저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 명확한 종목·지수 가격 예측 발언은 거의 없고, 중소형 성장주 투자 철학(SMILE)과 스타트업 투자 기준(FIST)을 강조한 일반론 위주 영상. 투자 철학 SMILE: Small in size, Medium in experience(경영진 15~20년 경험 중시), Large in aspiration(큰 목표), Extra large market potential(확장 가능한 시장). 내부 요인(경영·실행)은 통제 가능하고 외부 요인은 통제 불가하다는 운전 비유를 들었다. 스타트업 FIST: Focus(집중), Frugality(검소함), Idea(확장 가능한 아이디어), Struggle(끈기·플랜B 보유). 초기 투자 사례: 한 창업자에게 10분 만에 약 4,500만 루피(지분 20%)를 투자했고, 이후 자금 부족 시 무이자 성격의 신용한도(CC limit)를 제공해 재무 규율을 강조했다. 시장 구조: 인도 통신(Jio·Bharti), 항공(IndiGo 약 65%), 페인트(Asian Paints 등) 등 독과점·해자(moat) 기업은 높은 밸류에이션을 받으며, 시장 공포기에 매수하는 것이 낫다고 언급. 일상 투자 습관: 아침에 시장 뉴스에 휘둘리지 말고 편안하게 시작할 것을 조언. 개별 종목·지수 가격 방향 예측, 목표가, 금리·환율 전망은 발언되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Hi sir Alright we have our next guests here for the fireside live chat and I would request them to kindly come up on stage. Please put your hands together for the Founder and Group CEO of Mehta Wealth Limited and an epitome of leadership. Mr. Krunal Mehta. Welcome Kunal. Who will be joined by an Indian investor, our director at Kirdia Securities and Atul Auto Ltd.
Part of Atul Greentech Mr Vijay Keria. Welcome gentleman over to you so here we have Mr Vijay Kedia I am sure he knows no introduction he is an investor a very insightful and a very successful investor but more than that his songs are very famous on YouTube and now it has become so that wherever he goes no one can take him out without a selfie.
So when we brought him from the room, at least 25-50 people came back with their selfies. So I have the privilege to moderate him for the third time in Surat. And Vijay Bhai, the videos of yours that I took for moderation were seen by lakhs of people, so I also became a little famous along with you, so when the IVY people told me that you have to moderate them again, I could not say no, I said if this is a chance then you should take it, so thanks to IVY team for making this happen and I will tell you Vijay Bhai very honestly that these four founders have created a stir in the startup ecosystem of entire India.
So a big round of alos to Rachit Podar Prakashniwal Mehul and Sharad thodi kahan pe agar woh hai yahan pe to please stand up. Well they are coming. Ok fine. So Vijay Bhai we will start with this. So Vijay Bhai is an investor in the public markets but here we have invited him to share his wisdom on the startup also because he is also an investor in the startup ecosystem.
So there will be a lot of knowledge sharing on things that can happen for startup founders today. So let's start with Vijay Bhai. The question which I have and which you have shared on television lot of times but to set the context we will start with your investment style smile which perfectly matches your personality smile you are always a smiling and jolly personality so your public space investment philosophy smile and then we will come to the startup space so can you just set the context what exactly is the smile so thank you very much brother for this wonderful introduction which I probably do not deserve.
I am trying to become that for myself. So my concept of smile is S stands for small in size. So usually I invest in the companies like suppose in a sector there are five companies and 10 companies and six seven companies. So usually my focus goes on the company which is the smallest, may not be the smallest but small inside that particular sector because I believe that small is any small even if you look at the animals, the smallest animals turn around fast.
So if an elephant has to turn around, it will take time, if it has to run, it will take time but if you imagine if a cat has to turn around, it can do it quickly. So I feel that to make money in the stock market in the public market, we need a cheetah, all the shares are running, all the animals are running, but the cheetah is the one which runs the fastest.
So it remains like this in an empty mind. It is not necessary that all the cheetahs are found. Sometimes we find ants instead of cheetahs. But the planning is that here also it should be small in size and secondly MI of Smile is medium in experience, so I feel that for any company, for growth and success in any sector and for investors and even for the company to create something big and to earn big money, management is most important.
So I have said it many times, like the Vidya guy asked what are the three things that are needed in life, then he said entertainment, entertainment, so if someone asks me what is the most needed thing in investment, then I say management, management, if there is management then entertainment will also come and money will also come, so management has the biggest contribution, another example of this is that the driver of a vehicle plays the most important role inside the vehicle, if you understand me from here, 100 km.
If I have to go ahead or go to Ahmedabad or anywhere else, even if I have a Lamborghini, I will go in it, but if the driver is inexperienced, he will crash the car and my life will also be lost. And if I am going in a small car, even in Alto. I am going in a small car and if the driver is experienced then he can take me to a safe destination.
It is also possible that another vehicle may come and hit me. For safety, it is not necessary to drive yourself empty. The person next to me is also driving along. You also have to be careful that he does not come and hit you. So I compare it in the market. Internal factors and external factors. The internal factors are in your hands that my car is good, the parts are good, it is reliable, I have fuel and my driver is experienced.
My path is fine. Everything goes on equally. External factors are not within your control. If a tree fell yesterday, or if a plane fell two-three days ago, or if another vehicle hit you, then this is an external factor and it is not in your hands. By saying this we think that it is again the will of God, whatever God does, that is what Ram Rasi keeps, why should he do the big branch, then it comes inside him.
But you should focus on what is within your control. So that is the medium and experience, if there is any management then I feel that one should have 15-20 years of management experience. Within 15-20 years, there are three or four big ups and downs in our life, mostly we learn more in the downfalls.
I also have a quote Kunal Bhai that when we are right we earn when we are wrong we learn. So whatever learning we do, we learn only when we are wrong. When we are right, we do not learn it, rather we become blind that everything is going well. So this policy is fine. Like everyone is a genius in speed.
So my song is also Teji Mein Hai Sab Genius, everyone thinks themselves to be a hero. The same geniuses who became zero again in the storm of recession. A new life begins in the making and breaking of things. Still don't lose your senses. Whether the party has begun, everyone is a genius in the bull market.
So by saying this he is not your example. Many times people tell me that I post it on Twitter as well as on Instagram. Many times people come to me and say, look sir, I have been in the market for three years and I came to the market and did this, I did that and I earned Rs 5 lakh, I earned Rs 10 lakh, I did this, I did that.
So when people say things like I did it, I did it, I don't like it. So if I have someone close to me or I feel from his face that yes, brother, he will not feel bad, then I tell him, do one thing, I have done it, I have done it, stop saying this here, friend, you did nothing, this happened to you, because what did we do, if we did it, then tell me that I will do this in future, if you guarantee me that I earned 10 lakhs earlier, now give me a guarantee that I will earn 10 lakhs again in 6 months, then you will know, then I said, the market gave you this opportunity, the Indian economy gave you this opportunity, the stock market gave you this opportunity, and the euphoric bull market gave you this opportunity, then you took advantage of it, it is yours that you took advantage of it properly, but will you repeat it again or nothing is predictable in the market here, so coming to your point, by saying this, if the management has seen recessions twice, thrice in 15-20 years, the forex has fallen He has seen the problems and the war, he has seen everything inside him, so he has learnt from his experiences, so he has such a chance for a company that he can take it forward properly.
By saying this, that MI which is medium and experience and the third one is large in aspiration. So the aspiration of the management should be large. He should be bigger than his status. He has to dream during the day. Not to dream at night. Dreams come automatically at night. Day dreams are seen. So his aspiration to dream during the day should be large.
Today my company is worth 100 50 200 5000 crores. I want to become 2000-5000 crores in 5 years. Later I want to go from regional to national. We have to go from national to international. Because if the founder or the promoter of the company does not become a millionaire from a lakhpati or a billionaire from a lakhpati, then we shareholders will not be able to become a millionaire from a thousandpati because the cake should be big.
So it depends on us that if the driver is driving for 500 kilometers then he should not feel sleepy on the way. His aspiration should remain alive. I have 500 km. I must not sleep till then, I must remain alert and I must keep moving. So it is important that this goal is large in aspiration and it stands for extra large market potential.
Because maybe my vision is too good. I am the promoter or I am the CEO of the company or I am the key person of the company. I have vision and I have experience too. I also have the courage to play with clothes. But my market potential is not much. I reached a turnover of Rs 2000 crore. The market size of each product is Rs 3000 crore, Rs 4000 crore.
Then how will I work on it ? So it should be endless. Its market potential is also extra large in market potential. So a company can go from micro cap to small cap or startup to small cap to micro cap or small cap, mid cap and large cap. So this is its matrix. So Smile is small in size, M is medium in experience, large in aspirations and extra large in market potential.
So this is your philosophy for the listed space. Similarly, your philosophy for the startup space would be a different thing. Maybe you can tell me that because a lot of people don't know that you are also investing in startups and you have invested in 15-18 startups, can you tell me something about that for startups, so what is there for startups as well, the principle of more and less, which is smile, is applicable but medium and experience is not applicable in it because otherwise its name is not a startup, then it is starting a startup, so in this, but within more and less, the last two, that is large in aspiration and extra large market potential, are applicable in it, in startups also, before that I coined an acronym, I call it fist, so like fist fist, so Vijay bhai, you will have to explain this in some different way, in your own way, by singing your song being a song or in some other way, you can tell me about the fist, I will just tell you its differentiation, so the meaning of fist should be that the management which should be there is the most important, that which I have done I have also invested in startups like B and I have read about these people and must have met at least 100 startups.
So what I understood is that the most important thing in them is that firstly, they should have focus on how much they are focused on the work they are doing and secondly, there is another F of F and that is frugal. Frugality is very important because if they do not have frugality because they always have problems with money, they always have problems with capital.
If they are not frugal from the beginning and are not able to save money properly and spend money properly, then where they have to spend ₹2, they will spend four and where they have to spend four, they will spend one, then there will be a mismatch for them. By saying this, this focus and thriftiness is very important and in the Feast, of course, the most important thing becomes the idea on which they are focusing and on what they are investing capital.
That idea is variant, if you understand that it has all the other qualities but if their idea is not like what I said, extra large market potential, if that idea is not like that then He will stop after breaking a 100 meter race. So nothing big is going to be created in it. So this 'ai' of this saying is very important.
And the last ST that remains is struggle. There must be such struggle within them. I should have such a stubbornness that I want to live here, die here, go here, apart from this, this is life for me. I think such a feeling should come inside him. Then you go and get that success. If they have a plan B and a plan C.
If any such startup talks to you like this, if it works then it works, otherwise I will do this. Otherwise, I will do that. So I always say that those who have a plan B nearby. They also have Plan G. He has all the plans with him. So this is a thick thing inside it. These qualities should be present within him, these qualities should be present within him.
Now you can explain it in a different way. Vijay's approach is like this, once I invested in my first startup, probably in 2016, in a company, so I understood it completely, observed its characteristics, its nature and later I noticed its journey. Now that company has also been listed and some of its initials, so when I invested, at that time it was just an idea worth around 1.5-2 crores, I invested on the idea, then invested on the idea, its market cap was 1400-1500 crores, so I am the largest shareholder in it, by the grace of God, so do you want to not name it because it is a listed company, so as per CB there is no need to give the name, if it was a public or private company, I would have told you the name, this is just for your reference, sorry for that, so whatever I understood from it, I will tell you that, please please friends, I have only two-three questions, rest I will leave it up to you, please feel free to ask anyone.
Question: You come across, so I have written that the first founder who came to me came in an auto rickshaw and was wearing a suit like you, you come in Mercedes or BMW. That poor guy came in an auto wearing a suit. So this is the story of every founder. I am not saying anything bad about him in this.
This is the real story out. If it is a real story then he has come to present himself so whatever skills he had, he brought them to me and so it is a good thing in that and he sat with me for 10 minutes and after that he had only an idea, in the movie Trishul Amitabh Bachchan says that I don't have even a penny in my pocket and I have come to do a deal of 5 lakhs, so this is the story of a startup of people who have an idea, this is very good, so he came and he must have sat for 10 minutes, in 10 minutes I gave him maybe ₹45 lakhs, yes and ₹45 lakhs is 20% of the company, I have been sitting with you for an hour, so I can take ₹45 crores from you, I have been sitting with you for an hour, so I can take ₹4 crores, yes I can take, but I did not ask for it, I should not have asked for it, this is a good lesson for startup founders, who said that you should ask, who is the owner of Apple?
Who is Apple Steve, Steve Jobs and now this is our Tim Cook, Tim Cook had said yes, yes sorry, that was old, Tim Cook said that I have seen one thing in life that if you want any favor from anyone, if you have any expectation from anyone, then do not be shy, you must ask from him, perhaps he had said that if something like this comes to my mind, then you must ask from him, he told that it is my experience that whenever I have asked for any favor from anyone, I have got it, so I have learnt this from him that if I want any favor, I ask politely, okay, if he has given it then he has given it, otherwise what did he take from me, so the guy came to be in wearing suit, which I told you, I took 20% from him in 10 minutes, 45, he had only an idea, he had nothing else, when I see, as I told him, then I understood that I have a song, that I am an investor, friends, I am a traveler.
No no sorry, it's not that one, it's the other one, friend, songs keep revolving in my mind. The rest of the mind is blank. That song is my heart's peace. So he said that I just mixed some of that song with it and wrote it rough just like that. So he comes and says, oh my investor, if you want to disrupt something then give me money, like he comes and says this to me, I told him, oh my startup man, if I lose my sleep then please sing it, so it is written like this with it, so please sing it now, please sing a song, yes it is possible to sing a song, friends, that door was closed, people might run away brother, my voice is not that good there, so don't go by the voice only, that is why go to the lesson and oh my, he comes and says to me, suppose or any startup, this is made for everyone in general, the startup which I made for them, understand for example, oh my investor, if you want to disrupt something then please give me some money.
So what does the investor say to the founder? Oh, please tell me something so that I can lose my sleep in my startup. Please tell me some idea which will take away my sleep. Many people come like this asking for money. So this is the beginning of any investor and founder, is n't it, who is the startup here brother?
This is no one with the startup startup startup startup. So where did you bring me here brother? So the name is startup. Well, only one person is sitting idle, sir. Ok. So what happens generally is that the investor asks the startup, like you just took me down, so when I met 810 people, whoever I met 101 people from all the startups, I asked them the same thing, brother, what is it, what is the detailed story, tell me how much money have you invested in it, what is the skin in the game in the company, every investor will ask the same thing, yes brother, you have told me the story, it is like being a character in a story, how much money have you invested here, or are you just telling me fairy tales, so I also ask the startup the same thing, and like I was sitting with you just now, I asked many investors, they said everyone tries this first, so what does that poor founder say, when he gets money, why does he come to me, actually what does he say, I asked him brother, how much money did you invest, then he says, I can often stand up even after falling alone, if you hold my hand, I can change the world, I have asked you for the world, now my love, decide for yourself, that duration.
What happens is that the poor guy is given money and he starts his journey. In this way, by using all means, money, punishment and discrimination, the poor fellow moves a little ahead. But we all know that the game of sunshine and shadow starts again in life. Then some problem or the other arises. Then things do not happen as a person thinks.
Problem arises. I also had a startup to which I gave money and it worked very well for two-three years. He reached a certain level and then one day he came and told me that he did not have the money to pay my salary. Yes, literally, he said that the company will have to be closed after three-four years.
I do n't have money to pay salaries. So I said, if there is no money then what is the point of being so scared ? What solution did you find? So I don't know, I got scared. I don't know what will happen now? Anyway, he was very disappointed. So I gave him a small credit line because I wanted to inculcate financial discipline in him, so instead of money, I gave him a credit line, saying that this much money is for you, whenever you need it, you can take it from me and you can give me interest on it, CC limit, CC limit, so it means you will take interest from the company, I have no interest in earning interest, I could have given him the money like this also, but then that would not be financial discipline, you make the most mistakes in life when you have liquidity.
When you have a lot of money and less ideas, then you can make big mistakes. The variant or should be such that if the money is less and the idea is very big then you will think frugally and you will invest after careful consideration. Same thing happens in our life also. So I told him that I will give you credit, I will give you credit line or CC limit, whatever it is, I will give you 10 taka, whatever it is, I do n't care, I will take minimum interest in one way and return the money to you and me, if you get the money, consider it as someone who needs it, return my money, do n't keep it as dowry, okay, so to bring in financial discipline, I said this, then he was nervous at first, then the second stanza of the same song of the same movie came to him, seeing what you have done, you got scared brother.
Right now this is the first floor. You are already scared. What will happen to the dreams? Just think, do n't be afraid of difficulties like this. In the beginning, my answer was that brother, difficulties will keep coming in life, the king falls in the battlefield, so how can the children fall, those who walk on their knees should dream more than their capacity.
You should take risks within your means. You should make only those mistakes in life which you can repeat a second time. Do n't make a mistake so big that you wo n't be alive to make another mistake. So if you keep making mistakes, you will keep learning. So this is his story. After that, everything became fine as I told you.
So now my final message for those who have startups is in this paragraph, which I had also written in my song for the public market, that too for the public, ultimately the matter is the same, the picture of rapidly developing India is changing, change the destiny of the country by making startups your own, this is the opportunity to do something big, do not lose it without doing it, oh there is something new or something to be created in my startup, do it big.
So this song is not on YouTube. No no, I have sung this for you for the first time. Wow wow, what a thing. So IV Bhai should actually take its copyright. I have got that done. So Vijay Bhai, you told a lot about investing in startups, how are you doing it , what are you looking at? May be if you can share one or two experiences which you had after investing in startups, like I know that when you invest in listed companies, you told me that you don't meet management, you have something in mind that you don't meet management, so after investing in startups, if you have ever met any founders, some of you marked a good experience, some of you had a bad one, may be if you can share that can be a good message to the startup founder, sing over here.
So, in the public market, there is no need to meet the management much because what I told you is because all their policies or their track record are in the public domain. So, like they keep on calling whoever is new these days, whatever is going on, AGM, AGM is fine but quarterly all the reviews come, quarterly calls come and their interviews etc.
keep coming on TV, through that you get to know everything about them, so if you go to meet them again, then they are going to ultimately tell you the same thing which they have told you somewhere or the other in the public domain, so I do not meet them much for this in a public market company, what do I need?
Whatever he says to me, all the speeches and interviews etc., phone calls, I have all of them on record. I listen to them completely. I have appointed a man just because I know his summary just by listening to him. I don't read much. I have to understand the basic things in my mind after putting them in the notes.
I have to catch Samari. So she stays in my mind. And those good management also shares all the things with their shareholders. What is their vision, what is it, there is no point in wasting time by meeting too much and secondly, the management also knows that what I have come to listen to, so he will only say positive things, he will not say negative things, otherwise whatever negative thing will be there about that company, you have to listen to other companies in that sector, suppose I have invested in a tiles company, then whatever three-four listed tiles companies are there, I have to listen to everyone's interviews, I have to listen to everyone's words, what is anyone saying, if this one person is blabbering too much, the management is blabbering too much.
But the other one is saying that this problem may arise in future. So it should come to your mind. Yes brother, understand that such problems can arise from China. You should understand this yourself. So, I don't believe much in meeting them and I don't try from my side. So this became public market.
But in the private market, if you do n't get management then work will not be done. This is like the wedding of the bride and groom. So if you don't see, that era is gone. When I used to get married in the movement, I did n't know what the right name was, that time is over, so now management is the most important, so meeting them, not once, not twice, not four times, understanding them, studying them is the most important part, and what you mentioned about experience, I have double experience with many types, like there is a startup, I gave it money a few days ago, three days, three months, two months ago, you know, I did something above the valuation of 200-250 crores, and two-three other people, big names, also invested in it, so they gave him money, I had met him before that, I have been meeting him for a year, so you said, meet the management, I have been meeting him for a year, I met him three-four times, a year ago, he took the money, then after that he came to Mumbai for some work, he came to Mumbai and met me again, there is a five star hotel next to the airport, so when he met me there, he brought his bag, his backpack.
So the conversation happened. Then I said are you staying here, so why don't you stay here, whatever he said, no no sir I can't stay here, he said ₹100, then where are you staying, he said I am going to Kolalba, I am staying in Y MCA, he will charge me ₹450, so I thought that the person who has raised 2025 crores even now and he is saying that I will go and keep it in Y MCA, I will do it for ₹450, so what I am talking about, it was a good experience for me that it is okay.
So these are all the things to look at and one of the good experiences if you want to share after investing. No, I will say it in a little roundabout way, I will not say it clearly and like there was a startup, it earned some money, after coming here, he started talking that he wants to buy India's top car, let's say Rolls, he wants to buy an RSCE worth ₹1 crore, so I saw such intention of his, I thought this is a red flag, this company is not going to run for long, this company is going to close, so it depends on the mentality of this person that what is your vision?
If your vision is long term then you will have to sacrifice all these things. Meaning, as they say, either you can have a lavish young age or you can have a lavish old age. So it depends on how long you want to go. What is the mind set? We can have the mic for the audience. So please limit your question to one simple you can tell your name but keep it very shy please absolutely sir my name is Kapil I manage family offices and what we do is we make portfolios for clients for wealthy investors to invest I have a question for you sir and this is my personal problem at the time of making portfolio which I want to know from you sir what happens in our portfolio we have one fund manager, two fund managers, three fund managers each fund manager takes at least 20 to 22 stocks in his portfolio.
So there will not be 80 stocks in three or four portfolios because there is some duplication also. So there are approximately 55-60 stocks in the portfolio. And and we don't get alpha again. We do n't get a good return. You know, we expect at least 20 to 22%. So Sir, to create a good portfolio, according to you, how many stocks should be there in the portfolio as per the listed companies.
So the answer to this, Hinorani Sahib, is that every person, every investor has a different mindset. Please sit down, everyone has a different mindset and they are going to answer this question according to their own understanding. So I am answering it as per my understanding. But it is not necessary that the same formula is the same for all of you.
There may be different formulas for you. And my code for this quote is that KYC is more important than KYC. Know Yourself is more KYC than your clients. So this is most important. First thing. Second, you invest in what it means ah public market. Is equal? And its second meaning is ah one more thing that it means you invest in small and mid caps.
Is equal. So, if you had done it in large cap, then your quantity which would have been 60 shares, would have reduced to 10, 15, 20. Because you are doing small and mid cap and three fund managers as you mentioned something like that. So understand there are three fund managers. 20 20 30 you people have given it.
I think again I say I may be wrong. But in your situation that thing is true because every investor, every fund manager of yours has a script for you. If you have invested money in that script, then you have given resiliency to every fund manager. Now he has to prove his point. But whatever your scope may be, I have to invest in small and mid caps.
What's inside small and mid caps? There is no liquidity. There is limited liquidity in it. What happens to my shares, sir? If I want to buy any shares, then at the time of buying my shares, there is neither any HII nor any fund under it, neither any FII nor any DII, there is no one, so I cannot get the block, so I have to buy from the market only, the problem is such that if I buy half a percent in a day, then my name will appear on the BSE exchange or NSC exchange that I have bought half a percent, if any person has bought 1/2% then the share will increase by 10%, it increases by anyone buying.
Increased by 101%. I have to take 5% and if I take half% then I will be cheated in the remaining shares. So I don't take more than half a %.48. I take full 8 the next day. I will try like this. But people are very smart. The broker who is doing my work. He also has a dealer here. There is also a back office.
He has a connection somewhere. People come to know about it. Let me give you a very concrete example. One day I shared something, I am not talking about myself. I am talking about a general thing that if any person does something big in mid cap or small cap then how the news comes. I once accumulated shares between 2:00 pm and 2:30 pm.
You believe me, at 2:45 I got a call from one of my friends inside the open market. Ok. Vijay Bhai, can I ask you something? I mean, are you taking this right now? For me it was like what happened? Where have we reached while walking together like this? He asked what happened, all this has become a problem, then I said this happens to me a lot.
So the same will happen to you. So in your situation, I think if you generate a return of Rs 202, then no one on earth can give you a better return than this. Ok? If you generate even 15% return in your funds, there cannot be a better return than this on earth. You should understand this. Everything else is nonsense.
Those who say that they got 30% or 40%, it comes for a short time or for a year. If it becomes zero in the second year, then it will become 40% or 20% and your adjusted average will be off, so it is nonsense. Or anyone can have such dominance in their hands. Someone may have such skills. You do n't need to compete with him.
I think that as your fund grows, you will automatically start moving away from small and mid caps and into large caps or large mid caps, whatever, because there is this rule about mid caps, I heard that even those with a market cap of Rs 40-5000 crores come under mid caps. Is there some such system of SEBI or whatever it is, I don't know, this is a strange situation, these are individual share holders, I tell them to keep around 20 shares, do not keep more than 20, not for fund holders, they should not keep more than 20 shares because in 20 the money is going to be made only in one or two shares.
The big money that we talk about, the multiplication that is going to happen, the multiplier, is going to happen in just one or two shares out of 20, but if you take 20 shares, then you will study about 20 companies, your mind will be busy studying those shares, and until you do not invest in 20 shares, that ace will not come out, out of your 21 cards, only one ace will come in your hand, it may come in that, it may also happen that it may not come out, but if 21 cards come, then one ace will come out of it, understand, or a king will come out, whichever will not happen, this trump card will come out, here the game of 25 cards, similarity is like this here, but if I mean the game is of three cards, then the chances of it coming out or not coming out are less than 1 * 1000, so this is the thing about investing, so I tell new investors that invest in 1520 shares, under this pretext you will study, learn, fail, fall and improve yourself, from that you will get an ace If only one of them comes out, then this should not work for individual investors even in three-four or five shares because they have less knowledge.
The biggest money in the stock market is not money. If Money Is the Only Skill You Have in the Stock Market You Will Soon Go Broke. This is my coat, sir. If you want to win the stock market for money then I will talk to an individual smart small new commerce person for ₹1 lakh. I brought 5 lakhs, I brought 10 lakhs, I brought ₹10 crores.
That is my skill. That money is going to become zero soon. So the stock market should never be measured with money. The mantra here is that of empty experience. How many days have you spent in the stock market? How many times have you fallen in the stock market? How many times did it come to your mind that brother, this work is not for me.
I cannot do this work. How many times have such thoughts come to your mind? I am giving you a generic concept. Not exactly the same. But how many times did it come to your mind that brother, this work is not suitable for me. You learned from him. If you leave, your meditation is over. Ok? If you stick around what did I learn from this mistake ?
This is what a batsman does, he comes to a ball, plays a ball and misses a catch, then he learns what mistake he has made. So he will not repeat that mistake the second time. Sometimes imagine that it also happens that he plays the ball and gets caught out and goes away. That inning was over for him.
That's why I said earlier, don't make such a mistake that you cannot repeat it again. The most important thing here is intelligence, more than money in the stock market, experience is more valuable here than intelligence because whether your intelligence is telling you right or wrong, you will come to know about it when you play.
So this is also one of my poems which I recited in front of the Chief Minister that remain steadfast in every situation. This is the law of time. Auto driver became CM. The tea seller is the PM. This game is still going on. You have to prepare. Tighten your waist and take up the challenge. Now it's your turn.
Now it's your turn. So this is the summary of the stock market. Seven stocks may be okay for you because you operate in mid-caps. For individuals, you should work in 15-20 shares. But keep learning here, don't let the bull market play into your mind that I have become a great saint. So here it does not take much time for pride to become a moth.
There is darkness all night long. Its crying has stopped the morning. So, definitely keep that in mind here that what am I learning from what is happening here, both from my mistakes and from my goodness. We can have one or two more questions. Sir myself mind single. Sir, my question to you was that whenever I invest in the public market, some major economic event happens soon after.
The war broke out late or Trump sir of the US took some such decision due to which the stocks in our Indian market fell by 30 or 40 taka. So sir what is an ideal stop loss or should I wait for revival of his stocks. So what is that where do I stop? So the answer to this is brother, we cannot run the entire world.
Ok? What is going to happen tomorrow? As I told earlier, internal factors and external factors. Even Trump doesn't know what he will do now. Right? Someone will take a decision tonight. Something will change that in the morning. Will dump his decision. Then on the third day he will pump the shares there in New York.
So that's why I do n't know. So what the Gita also teaches us is that there is no point in worrying about something that we do not know, we do not know what is going to happen. Ok? Leave that to God. First of all, we do n't know whether it will fall by 30% or 40%. So I have said this at many places that whenever you buy shares in the public market, you should understand that whatever shares you have bought at any time, they can fall by 25-30% from here.
That is not in your hands. Okay, right ? Whatever happens, getting married is in your hands. But having a child is not in God's hands, brother. No, it is in your hands too but still it is in God's hands. So we don't have answers to all the things in life, so leave it to God brother, so what should you do, it means that you should do it after thinking that yes brother I bought shares, these will fall 25-30% from here, I personally do not put any stop loss in investment, this theory does not fit me, why did I buy these shares, if I bought a share for ₹200 and 200 loses 30%, then I will give 10 for ₹140, secondly, the person sitting ahead of me was standing there to buy, so first of all why did I buy it for 200, you must have done it after thinking carefully, so stop loss has no connection with fundamentals, you try to understand this thing, again I tell you, for me I do this, for me it suits me in a broad sense, still you think for yourself and I ask you a question, what is the meaning of putting stop loss within fundamentals.
This means that you have bought the shares by guessing or your vision is very limited or you have bought the shares without doing any study, without thinking, without understanding the future of the company, just like you do trading, like you do future options. This means that you have bought shares according to the market fluctuations.
Shares were not taken due to the company's irregularities. Shares have not been purchased keeping in mind the ups and downs of the company. By understanding the market movement and investing in that company, you are calling yourself an investor. What I understand about this is that you should try to understand it logically that if I am trading when the stock which is at 30% may fall by another 30%.
But that doesn't happen all the time. A stock with 30% returns falls by another 30%. This does not happen all the time when a big cycle is completed, which after Covid, after 2021-20, understand that the cycle which was completed in 204, it happens like this in that, so before that the shares have become three times, four times, 10 times, 40 times, they will definitely fall sometime or the other, those lions have to die sometime or the other, or if they do not want to die then at least they should fall because just like ups and downs are the law of nature here, similarly it is the law of the stock market, so you should first understand behind it, do more homework before buying, instead of doing homework after buying, so I agree with your point that I feel that the fundamental shares have been bought keeping the company in mind, so the 20-30% fall that happens is due to the demand and supply of the market and not due to the demand and supply of the company's product.
That is fundamental. So my base is fundamentals. Because if I am an investor then my base should be fundamental. And my visa should not last less than three, four or five years. Those whose VIS lasts less than three to four years generally cannot be successful in investment. If he has a lot of experience then in my opinion he should not look at stop loss in investment.
Before buying, think at what level you are buying, are you buying at valuation and do not think of investment within trading. If you are doing future options by the way. Be sure to keep a stop loss in it. Otherwise you will not be alive to make a new mistake. So do we have time for one question last, hi sir, I have a fundamental question for business which Peter GL had said in one of his books that as an investor and founder look for a monopoly business where you can create a monopoly, so as an investor, how do you see how important monopoly business is for your investment and if a business or industry is a business only, if it becomes a commoditized business, then you invest in it and how is the way that brother, you can make commoditized also a monopoly business.
So whatever I do personally, I tell you this again and again, you should try it on yourself and then work on it. I do not invest in commodity business because they do not have pricing power in commodity because when can we investors earn money when it is not on the company's product, wait brother, an international call has come, this is a call from Trump, sorry, so I do not invest in commodities because there is a lot of competition in commodities, there are many players in it, there is no pricing power in it and the growth rate is low.
Those companies generally commodity companies generally do not grow from 1520 taka. They do not grow sales wise and remain capital intensive. They require a lot of capital, so I generally do not invest in such companies. Now coming to your point, if you look at the monopoly business, all the good businesses in the world, all the big businesses that have been successful, there is definitely a kind of monopoly in them.
For example, think about toothpaste in India, the name of Colgate comes up. He has a kind of monopoly within him. Correct? When it comes to chocolate, Cadbury comes to mind. People call Cadbury chocolate. That name has become so synonymous that Cadbury means chocolate. Let me talk about shavings, so this is a monopoly business of course and if you look at their PE, the monopoly has a PE of 60, 70, 80, 100.
You will find commodity stocks at a PE of 5, 7, 8, 9, so this tells its own story that this is a monopoly business. Now what I think is that if we change the monopoly a little bit and add what Warren Buffett says, which is called MOT, then leave aside any business monopoly, but consider one, there is MOT in it.
In India also, everything is monopoly, like if you take the name of telecom, there are only two companies, Jio and Bhartiya, this is also a kind of double, which is called government flying. If you look at Indigo Airlines, it is 65%, the remaining 25% is Air India, in the remaining 5% there are four companies, but there is a kind of monopoly, but in this sense, there is a pricing advantage in a monopoly company and they have an advantage in Asian fields.
You can see Asian Paints, Berger Paints and Naroc and these were three-four companies, they did their ROC, ROE for 50 years, if you see that, that will be delisted and that of Hindustan University which will not remain, such was the financial matrix of these companies and such was the reward they gave to them, now two big joints entered and the entire sector got disrupted, on top of that Asian Paints also went down by 40-45 taka, so of course monopoly or moat, in whichever company or sector, the possibility of more people entering is less.
Those sectors get higher valuations. Even in Depends, we can see that whatever Hindustan Aeronautics makes, no other company can make it. That Maga Duck which is being made by only one or two other companies, it is just a matter of time. So there are psychological companies. But their valuations are so high today that how will a new investor invest in them?
So those shares should be invested in when there is a crisis in the market. When there is a bear market or a bull market in the market and later when the market crashes, one should invest in those shares. Hello sir. Sir, you sing very beautifully and write even more beautifully. So if you could sing or say one line for 21/72, what would it be ?
21/72 I love you I love you. So Vijay Bhai has like everyone has, sister you have put me to the test of fire. So every investor guru and every fund manager has a way to convey the message. Like Warren Buffett, I remember the courts very well. Wealth Creation Courts and All. Vijay Bhai gives the message through his song.
So these two-three questions, I think, can probably be summed up in a song. Creation is history if he plays and then we will have a quick rapid fire round Vijay with you and then we will wind up. Can we have the song please? Scared and threatened the whole world By imposing tariffs on everyone as per his wish Made the world sad, even destroyed his own market By lifting the bonnet of a moving vehicle and threatening the market Never demanded a trillion dollars It is good that you raised me, I too awakened the power Now we will find a new way to develop India Now the time has come We will take a breath only after reaching 47 and making India the number one country.
Creation is then history. Creation is then history. Thank you. So these are my partners from IVY. So I had my partners at IVY host this so I saved them some money on the music evening and the DJ. Everyone became happy after playing your song. So Vijay Bhai we will have a quick fire side chat quick rapid fire questions.
But before that tell me one thing that these many songs that you have played have created a stir on YouTube. 20 songs have been released in your markets so far. So sometimes there are Arijit Singh's concerts , Pritam's concerts, have you ever received an invitation for Vijay Kiria's concert till now?
A will come soon. something going on. The first one will do the first face. So we will have a quick one line answer for you Vijay. If you were stood on the island with Mukesh Aman, what would be the first thing you would ask him, how did you do it brother, one thing about your morning routine that would surprise us, one thing about your morning routine that would surprise us, morning routine or morning routine which surprises you that surprises that can surprise everyone, no, it is not like that, nothing fun, absolutely yes, you have to wake up comfortably.
Get up peacefully, you have invested money, everyone is working for themselves. This is the biggest secret of the stock market, brother. What happens now is that we invest money in the stock market. Someone invested Rs 5000, someone invested Rs 50,000 and will talk after waking up in the morning. When you wake up in the morning, you will see what NSD was?
What was Duzzon? What opened Hong Kong? What did Trump say? What did Modi ji open? Hey brother and then we will talk, if you do this then so many dollars, so many trillion dollars will be lost, India's GDP is 6.3%, the World Bank has said that 250 billion will be lost, friend, you are making India fail by investing ₹5000, so you bought 150 shares of the company or 500 shares of the company and are worrying about the entire economy, exactly let the management do that brother, startup you wish you had found it, startup you wish you had founded, it seems to me that whatever you are doing is also not a donation, right..com yes in that, I could have done it, well those are startups and startups, right, that or waiting startup, one financial habit you are proud of and one you are still working on, so one financial habit proud of, means I said that I am not so spend thrift, so in spend thrift, I spend money after thinking.
Well, if I spend money on anything, I will do it after thinking whether it is worth it or not, whether I should do it or not. I like that is it that yes I value money. So pick your investment style: Dhoni's complacency, Kohli's aggression and Rahul Dravid's patience. Bhaiya case patients, I have shares of such a company, I have been holding it for 2020 years, brother, theirs are very big people here but their career ends even after 20 years, my party has started, the party has started, so it is Vijay's special things about you that even Google does not know I am a very romantic person if your investments if your investment journey were made in a Bollywood movie and a dialogue whatever you feel so what would be that title if your investment movie would be a Bollywood whatever the title is you should say the dialogue Tiger is still alive Tiger is alive Vijay Dinana Chauhan so who is the all- rounder of your life someone you trust for your advice on money, career and life nobody even my wife does not trust me she only says chal chal ja ja ok ghar ki murgi dal I say ghar ka murgi bhaat chawal barabar last two questions coffee with Gautam Adani and wine with Madhuri Dixit what are You are choosing of course Gautam Adani, what a thing.
If the last question is about Gautam Adani then everything else will come. You said it right. Last question, so when I said it in a romantic style, they thought that maybe I would take another name. If you are on a private jet Virat Kohli and Katrina Kaif? Who are you having a deeper conversation with and about what?
Of course not at all with that note friends thank you so much for your active participation. Thank you Vijay Bhai for making this evening wonderful and passing a good message to all the start up founders and investors here and thank you IV for hosting this program. Thank you so much Pranal. Thank you so much Kedia ji.
What a lovely conversation, so relatable, you explain everything with so much love. A massive round of applause for Dr Vijay Kedia. Sir, I am a very lay person. I am not related to the industry but I am a massive fan of your singing and of you as a person also today. So thank you so much for being here.
Thank you. Sir, how can I let you go without respecting you? You have given us so much time. You have given me so much laughter, so much fun, so much entertainment, how can I let you go like this? Can I please request Mr. Pramod Podar, Mr. Rachit Podar, Mr. Sharad Todi and Mr. Mehul Shah to kindly come up on stage and felicitate Dr.
Vijay Keria for doing this so amazingly well. Let us fulfill our dreams. On the map of the world we'll go to 21 Stage please Philippetia For the dreams that are unfulfilled we are love For those who have made promises
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