저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라 2022년 전망 영상, 결론: 판매 확대와 마진 개선으로 테슬라 강세 지속 전망. [판매 및 수요] - 12월 인도량 약 20만 대 언급, 2022년 연간 150~160만 대 가능성 제시 - 중국 런레이트 기준 200만 대도 현실적 목표로 언급, 일부 증권사는 200만 대 주장 - 칩 부족으로 4분기 약 2.5~3만 대 손실 추정, 상반기 완화 전망 [목표치 및 수익성] - 기본 시나리오(base case) 1400달러, 강세 시나리오(bull case) 1800달러 제시 - 마진과 수익성 개선이 핵심 성장 동력 [성장 동력] - 오스틴·베를린 공장 가동이 생산능력을 약 2배로 늘릴 수 있음 - 배터리 기술 개선으로 원가 절감, 2022년 배터리데이 개최 기대 - 슈퍼차저 네트워크와 배터리 기술, 규모가 경쟁 우위 - 중국 사업가치는 주당 약 500달러로 평가 [경쟁 구도] - EV 시장 기회는 약 5조 달러 규모(10년), 제로섬 게임이 아니라고 봄 - 포드·GM 등 기존 완성차도 유통망과 수직계열화로 재평가 가능성 - 루시드·리비안은 규모 확보가 관건 [리스크 및 조건] - 칩 부족 지속 시 판매 차질 - 신규 경쟁 확대 시 마케팅 비용 증가 여부 질문에는 정식 마케팅 없이 고객 인도 중심 전략 유지 전망 - 2025년 주당 이익(EPS) 약 30달러 가능성 언급 [출연자 전망] - 테슬라 중심 강세 관점 유지, 판매·마진·규모 확대를 근거로 낙관적 입장
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it we think it was 200 000 alone that they delivered in the month of december you look at the trajectory now between china as well globally going forward i mean we could be looking now 1.5 1.6 million units for 2022 and that's why it just continues to be that scale and scope what we're seeing in tesla beyond you know what even the bold case the haters will continue to hate but you look at these numbers i think gives a lot of momentum in 2022.
yeah some of your peers on the street are arguing maybe 2 million damn is possible for the year um maybe a stretch target but one that looks a lot more realistic given this print yeah i mean if you look specifically the run rate in china you know two million it's not out of the zone in terms of what they could ultimately hit and then you do have the chip shortage that took out in our opinion probably about 25 to 30 000 units in the quarter so you start to add that with the chip short easing into first half of the 2022 and i think this is really just the start of what i've used almost the next leg of the tesla store and just importantly that gross margin story and the profitability that's what i believe is going to be a big part of we have a base case 1400 bullet case 1800 speaking of the next leg of the tesla story dan what do you think could be a surprise for investors this year does it happen around fsd full self driving risk perhaps as well opportunity yeah it's a great question i think two things first austin and berlin getting on board's key because that that ultimately could double capacity over the next year i think it's going to be about battery technology i mean i think you start to really significantly lower the cost that's going to be just more and more of a margin benefit for tesla so expect another battery day for tesla and you look at that competitive move we don't view this as a zero-sum game and there's a green title eight five trillion of opportunity over the next decade but tesla you get the supercharger network battery technology and that scale that continues to differentiate them from other competitors so dan broughton this out to the broader ev space and who else are the winners this year is that the newer players like lucid and rivian can they ramp up get their production right or do you think it's the legacy automakers like ford and gm they're gonna be providing competition for tesla yeah i think it's a three one three area code i think you look at ford in gm specifically i think those are ones that could really see a re-reading in the stock they have the distribution you got the vertical integration everything farley's done at four and i think what mary will start to do you know over a gm you look at ribbian it's been one of her favorite pure plays but it all comes down to scale and that's why when we look at this core the reason i call it trophy case given the chip shortage what tesla's able to do despite some of the shortages and battery component charges it it's really off the charts i think it just shows you'll have competition across the board comes down to scale and that's why pesa i think continues to be a stock that could re-read further potentially 30 dollars earnings power by 2025.
hey finally dan um even if they are in a pole position uh going through the year as new competition comes online do you think they have to ramp up marketing expense i mean would that be material to the model right now yeah and that's what we've been saying that they're never going to do formal marketing i think for them it's really going to be about getting cards in the customer's hand i know over the weekend a few eevs send emails potentially not till 2023 in terms of you know those that made reservations that's going to be the key never formal marketing but it's about ultimately that scalability and that's why austin and berlin are key and we think china's worth 500 per share of the story fascinating certainly the way that musk would want to start the year dan and a great note appreciate it as always dan ice
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