며, 비관론이 커서 일시적 반등이 있을 수 있으나 그것이 마지막 랠리가 될 것이라고 본다. 부채 해결 방법으로는 고성장, 디폴트, 고인플레이션이 있는데 정부가 인플레를 의도적으로 유지하기보다 중앙은행의 실수로 인플레가 지속될 가능성이 크다고 본다. 1970년대와 유사한 스태그플레이션 시나리오가 더 가깝다고 보며, 금과 은 등 귀금속은 장기적으로 크게 오를 것이라고 본다. 현재 가장 매력적인 자산으로 은을 꼽는다. 은은 최고점 대비 약 70% 하락했고 금은 약 15% 하락해 가격 기준으로 더 싸다고 본다. 농산물은 오랜 기간 부진해 역발상 매력이 있다고 보며, 전기차 확산으로 구리·리튬·납 등 원자재 수요가 장기적으로 늘어 일부 원자재는 크게 오를 것이라고 본다. 에너지는 기존 매장량 감소로 석유·가스 가격이 장기적으로 상승할 것으로 보며, 우크라이나 전쟁이 끝나면 일시 하락 후 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고 본다. 재생에너지는 바람직하지만 보조금 의존으로 아직 경제성이 부족하고, 유가가 배럴당 200달러 수준이 되면 경쟁력을 갖출 것이라고 본다. 자녀에게는 역사와 시장 순환을 이해시키고, 본인이 잘 아는 분야와 열정에만 투자하라고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
in a recent interview of yours you mentioned that the next Crisis will probably be the largest one in your life you know would you like to share your view there Well Ron you remember 2008 we had a big problem it was a huge worldwide financial and economic problem because of too much debt since 2009 we're on the dead everywhere has skyrocketed it's gone up by many many percentage points not just in America even China has a lot of debt now 25 years ago China didn't have any idea virtually no them so everywhere has built up huge amounts of debt so I I I thought it was just a simple statement that it the next bear market and we've always had bear markets and we always will the next bear Market has to be huge the worst in my lifetime because the debt is so staggering in the last few years is this happening now or you are still waiting for some form of a Black Swan event well the the debt goes higher every day every hour since we've been talking that everywhere has gotten higher and higher uh it seems that we may be in the bear market now uh if we're not it's a maybe in the last stages of the bull market my own expectation and it would run on bad at Market Tommy but because we will have one there's a lot of pessimism around right now so usually when there's so much pessimism something happens to college people to get optimistic for a while if that happened I mean suppose this is not a prediction this is an analogy Suppose there were peace in Ukraine the markets would go up a lot but that would be the last rally as far as I can see in other words basically we may have another rally but we're getting close to the end either we're in the bear market now or it's very soon going to be here to solve a debt crisis ultimately you could only have free Solutions either you have huge economic growth so you grow out of the problem or either you default your debt on number three you have high inflation do you think it is government's best interest to actually keep inflationary pressure high keep inflation rate high well these guys are not that smart Ron you act like they know what they're doing you act like they sit around and say ah what we should do now is inflate our currency and that way we'll get rid of the debt these are not very smart people that's why they work for the government they can't get a real job so it is most likely that we will accidentally continue to have inflation you know it's only a year ago that they told us there was no inflation and then they said oh it's transitory don't worry it's not going to last long and now of course they tell us they have it under control I've learned long ago Ron that these guys don't know what they're doing and we should not listen to them in American history we've only had probably two good Central Bankers in our history by the way Americans had three central banks in our history the first two disappeared they've made so many mistakes that they disappeared this one might disappear too eventually because they don't know what they're doing either but no central banks they have a lot of press and they tell everybody how smart they are but most of them are not very smart they are bureaucrats and academics and they make as many mistakes they may not try to keep their jobs they don't care about you Ron they care about their jobs and that's what they try to maintain so will they get it right probably not so do you think we're going back to a period like the 1970s with stagflation and all that I would suspect if if I had to say what we're going back to like it would be more like the 1970s than most other things because they have printed a lot of money they continue to print money and when I'll say they I mean most central banks around the world think that that's the way to solve problems so if we are not but that's the way they think so if we are indeed going back to the 1970s what's a good investment solution well if you want to make money there were people who made money in the 1970s it's not the same thing remember in the 1970s the U.S was still a creditor Nation now we're the largest debtor nation in history there was Soviet Union in the 1970s it was red China still red China but now it's much more the much different kind of a economy so many things have changed since then but money printing has not changed the bureaucrats have not changed so it might I suspect that if things do calm down for a while and then the economy slows they'll print more money because that's all they know to do and the inflation will come back and go higher you generated over four thousand percent in the 1970s what were some of your ideas and traits during that period well we've we had a lot of things and we used a lot of Leverage which I don't do so much anymore but we shorted the pound sterling that was you know in 1976 the pound sterling went bankrupt England went bankrupt that was a successful trade we owned a lot of Commodities because there was so much inflation we owned things that were going up in value uh we owned a variety of things but Ron that was that was a long long time ago telling you what I did then it's not going to do any most people many any good now in 2023.
going back to Commodities you've always been a big fan of Commodities and you call the last commodity super cycle with a very timely publication of your Commodities in 2004 and and really we saw a commodity boom and do you think we are entering another Super Cycle again well whether it's a super cycle or not I don't really know uh it doesn't matter if you own Commodities and they go up whatever it is you make money uh and I suspect we're going to see you know because of the uh crisis the epidemic it's affected Supply and a lot of Commodities and if you have lower Supply ultimately you're going to have much higher prices plus there are changes taking place in the world it looks like we're going to have electric vehicles well electric vehicles use several times more copper lead lithium use a lot more of some things than but petrol uh Vehicles so there are fundamental changes taking place in the world which will mean that some Commodities will go much higher over the next decade or two what Commodities do you like most right now well I guess if I was buying something today it would probably be agriculture because agriculture has been such a disaster for so long the average age of farmers in America is 58 years old the average age in Japan is 66.
I mean more people commit suicide in the UK and agriculture than any other industry I mean agriculture has been a disaster for a long time and usually disasters lead to Bull markets we've got to wear clothes we got to eat food and so unless something dramatic changes we are going to eat food for the rest of our lives you mentioned earlier about silver um what about gold gold has seen a sell-off since last year um Gold Silver Platinum any particular favorite of yours well I own all of the above a gold and see if I were buying something today and I'm not buying any of them today I would buy silver you know Silver's down 70 percent from its all-time high gold is only down I don't know 15 from its all-time high So based on price alone silver is cheaper today and if I were buying either of them I would buy silver I will be buying more of both somewhere along the line I don't know when but no before this is over silver and gold will go much much much higher all precious metals will go much much higher what about oil and gas and coal prices you know gas prices in Europe is in brand equivalent terms at around 300 per barrel do you have any comments on the energy crisis in Europe and how it will play out well some of the current at least temporary part of the energy crisis is because of the war in Ukraine and cutting off Russian supplies uh let's hope that that's not a permanent State of Affairs let's hope that this war is not going to last forever but having said them known reserves of hydrocarbons do continue to decline they've been going down for a long time known reserves now for a while that was tempered by the fracking you know fracking came along with fracking turned into a bubble we still have fracking but the bubble is not there anymore so it has helped but known reserves still continue to decline and even with fracking out there so no we're going to have higher prices of oil and gas natural gas in the future until eventually maybe we will have electric vehicles maybe we will have solar power and and you know all the rest of them but in the meantime I would not sell my energy uh well if the war ends obviously energy is going to come down for a while that would probably be a time to buy more energy and what's your take on Ukraine and Russia right now do you think this will end soon or this is going to linger on in the foreseeable future well you know the problem is America and NATO stumbled clumsily got us into this war with stuff that they started doing back in 2008 2014.
finally of course Russia invade I don't I'm not I'm not defending Russia don't get me wrong I'm not defending Mr Putin invading or anything but finally you know Putin felt he had to do something uh that's his decision not certainly not mine uh and now unfortunately that War's gotten deeper and deeper than any of them wanted including America including Russia so it looks it's going to go on for a while I don't know what what good is doing anybody including Mr Putin so I'm sure both sides would like to get out of this somehow the problem is when Wars start people usually suddenly realize oh this is crazy let's get out of this but it's hard to get out of the war once it started for many many reasons so it should end it should end tomorrow it should never have started I see that everybody wants out hopefully somebody will get us out of it well if this conflict doesn't end and the energy crisis continues that means Renewables must Step Up do you have any views on Renewables technology are you a fan of wind or solar Quran we all want clean air nobody says oh I love dirty air I love dirty water no we all want clean air um the problem is it's not efficient yet it's not competitive yet um yes we do have solar power we do have wind power Etc but much of it has subsidies and if you have subsidized power of course it's it's competitive for a while but it's still got subsidies and that's part of the problem with these Alternatives right now they're still not economically competitive now if oil goes to 200 a barrel they'll be competitive and they will have bigger and bigger markets but in the meantime the problem is there as much as we want clean air they still cost money and when people go turn the switch they want the lights to go on and if the lights don't go on they're going to complain a great deal yes we are drawing to a close one last question for you Jim um you've written books and you wrote books even for your children giving them life advice so as you painted a very dim Outlook in the in the years to come what is your advice to your children what should they do where should they go but yes I have portrayed a more bare markets and more economic problems but that's been happening since the beginning of time they always happen some of them are worse than others and some last much longer than others I guess the main thing I want to make sure my children know is and they understand history and how the world works and that we have always had bear markets and we always will so that's important for them to know the main thing for them to know is only invest in what you yourself know a lot about or whatever passion you have in life that's what you should pursue if you want to be a gardener go ahead and be a gardener if that's your real passion just figure out what you love the most don't listen to your teachers your family your friends figure out what you love the most and pursue it no matter how crazy in fact if it sounds crazy really pursue it the crazier it sounds the better do what you love thank you so much for your advice Jim and I'll see you soon in Hong Kong or in Singapore thank you so much or somewhere around somewhere let's hope so great not in quarantine I hope I don't see you in quarantine sounds good thank you so much thank you bye-bye
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