The economy is strong, labor market is back to normal, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

Yardeni는 미국 경제가 강하고 노동시장은 정상화(팬데믹 전 수준)됐다고 주장하며 경기침체·신용경색은 없다고 본다. 연준의 금리인하 예고에 대해 금리가 여전히 제약적이라는 주장에는 동의하지 않으며, 금리 0% 시기가 비정상이었다고 본다. 자신은 2022년부터 경기침체 없음을 예측해 왔다고 강조한다. 'why should we have a credit crunch'라는 질문과 과거 신용경색 사이클 이론을 근거로 든다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. why should we have a credit crunch before they they're forced to do more we we already know that the economy is weakening we can quibble about the degree to which it is and the labor market is obviously weakening too Scott Scott let's quibble because I disagree I think the economy is strong I think the labor market is back to normal it's it's not that it's pulled off as Paul said I think it's back to normal and what's back to normal is as as evidence by initial unemployment claims have come down a bit year after they looked like they were going to go up but again a lot of that was weather related uh the payroll numbers that we had at the beginning of August that was weather related and I think we're going to see stronger numbers there but if things are back to normal the FED funds rate is not that that's the whole point if if things are normalizing but the FED funds rate is still too restrictive why shouldn't we move it that's your interpretation that's your interpret well Scott that's your interpretation my inter how my interpretation Ed they they hiked for for 18 straight months where where's where's it written well they hiked from zero that's the point that's why you know I've been predicting no recession since the beginning of 2022 and everybody else has been predicting recession and one of the things I got right was saying look the FED has tightened from zero to five and a quarter per.

02. so the abnormality was Zero not getting to 5 and a quar perc by five and a quar perc the economy is dealt with extremely well it's been that these levels in the past and the economy has grown so I I disagree with the view that the economy is weakening that the labor Market's weakening that the uh fed funds rate is is too restrictive but uh I'll go along here I mean look it's what I say is irrelevant the FED is saying they're going to cut by 25 basis points and that's what it's going to be what I mean job growth is slowing and the unemployment rate is going up it's not slowing it's normalizing we're back to7 ,000 but now we're having a semantics debate Ed I mean okay it may be normalizing sure it's normalizing but it's to to normalize it's it's it's slowing and the FED doesn't want to lose control of it now after they've come this far bad it's bad it's slowing relative to a boom that we had in the labor market that has certainly simmered down we're back to where we were before the pandemic in terms of the monthly increase in payrolls and that was perfectly good time for the economy the unemployment rate got down to three and a half% uh right before the pandemic so interest R toward zero what's that interest rates toward zero and they were absolutely abnormal absolutely and here we are back at 170,000 per month as we were before the pandemic and interest rates are 55 and a quarter perc and the abnormality was Zero interest rates not 55 and a quarter per.

03. but you know I'm not saying we're we're not going to see the FED lowering interest rates I'm just think saying it's uh I I think they got to got too doish and they're forecasting too much I mean the abnormality was maybe getting to 5 and a quarter as fast as they had to I mean they were forced to do that that that wasn't normal either because of the level of inflation we had the highest in 40 years yeah but Scott you agree with me that starting in 2022 as the FED raised interest rates everybody was talking about that's got to cause a recession and we're still don't have a recession people talking about yeah you you are correct of course most people thought that it was going to cause a much faster deterioration in in in the economy but the the long and variable lags have proven to be much longer than people ever expected they would be but that doesn't mean you just declare Victory and assume that all of this is going to work out well and that you don't need to do anything with interest rates at this point I'm not declaring Victory I'm just saying that what Economist missed is what I call the the credit cycle the credit crisis cycle the history shows that what happens is when the FED tightens you get a credit crisis which turns into a credit crunch which then becomes a recession which is when the FED lowers interest rates and rates decline sharply and that's when you get your inverted yield curve that when it starts to dis invert that's when the recession actually hits what's different this time is yes monetary policy tighten yes we got a credit crisis last year but the FED came in and stabilized the situation and guess what we haven't had a credit crunch we haven't had a recession and I'm sticking with that story