저자: Strike · 외국인
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what I'd like to talk about is what I call the 10 most dangerous things uh people say about stocks uh here's a good one if it's gone down this much already it can't go any lower uh everyone Polaroid went from 140 to about 107 people said if you ever get Polaroid under 100. got to buy it you just back up the truck buy the stock tonight all right broke a hundred people start buying it and within nine months the stock was 18.
so just saying it's gone down this far you know how much lower I mean it's crazy but you know it can keep going in fact I tried this out Kaiser industries that was a new Analyst at fidelity and we're about to buy the biggest block ever at Kaiser Industries the stock had gone from 29 to 17. we're about to buy the largest block ever in the history of the American Stock Exchange we bought 10 or 15 million shares at 15 and three quarters they said my God the Stock's gone from 29 to 17 how much longer can it go so we buy this enormous block at 15 and three quarters so I called my mother and I said Mom I guess it's 10.
so about three months later said you gotta buy this it's gone from 29 to 10 how much lower can it go well went to nine it went to eight it went to seven it went to six it went to five it went to four unfortunately this happened very rapidly or I'd be working at the Stop and Shop bag and behind the line so Fidelity so fortunately this was compressed in only about six months so I had to go to the fun man to say I was a little bit early on this at 15 and three quarters it uh but it uh we call this premature in the business the uh uh had a correction which you know is a euphemism losing a lot of money rapidly at the uh so I said let's check this again the stocks for they own 45 percent of Kaiser Aluminum you know 59 of Kaiser steel they own 38 percent of guys cement I think all of Kaiser Electronics all the Kaiser broadcasting which had seven TV sets on Jeep the Kaiser fiberville I said about Kaiser Santa gravel they bunch of other Kaisers and they had no debt now in this room because I know premium buildings is very interested in financial stocks no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt now that would take a real I think you have to give some kind of distinguished service award if somebody did it yeah but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was wrong when I said it can't go below 15.
so we hung on and within three years they gave out the shares and kind of Steel gave out the shares because it's been gave out the shares and Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got 55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 15-11 and you're just saying how much longer can it go when it went to 918 dude you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell go from 14 to 1 in 1974 and they had no debt and making 60 cents a share there's a cool area to that that's even more dangerous if it's gone this high already how can it possibly go higher Philip Morris adjusted for splits uh sold for 12 cents in 1951.
when it goes to 60 cents in 1961. there goes up five-fold you say yourself how much is never sold up just for squids to say how much higher can this go it's got a five-fold they missed the power of Marlboro they missed the this 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was a hundred bagger after going up five-fold but people sold it just saying how much higher gonna go can't go any higher they did the same at Home Depot they did the same with Toys R Us I did the same thing Toys R Us just think it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one and uh it's a very bad thing to do eventually they always come back here's another one that sucks uh that's a technical stock market term we just use only in the stock market the RCA just about got back to its 1929 price was backed out by GE Manville never came back in the National Harvester even with its name Chase and adjusted for splits hasn't got all the way back yet Western Union double knits remember those wonderful things floppy disks they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back not true here's a great one it's three dollars how much can I lose this is a great one you know this is I don't have a computer and I can't do high-level math but uh just do this one so let's say you buy your neighbor buys ten thousand dollars of a stock at 50.
the Stock's now three and you put twenty five thousand dollars in at three and it goes to zero who loses the most a lot of people cannot answer this question you know I mean if you put a billion in a three you can lose a billion if you know I mean they'd blow Taps and lots of companies every year you know you just have they can go to zero here's a good one they helped me a lot It's always darkest before the dawn uh the uh this business is terrible it's awful you ought to buy the group this is not a good way of making money here's one you're probably talking about before lunch here freight car deliveries uh 1979 there was 96 000 Freight cars to live in the United States two years later it fell to forty five thousand the lowest in 23 years it goes from 96 000 to 45 000.
people say business is awful it's horrible pathetic then it falls to twenty five thousand they say just load up there's about 15 opportunities to lose money it's about 15 supplies of freight cars 15 manufacturers business was awful well last year we shipped seven thousand credit cards in essence the business just continue to be miserable and uh there's even greater opportunity to lose money on Energy Services industry this we all had a great opportunity to get our heads hand to us in 1982 there was 11 000 of those oil rigs drilling left drilling those holes all over Oklahoma and Texas and Colorado we used to have the recount every week and the recount fell from 11 000 in 82 into 6083.
then fell a little bit lower 84 there's hundreds and hundreds of companies companies have made the muds and did the downhole stuff the fracturing companies the well companies the Schlumberger the bit companies lots of opportunities to lose money here there's equal opportunity opportunity here for serious losses and people said listen this is terrible let's buy these groups well the recount was only a thousand three years ago so it went from eleven thousand to six thousand to five thousand then eight years later it's under a thousand University really started to turn about two years ago so just saying the business can't get worse I was lucky enough Foundation of medals industry in Star Fidelity I had the textual industry it was a great group to follow because you follow companies like JP Stevens who's founded in the 18th century and West Point Pepperell was found in the 18th century Berlin Industries is one of the new companies was founded in 1904.
these people have been through recessions depressions were Wars they've seen it all there's a great expression text industry It's always darkest before Pitch Black yeah yeah now that's a good one to remember because business is terrible it can get considerably terrible you're terrible to the power is six and uh on a rebound to 10 I'll sell uh here's a great rule somebody buys a stock at 10.
and it falls to six I see if it gets back 10 I'll sell now I think the math four and six I can handle this level math I think that's about a 66 return you want to buy if you think it's going back to 10 yard buy the hell out of the damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number because I think for the next 26 years this started between five and nine and a quarter it'll never get to ten so maybe put nine a through eight three quarters but just saying the stock and it gets back what I paid for it this is a very important rule this is a very it's one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it remember that you could be a miserable person you could have uh you know never helped anybody never done anything right had 67 spouses never done anything right if you own Coca-Cola the last 50 years it's gone up 300 fold you'd be the greatest human in the world help Special Olympics help the mentally challenged to help poor people help AIDS people if you're on Bethlehem Steel it's lower than it was 30 years ago it's not your fault don't take this personal you know but people treat stocks sometimes like a grandchildren or a puppy they think they think the stock knows who you are you know it's you know it doesn't work that way it uh I don't have to worry I don't get service dogs Carmen Con Ed fell uh 80 then tripled uh Public Service Indiana went down 90 Gulf States utilities long on lighting this may be oxymoron with quality Texas banks that went to zero we had uh quality New England banks that went to zero uh these were companies have been around for 150 years 120 years saying I own good service stocks I don't have to worry I've seen a lot of people to inherit a stock from somebody they'll say you know my mother said on her deathbed don't sell the Long Island lighting you know you always wondered you know is it she's going to heaven or hopefully where she's going to heaven no they talk about a little game or a vacation or game of Hearts they had or imagine talking on your deathbed about Long Island lighting he said but you get these stories all the time and I think your mother would have noticed she wouldn't have sold at 29 but she wouldn't she would have noticed they had this little plant that was about 6 billion over budget no one wanted it and wasn't working and uh Long Island stopped growing so maybe she would have turf to the 22 or get up at 18 she wouldn't let it go to four no so just be sure inherit some stock in a so-called conservative like Eastman Kodak fell 75 IBM pill 75 percent don't tell anybody you want a good service stock companies are very Dynamic I don't buy that argument these are very dangerous one look at all the money I've lost I didn't buy it it uh people do this all the time they say I didn't own Blockbuster I didn't own Home Depot I know Toys R Us I uh Eric it was very nice to say some nice things about when I came up here and Manny has been nice to meet I live in one of my books listed on two pages in a 13 years of ram Magellan I listed I think about 200 stocks a through L on New York style exchange they went up tenfold or more that I didn't own well I ran a job I had on lots of stocks I listed 200 stocks eighth oil I stopped the letter L and I didn't know any of these shares they went up tenfold or more and I was able to do okay with Magellan and people worry all the time about missing Microsoft missing Western Digital missing United Airlines they spent all their time worrying about stocks they miss you cannot lose money in a stock You Don't Own the variant what you have the only way to lose money is buy stock have it go down and sell it that's the only way and I swear the people that their spouse has to cut out the newspaper in the morning cut out the Seas and personal look at the Amazon oh my God Microsoft's up three you know I had I was gonna buy a thousand shares at Microsoft I lost 3 000 Microsoft last night while I was sleeping you know the uh you know I was gonna buy seven thousand shares the national semiconductor at 10.
it's now 17. I just lost 49 000 on National 75. they do this all the time I mean they have to cut holes the block thank God Blockbuster Finance the early alphabet people would always be looking how much they lost in Blockbuster I missed that one I'll catch the next one that usually does not work Toys R Us there's a lot of copycats at toys wrestlers trial world it was Lionel there's probably some Home Depot buying the next of something usually doesn't work it's uh it's very bad it's like buying on dips I think it's always been a buy from dip so I was a better rules you may have to explain this to some other people uh this is another technical term they have to explain after hours with a dip I usually referred to as plurals the episode I never heard dip you know he's a dip she's a dip usually only the plural tense for it so and it's a gender non-specific it's usually plural dip is never used um stock has gone up I must be right stock has gone down it must be wrong I'm convinced that people do this all the time they buy stock at 10 they buy a little bit of it goes to 13 that they now say they don't know anything more about it than they know when they bought a 10.
they have no idea what this company does it's gone 13 now they take a second mortgage in the house and buy the 13. the best thing could happen for us to stuck up directly from ten to four it's going to go to four eventually but it goes to 30 in the middle they're convinced now they bought 100 shares of 10 not only by twenty thousand thirteen and uh all the fact this is talking about 10 to 13 is it went up the average movement of a stock on your stock exchange this century between high and slow has been 50 percent the average stock news section that means the stock start of the Year 20 sometime during the US sold 16 sometimes 30 years sold to 24 might have finished year 21 might finish year 19.
the average range of a stock and your size change is 50 percent in 12 months between times so stocks go up and down a lot within a year and say this stock is going up means you're right doesn't mean a damn thing so don't buy off an outlet that is not a good one avoid long shots these are the companies that we have this very technical term for this uh called whisper stocks and these are always these long shots you know these are stocks that are going to uh grow hair and make your kid have better spelling and your breasts can improve and you won't have to iron your pants and it's one of those stocks they always do everything for you but they're missing they don't have any sales yet you know that's the missing elements of the story the story is sensation there's no poverty no sales yet but my God if this works if this works it's going to be the next Xerox you know and it's going to help Birds space it's a very very good deal now this is not a long shot this is a no shot you have to separate these out I've tried 30 of these I have never broken even on a launcher never I've made 25 30 times my money on some stocks I never thought about Sallie Mae or mbia or Fannie Mae or some of the banks or Stop and Shop I make 20 kinds of money 30 times money I had no idea I thought the stocks are going north I had no idea you look back 10 years later you say my God I made a lot of money in this thing but once I went into thinking I could make four times my money I've never broken even so don't do the long shot guts they don't work they simply don't work uh and again if a Stock's three and it has huge potential write down the story take the stock symbol if it's going to 300 it's okay to buy it at 15.
check in later check a year later see if it's still listed so you can still get a quote on it see if they study right yet but if it's going write the story down some of these work I haven't heard yet but maybe they will work but it's worth tuning in six months later
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