저자: Wolf of Dubai Day Trading & Investing · 외국인
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Tom Lee's coming on CNBC and saying two more things need to happen that the market even further explodes, okay? He perfectly timed not only the bottom, but he also said where we will go in the S&P 500 at 7,500, which we are, right? But he says there's much more room to grow. We're all about that here in this video.
If you have no idea who I am, my name is Danny and I'm the Wolf of Dubai and I'm on YouTube since 2018 roughly, okay? And I was one of the handful of YouTubers that said, "Hey guys, I believe that Tesla will be a home run." And not only I made a lot of money because I put my life savings into when the stock was at 23, it went to 11, I put even more.
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Now, make sure to follow all of my channels because every now and then I mentioned a new ticker like for example Wolf that I mentioned, "Hey, buy Wolf at nine, now it's 25." Or like my colleague Michele Exton stock that joined our Exton family that we said that Hims is such an amazing play at $15, now it's already double as well, so 100% we made there as well.
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So, uh if this is interesting, before we're raising our joining fee, make sure to go on extenddaytrading.com. Check out the calendar. Schedule a call with me. And now, let's dive into the clip. Before we're diving into the clip, we know that Tom Lee is on CNBC every second or third day. As more as he is right, as more they want to have him on the show, because he brings clips.
Just shows you how important this figure is, not only for CNBC, for the finance world, but also for BMNR as the executive chairman, but also, I believe, as you might remember from my other videos, I believe that he's building the next 2.0 Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett style company, right? We have now $10 billion in assets.
This will grow over time because Ethereum will go higher. And with that said, let's dive in into the clip and let's see which two things are actually needed to go much higher. Let's ask Tom Lee. He's Fundstrat head of research, a CNBC contributor. He's been all over this move, on the right side of it.
Welcome back. It's good to have you. You know, what's what's interesting to me is you say that the risk reward in the market is still positive. I'm wondering though whether that spread is starting to narrow. Um hi, good afternoon, Scott. Uh to us, stocks are rising uh for the right reasons. I know I've said that before cuz we've had good earnings, but also just evidence of really the scarcity of compute and the supply chain, whether it's semis and energy and you know, AMD's the latest example.
Um but the market hasn't made these stocks expensive yet. The forward P/E of the semi index is still only 22 times, and while that might sound high because they were expensive uh more expensive than a month ago, you know, they they they'd gotten as high as 35 times over the last 20 years. So, to me, there's still pretty good risk reward even in the stocks that are leading this rally.
So, the risk reward is still fairly balanced, I I hear you suggesting. Is that right? Yes, and I think that they're still um there was cuz so much skepticism as the war started and reached its crescendo that we do believe there's still a lot of money on the sidelines. And you know, in this case, I think it's actually more retail investors that are chasing this move, and that may explain why we're seeing such big moves in in things like memory and semis.
You don't think that, you know, sentiment and and it's or what's being reflected in the market by virtue of some of these moves has gotten a little bit a little bit too much? I I bring up this note today from Ed Yard Denning, uh you know, obviously friend of the show, he's on frequently, is talking about to infinity and beyond.
What he's calling now the Buzz Lightyear theory, BLT of AI. The data revolution is going to infinity and beyond, he says. He's even more bullish than his original roaring 20s 2020s scenario. Is that is that well-founded? Is it a point of concern? If you start getting some of the folks who are generally speaking pretty bullish to sound almost euphoric, is that something to worry about?
Uh I mean, I think it's something we have to calibrate uh cuz I'm I'm actually here at the Milken conference and I think one of the recurring themes is that AI for the US is probably adding two percentage points to GDP each year the next 5 years. You know, that's like 6% S&P earnings growth coming from AI productivity.
And balancing that is I I know a lot of rational investors that continue to point to this coming shortage of petroleum products. So, I think there's enough logical reasons for people to stay cautious, but I think there's now a fundamental argument for why AI is is causing earnings growth without inflation.
And so, that that is a good combination for stocks. But see, I I look at what you still suggest is a three-phase market. That's how you characterize it. A rise of the S&P to 7,300, check, right? We're there, beyond it. But then you talk about headwinds emerging. See, as as we started this year, to refresh everybody's memory, you thought we were going to have a really good start to the year.
We would drift into a bear market before another upswing would take us even higher into the end of the year. Now, when the war broke out and we had about 10% or so pullback in the S&P, I thought, well, maybe that's Tom's moment. He couldn't get the timing right cuz who can, but that was the pullback and now we're so bulled up on AI that maybe we're we're going to do just fine for the rest of the year, but you're still looking you're still looking for a drawdown of 15 to 20%.
Is that right? Um, I am, Scott. I I think the 7,300 originally was like an aspirational level and now that we're here, I I I think that there still is fuel for a move higher from here. But we do have to confront later this year uh two things and maybe it won't affect the markets, but I think it it's the trigger for a drawdown.
One is, of course, the market will test a new Fed and this incoming Fed chair has some different theories on the sources of inflation and how to read inflation and so the market, I believe, will put those views to the test. And of course, the second is that uh every day that the street is closed, we know that there's an acute shortage developing of petroleum products.
So, if price reacts later this year, that's going to test the market. So, I do think there's the ingredients for turbulence later, but AI and the scarcity and and the US is the provider of that scarcity is why I think we can exit 77 or higher and maybe 2027 is one of the biggest rallies we see in our lifetime.
So, I think it's still a bullish I will look, but turbulence in the middle. So, first of all, I believe that he is spot on. There's two more roadblocks, okay? These two roadblocks are the Fed. The next Fed meeting is in June, so like round about like 1 month away, middle of June. So, we will know if the new Fed chair can bring all other Fed guys on board to lower the rates for the very first time, which would be absolutely insane for crypto.
Second, you see also the oil is still elevated, like almost double where we were like before this war started, right? So, obviously this hits a little bit the economy, that makes a little bit discomfort for the consumer. It is a little bit not so great for the Fed because they are a little bit scared of the inflation, so so many things, right?
But as you can see, all of this can change within like 30 days. And we are at Bitcoin and Ethereum at the very important level, still very, very low from the all-time highs, but once we break through with the Clarity Act, imagine how great of a rally we could have over the summer. Let me know if you have enough BMNR for this rally, if your average is low enough for this rally, and what you think about this next couple of months.
Check out xandate.com before we're raising our joining fee, and I'll see you obviously on the other side because the grass is greener always on the other side.
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