저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 비트코인을 효과적인 화폐나 가치저장 수단으로 보지 않으며, 인플레이션 연동형 디지털 코인 등 새로운 대안이 나올 것이라고 봄. 2020년에는 비트코인을 디지털 금과 유사한 대안 화폐로 긍정적으로 평가했으나, 이번 인터뷰에서는 입장을 크게 낮춤. 비트코인은 전체 가치가 마이크로소프트 주식 시가총액의 3분의 1 수준으로 작고 과도한 관심을 받는 자산이라고 설명함. 바이오테크 등 다른 산업이 비트코인보다 더 흥미롭다고 언급. 비트코인은 효과적인 화폐, 가치저장 수단, 교환 매체 어느 것도 아니라고 평가. 달러 등 기축통화 전반의 과도한 화폐 발행으로 화폐 체계에 대한 신뢰가 흔들리는 상황이라고 진단. 중국 위안화(디지털 위안 포함)의 국제결제 확대가 장기적으로 화폐 개념의 변화를 낳을 것이라고 전망. 스테이블코인은 결국 법정화폐에 의존하므로 좋지 않다고 봄. 대안으로 인플레이션 연동 디지털 코인이 바람직하다고 제시하며, 인플레이션 연동 국채와 유사한 개념을 언급. 영상 진행자 및 크립토 커뮤니티 측은 비트코인은 공급이 고정된 화폐라 구매력 보존에 적합하다고 반박하며, 달리오의 회의론 자체는 건전하다고 평가. 주의: 이 영상은 2023년 2월 자막 기준 과거 발언 분석이며, 앞으로 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음. 미국채금리·환율 등 다른 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측도 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
because every individual wants what do they want they want to secure their buying power if you want to save now if you put it in Bitcoin it goes like this okay American billionaire Ray dalio just went on CNBC for an interview and said some pretty outrageous he gave an updated take on his view on bitcoin let me share with you this clip but first I do just have to say that I have huge respect for Ray dalio in general he is an incredibly successful businessman with a proven track record and he was a hedge fund manager who served as the co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates since 1985 till last year with over 19.1 billion dollars in personal net worth so when Ray dalio talks smart investors usually listen which is why I found this Calypso interesting Andrew Ross Sorkin simply asks for his updated thoughts on crypto uh Curious crypto curious okay where where has anything changed for you in um yeah just everybody let me say what what I believe about the crew time went Bitcoin and I hate to stop but this will be the last stop but just for some context it was back in late 2020 that Ray dalio came out in support of Bitcoin specifically and this was huge news he had changed his mind in the reasons that he gave that Bitcoin has clearly proven itself it undeniably has value and while it's by no means a sure thing it has many of the same properties as a digital gold influence changes in my view um it has proven itself and has been used and and is now um has obtained you know the status of having imputed value at the same time it is one of those assets that is an alternative money I think we're entering an era where um there's going to be a competition of Monies um because of the printing of Fiat money um and the depreciated value there will be a competition of monies um and Bitcoin is part of that competition but the money has two purposes a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth and we are looking for uh um and it's portable and you can and it's best if it's recognized in other countries um so gold is one of those so I look at it as an alternative gold so back in 2020 you could clearly articulate it's a like a digital gold let's cut to today Ray dalio giving his updated take on cryptocurrency and please just understand that he does in his answer reference cbdc's specifically China's or renmin B A yuan is a unit of arenmin B see those two words you want Yuan or renmin B can be used interchangeably crypto curious okay where where has anything changed for you in um yeah just everybody let me State what I believe uh time went um Bitcoin and what I've you know pretty much uh always pay I think it's been you know quite amazing that for 12 years it's accomplished since but I think it has no relation to anything okay in other words it moves it has no relation it's a tiny thing that gets disproportionate attention you know the value of crypto uh Bitcoin is less than a third of the value of Microsoft stock you could go into Industries spot right biotech and many other Industries are more interesting than Bitcoin it's not going to be an effective money it's not an effective storeholder wealth it's not an effective medium of exchange but we are in a world in which money as we know it is in Jeopardy right we are printing too much and it's not just the United States all the reserve currencies the year what's going on in euroland what's going on in Yen and so in that world the question is what is money and how's that going to operate so when we look at something like China's remnb and then you take the digital remnb um I think you're going to see that become more and more a thing so when when things start to open up in an evolutionary way people are going to start to say where is my safe uh storehold of wealth and as you have China denominate more of its trade in remmb then naturally those who are going to hold remedy if Saudi Arabia sells oil in remmb and then buys things from China in remnb when they get it they're going to hold more remedy it's going to be a higher percentage of there and so um I think the question over the next number of years is really what is money not just as a medium of exchange but a storehold of wealth that sounds like a argument for Bitcoin it's a Bitcoin or for something okay so thus far not that outrageous it's what comes next and you'll notice Andrew Ross Sorkin the other hosts say sounds like you're describing Bitcoin to prevent inflation to prevent monetary debasement from governments yet Ray dalio said about 30 seconds before that biotech and many other Industries are more interesting than Bitcoin it's not going to be an effective money it's not an effective storeholder wealth it's not an effective medium of exchange Here's the final part of this interview what is Ray dalio's solution if not Bitcoin for average people to preserve their purchasing power that sounds like a argument for if you want a digital currency you have to deal something different I don't think that the stable coins are good uh uh because then you're getting a fiat currency again I think that what you really would what would be best is an inflation linked um coin right in other words something where basically you would say okay this is going to give me buying power because every individual wants what do they want they want to secure their buying power if you want to save now if you put it in Bitcoin it goes like this who knows what happens if you put it into something the closest thing to that is an inflation index Bond and so on but if you put uh if you created a coin that says okay this is buying power that I know I could save in and put my money and um over a period of time and then I can transact in anywhere I think that that would be a good coin but you so I think you're going to see probably the development of coins that you haven't seen that probably will be end up being attractive viable coins I don't think Bitcoin is it wow let's break down exactly what he just said and he did reference inflation index Bond he thinks something like this is a better inflation hedge versus a Bitcoin so what is this well daily inflation indexed bonds also known as inflation-linked bonds or colloquially as linkers or bonds are the principle is indexed to inflation or to deflation on a daily basis they are thus designed to hedge the inflation risk of a bond okay so are inflation linked bonds worth it well inflation-linked bonds do a great job at protecting against short-term inflation they'll only outperform nominal bonds if the short-term inflation is unexpected so it seems to me the ray dalio is asking for some digital version of this maybe like a rebase token but linked to inflation he's saying that he wants a new crop of digital coins that solve this problem crypto Twitter was a little taken back they were a little embarrassed by these claims ROM Robert Breedlove friend of the channel we've interviewed him said lesson for Ray dalio's money's buying power is preserved through the Integrity of its Supply Bitcoin has a perfectly integral money supply of 21 million in the long run Bitcoin is the perfect money for preserving buying power over time and inflation linked currency is nonsense and nobody's saying that Bitcoin is a sure thing I do think his skepticism in general very healthy I mean that's why he's a billionaire he thinks of all possible outcomes but when your goal is protecting purchasing power he has stated in other interviews that you want to find something with a fixed or finite Supply ideally not controlled by anyone entity that you have to trust I don't know am I being too sensitive let me know down below do you think Ray dalio has a point do I have a point comment Who's a little too sensitive comment down below
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