저자: BrianFeroldi계열진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
가치투자 원칙을 소개하며 개별 종목 투자 체크리스트를 설명한다. 결론: 장기 보유 기반의 가치투자가 주식시장에서 부를 쌓는 가장 신뢰할 만한 방법이라는 주장. 투자 철학: 워런 버핏의 방식을 따르며 단기 매매·모멘텀·기술적 분석보다 장기 보유를 선호한다고 밝힌다. 체크리스트 1~3: 단순하고 이해 가능한 사업, 꾸준한 매출·이익 성장(연 10% 이상, 과도한 고성장은 경쟁 유입 위험), 강력한 해자(경쟁우위)를 가진 기업을 고른다. 체크리스트 4~6: 주주가치를 우선하는 정직하고 유능한 경영진(주식 수 증가·희석 주의, 자사주 매입 긍정), ROIC 10~15% 이상 등 높은 자본수익률, 매력적인 가격에 매수해 안전마진 확보. 철학 요약: 주식은 실제 사업의 지분이며, 가격은 지불하는 것이고 가치는 얻는 것이다. 미스터 마켓의 기분에 휘둘리지 말고 그를 하인으로 부릴 것. 원금 손실을 피하는 것이 가장 중요하다(50% 손실 회복에는 100% 상승 필요). 출연자 전망: 특정 종목의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없다. 개인 포트폴리오에는 VOO 같은 지수 펀드와 일부 개별주를 함께 보유한다고 언급한다. 리스크/조건: 높은 레버리지나 부채로 ROE 등 지표가 왜곡될 수 있음에 유의할 것.
다듬은 글
I wanted to start posting a little bit more on YouTube, and during this video I wanted to talk a little bit about how I invest in individual stocks myself for my own portfolio, as well as give an intro into value investing in general, which I believe is really the most reliable way to build wealth in the stock market.
If you're not yet subscribed to the We Study Billionaires YouTube channel, please hit the bell icon below to get yourself subscribed so you can see future episodes I'll be releasing. Plus, if you hit the like button, that will really help us continue to grow the channel and continue to provide great content for you guys.
With that, let's get right to it. All right, so my investment process was largely influenced by Warren Buffett, who really is known as the G.O.A.T when it comes to investing. He's the greatest to ever live. He's worth over 100 billion. And he's applied a value investing strategy his entire life. You know, he's what, 92 years old now and he bought his first stock at 11 and really just has that value investing framework that he learned from Benjamin Graham early on, and that's really evolved over.
And I've adopted many of those strategies myself. You know, I want to take a long term buy and hold approach and something that's a bit more conservative than a lot of other approaches, whether that be trading or technical analysis or a momentum strategy. I'm not trying to get rich quick overnight, like I'm sure many of our audience is in the same camp.
You know, we're trying to build long-term sustainable wealth. I think too many people nowadays are trying to find the next hot stock or next hot commodity. Commodities that were so hot in 2022 and it was all the tech stocks in 2021. You know, looking for something that's just gonna go to the moon, which really isn't a sustainable way to build wealth.
You might get lucky from time to time, but it's practically impossible to do it consistently year in and year out. And that's where Buffett comes in, where he's buying a business that is really good and is producing cash flows for him year after year. There might be those temporary downturns in the short term, but over the long term, he's investing for that long term approach.
So you might as well adopt a strategy that's much more proven and much more time tested. If you're trying to build long term wealth in this way. I'll also mention that I hold some of my overall portfolio in index funds such as the S&P 500 ticker VOO is one that Vanguard has, but I also like to hold some individual stocks as well.
You know, I'm studying all these great investors like Buffett, Munger, Guy Spier, Mohnish Pabrai, all these greats, and I feel like I can pick up some of the things they use in their approach and try to apply it to my own portfolio with individual stocks. And in this investment checklist, a lot of these are cloned or pulled from all these great investors.
So the first one here is that the business is simple and understandable. Using this simple and understandable approach helps keep me from making a mistake of not understanding what I'm investing in and helps me avoid companies that are too complex. Some industries and technology in particular are just so complex.
I feel like I could read about some of these companies for hours and I'll never truly understand either the company or the industry they're in. And just remember that some of Buffett's most successful investments are in simple businesses. These are businesses like Coca-Cola and Apple. You know, those are two of his most successful investments.
And you know, apple in 2015, 2016, around that time frame, everybody knew what Apple was and everyone knew what Apple. But a lot of people weren't buying Apple because you know, they're saying there's a slowdown in the iPhone sales, and a lot of people just didn't like the stock. And when it was trading down, that's when Buffett stepped in.
He understood the business, he believed it was gonna be around for a really long time so he took his own position. Some people might even call these simple businesses, boring investments, but these types of investments are much more likely to make you money over time. So it's a much more reliable approach to investing.
All right. The second one is that I want to invest in companies with consistent revenue and earnings growth. I'm not trying to hit a home run with the next hot stock. Like I mentioned, I wanna buy a company that's going to continue compounding its capital and compounding the earnings it produces and reinvest those earnings back into the company for many years to come.
Most stocks that produce earnings nowadays are priced off of those earnings. So, for example, say Apple is trading at a 20 times PE, well, Buffett believes that those earnings are gonna be much higher years down the road and they're gonna be able to do things to reinvest back in the business and just continue to grow over time.
So, in order to see a growth in my own capital, I wanna see consistent revenue and earnings growth for the company. I want companies that have a really strong history of that reliable and proven growth. And I also wanna see it to be steady growth. I wanna see, you know, 10, 20, 30% growth year over year in both the earnings and the revenue.
So, if you're looking at a company like Peloton, where it was just growing like crazy, over a hundred percent per year. When a company is growing that fast, it's gonna attract a ton of competition and you never know when that growth is gonna slow. Most companies that grow that fast usually, have their growth slow within five years or so, and that's exactly what happened to Peloton.
Once that growth slowed the stock just completely cratered. Fast growth attracts a ton of competition, but I want steady, reliable growth saying that at least 10% per year, for the earnings and maybe in around that 10% range for revenue. It really just depends on the company in the industry. So the third thing I want in the companies I invest in is a strong moat and competitive advantage.
A strong moat is really one of the most important things that Buffett looks for in a business. One of my favorite interviews I've ever done was with a money manager named Adam Seessel, and I asked him what's the number one thing he looks for in a company? And it's the moat, it's the competitive advantage.
If you're gonna be a long-term investor, you need to own companies that are gonna be around for a really long time. Buffett first bought Coca-Cola in 1988 and today, it's a much stronger and it's a much bigger business than it was back then, and he recognized the potential and the likelihood that that was gonna end up playing out.
Buffett says that a great company is one that will be great for 25 to 30 years, and it's really gonna need a moat and a strong competitive advantage to achieve that success. There are a lot of ways that a company can have a moat or competitive advantage. There are a number of sources that that can come from.
That can come from a network effect, it can be the low cost advantage, it can be, the amount of capital it takes to enter an industry. For example, Amazon has all these warehouses built out across the country and that gives them, you know, a low cost advantage. And the advantage of having all these facilities built out that other companies don't.
All right, so the fourth thing is honest and competent management. I want managers of the companies I own to be acting in a way that aims to maximize shareholder value, whether that be reinvesting back into the business, they're issuing dividends, performing share purchases, You know, I want managers that act in shareholders' best interest rather than a way that just tries to enrich themselves.
I like to see the CEO speak in public and try to get a sense of what they're like. I'll read their annual reports and their quarterly reports and it'll tell you what sort of things the company's focused on. And then I like to look at just the share count over time. I think I've found that oftentimes when a company is consistently issuing new shares and that share crown is growing and shareholders are getting diluted, I oftentimes see poor stock performance in those companies or subpar performance, at least not outperforming the market.
There are some exceptions, of course, when I see companies that continually repurchase shares over time. A company like Apple, they've been repurchasing a ton of their shares. Those are the companies I see that tend to outperform the market and do really well. Some other things I like to see in terms of the management aspect is just looking at the numbers.
If I see that strong, steady growth over time in the revenues, the earnings, the dividends they issue, and then share repurchases, and then if I see return on invested capital or the return that the business earns. If that is at least 10 or 15% per year, then that's a pretty good sign to me that I'm looking at a pretty good business.
Like I just mentioned, return on invested capital. I wanna see that high because that means the business is able to reinvest at high rates of return. So, if one company can only reinvest at a rate of 5%, whereas another one can reinvest at say 20%, then the 20% business is gonna be much more preferable from an investor's standpoint.
There's this Munger quote I like where he says, over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold the stock for 40 years, you're not going to make much difference than a 6% return, even if you originally buy it at a huge discount.
Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result. So what Munger's getting at here is that the return on capital for long-term investors is a much more important aspect of the business rather than the price paid.
I think there are a lot of investors who just look for a really cheap company, and if that company doesn't earn good returns on capital then it might not be that good of investment over the long run. Whereas if you look at a company like Costco, it's had consistently high return on invested capital, and even if.
20 years ago, you paid what looked to be an expensive looking price. The returns of the stock have been really close to the returns of the business. Now the stock is trading at a much higher multiple. So there is some multiple expansion in the business for Costco, but, Really the driver of the stock's return is that return on invested capital over time.
And I also look at the return on equity too. It's just another measure that's pretty similar and. I'd also be mindful that you don't want the company to take on too much leverage or too much debt because you can distort these figures, higher if you're using leverage or debt. So that's something to be mindful of is ensuring that the company isn't continually issuing debt to fund its operations.
Now the sixth and final point of my investment checklist here is to buy at attractive prices. Warren Buffett says that the value of a business is determined by the cash that the company produces over its lifetime discounted at the appropriate interest rate. Now, when you buy a company at attractive prices, you're ensuring a margin of safety, meaning that you give yourself some room for error if you buy a stock for $50 that you believe is worth something like a hundred dollars, you'll still make money if you're a little bit wrong, and it actually ends up being worth $75.
You know, if you're right in your assessment, buying with a margin of safety actually enhances your returns as well because you're getting the returns of the business itself, and then you're getting the return from the stock reaching its fair value. Now if you'd like a masterclass on how to value a company, I really encourage you to check out the podcast I just released covering Aswath Damodaran’s book.
It's called The Little Book of Valuation. It's episode 515 on the We Study Billionaires podcast that will be linked in the description below if you're interested in learning how to value a company properly and thenI did another episode, it was episode 487. I dug deeper into Warren Buffett's 12 investment principles.
If you'd like to learn more about what he looks for in a company, I list six points here, but I did a more comprehensive analysis from a book I read by Robert Hagstrom, where I look at Warren Buffett's 12 investment principles. So highly recommend checking out those episodes if you wanna learn how to value a company.
That is Episode 515. All right, so transitioning to discuss this value investing philosophy. The first philosophy I wanted to discuss with this value investing approach is that buying stocks is buying ownership in a real business. A lot of times Buffett talks about the idea of buying just a regular business or buying a farm and thinking about, okay, if I were to buy this farm or I was to go out and buy this coffee shop, how would I go about valuing this business?
And how would I think about, you know, the overall valuation process and whether I would wanna buy it or sell it, or what price I would be willing to pay for it. And when you think of stocks as real businesses, it really shifts your framework because a lot of people think about stocks as just this ticker on a screen that changes in price every single day.
They're on their Robinhood app and their Tesla stock is up by 20% in a day, and they don't really know why, but they're making a bunch of money off it, so they want to go and buy the Tickers that are just going up rather than just thinking about it as if they're buying a real business. Preston Pysh, one of the other hosts on our show here.
He uses the metaphor a lot of times of buying a money machine. You know, if you were to buy a money machine that was making a hundred dollars per year, how much would you be willing to pay for that money machine? Will you think about things like, well, how much is it gonna produce next year? How much is it gonna produce in five years?
How likely is it that that's gonna happen? And that's the sort of questions you need to ask when you're buying a real business, and that's how you should think about stocks as well. So it's really just this shift in your mindset around how to invest, how to think about buying businesses, and this is really how Buffett thinks about investing.
When Buffett invests, he's either buying a wholly owned private business or he is buying a stock or a business that's trading on the public market as a publicly traded security. And he's really agnostic. Whether he is buying something that's publicly traded or something that's private in his mind, they're both the same in a lot of ways because they're both just businesses.
So, Maybe you can think about it like a tech stock, say a tech stock out there, you know, just IPOed and it's worth 50 billion dollars; and you might be excited because there's a ton of buzz created around this stock and people are saying it's gonna be the future. Well, if you look at the financials and the stocks losing say 1 billion per year.
Would you purchase a money machine that produces negative 1 billion per year? You have to pay money to essentially have that money machine or have that business lose money every single year. And then you can think about, okay, how much is that business gonna make or lose in five years, 10 years? And then you can start to price in.
Okay, How much is a conservative price to pay for this business, essentially? The second piece of this philosophy of value investing I wanted to talk about is you wanna buy an asset for less than it's worth and ensure that you have a margin of safety when you're buying such an asset. And this is really fundamental to value investing because.
When you buy a business or you buy a stock, you wanna make sure you're getting more value than what you're paying for it. Buffett says that price is what you pay and value is what you get. Next, I wanted to talk about Mr. Market being you wanna make Mr. Market your servant and not your master. So Benjamin Graham uses this idea of Mr.
Market, and Buffett discusses it a lot. He really pulled this from Graham. It's this idea that Mr. Market, everyday he comes to your door and he knocks on your door, and he has this list of all these different businesses and he has a different prize for all these businesses every day. And he shows up to your door every single day.
And Buffett often says that the stock market is a place where you're offered these prices by Mr. Market every single day, but you don't have to swing. It's not like baseball where you get three called strikes and you're out. For the stock market, you don't ever have to swing and there's no called strikes.
You can just wait pitch after pitch after pitch after pitch and wait for that one. You know that one pitch that is just in the perfect spot, it's at the perfect speed and you can just knock it out of the ballpark you can think about Buffett's trade in Apple. He's stacking up all this cash while the market's somewhat expensive, and then he realizes, Hey, Apple is trading at a really good price right now, and he really likes where the business is heading, so he really just bets big when he sees that opportunity.
And Mr. Market, he can be pretty moody sometimes. He gets really excited and he offers you a high price when he knocks out your door. And then other times he might be really depressed and he offers a low price. So, you know, this is the euphoria where the stock market is just very expensive and everyone's super excited.
And then the recessions or depressions where sometimes the market offers extremely low prices and the outlook is just completely bleak. So Buffett has adopted this mindset where he is really agnostic. He has these businesses that he knows he would like to own, but he'll only buy it at a price that makes sense to him.
There's a right price for every single business in his mind. You can't just find a great business and then just go out and buy it. You might be paying too much for that business, and you wanna make sure you're ensuring that you're getting more value than what you're paying for. Like I mentioned here at point number two.
Now the fourth piece of value investing philosophy I wanted to mention here is don't lose money. You wanna be really disciplined with your approach in investing and you don't want to take unnecessary risks and you really want to keep all of these principles and these items I mentioned in my checklist earlier.
Buffett and Graham both believe that the number one rule to investing is to not lose money. And their rule number two is not to forget rule number one. So they really put so much emphasis on not losing money. And one reason for this is because it can be really difficult to make up for your losses. Say if you have a 50% loss, it's not a 50% gain to get back to even.
It actually takes a hundred percent. And if you have a 75% loss, it actually takes a 300% gain just to get back to even. So if you lose money, that really hurts your compounding and your long-term returns. Because what's really made Buffett successful is not only that he's invested for such a long period of time, but he's really disciplined about ensuring that he's not gonna lose money when he chooses a great investment.
So if you guys have any questions on value investing or you'd like to let me know what sort of items you'd like me to cover in the future, please comment below and I'll definitely be sure to get back to you. Or if there's something that really resonated with you in this video, be sure to let me know in the comments.
I'd love to hear from you. And here if you've been enjoying the podcast as well. Also be sure to check out my recent podcast episode covering Aswath Damodaran’s book, The Little Book of Valuation that is episode 515. If you haven't checked it out yet, it was definitely one of my very favorite episodes I've put together thus far with the We Study Billionaires show.
So thank you so much. I'll see you again next week here on the We Study Billionaires YouTube channel. Take care!
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