저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
경기선행지수(LEI) 차트가 0 아래로 내려가 있어 경기침체 신호로 보이지만, 과거 침체 종료 시점에 지수가 반전하는 패턴이 많다. 2022년 1~2분기 기술적 침체가 이미 지나갔고 현재 선행지수 변곡점일 수 있다. 소비자기대지수가 핵심 선행지표이며 아직 100 이하로 부정적이다. 블랙스완(시스템 리스크)이 없다면 최악은 지나갔을 수 있다. 다만 장기 호황 주장 외에 개별 자산 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
every time this chart goes under zero Kevin's saying we're never session it essentially says we're screwed is is not good we need to call a spade a spade there's a chart the current economic indicator chart that averages together 12 economic indicators and it essentially says we're screwed we have a recession that we're dealing with let's call a spade a spade let's address this head-on so first of all the chart that we're going to address I'd like to mention that it was brought to me by a course member so shout out to them they brought it to me this morning in our course member live stream private course member live stream for over an hour and one of the reasons they brought it is because I've been asking everybody to find me the most bearish information that they can so that we can analyze it and understand okay or is it better to wait because more pain is still ahead of us and so I'm going to bring up this chart and explain it but let's just start again calling a spade a spade it starts off bad and bearish let's analyze it together do keep in mind that on the 18th which is Friday we have an expiration for the coupon code linked down below remember you can get the courses by going to meet kevin.com or you could get stacked with a stack hack by going to stackhack.com this is licensed Financial advice we'll have a price increase here we're almost booked out with how many uh portfolios we need to get through already so we're gonna have some really high quality work many hours of analysis going into everybody's personal financial situations for those who want licensed Financial advice and if you want the perspectives on building your wealth the self-study with the course member live streams that's right here and these are absolutely incredible so make sure to check these out there are let's be real incredible ways that you're going to be able to build your wealth in this next cycle and you want to know what those are so even if you learn one thing I expect you're going to pay for your course 10 times over with the value that we can providing these courses so let's get to this particular chart the chart that we're going to look at is the current economic indicators chart it's basically uh an average of about 12 indicators so we'll look at the weightings for these in a moment but as you can see this particular chart here goes from 2023 all the way back to 1962.
and the first thing that I did when I looked at this particular chart is I wanted to know where the zero number is so I went ahead and added the zero number as this red line going across and then I thought okay well it is decisively negative that doesn't look good that actually looks quite bearish now what we should do is we should Circle every single time we went into a recession and see if there's any correlation between this chart and recession so we'll go ahead and circle that in this blue marker here so first of all we know that we went into a recession right here because we had the coveted recession then we had the 2008 housing market crash then we had the.com crash then uh this was sort of like the 91 recession which kind of came after the Savings and Loan crisis some of the built up speculation from that and then you ended up having your 90 91 recession was deemed a relatively shallow recession followed actually by a soft Landing in about 94 but you notice that even in 94 which is about right here where you had this steepening you didn't actually cross that zero level for the soft Landing uh don't mind where we sit right now anyway then you had your uh two uh your basically your 79 and your 81 recession right here your mid 70s recession and then of course your 69 to 71-ish recession so if you look at the chart now it's kind of like go well every time this chart goes under zero Kevin's saying we're in a recession and where do we sit right now below zero and we're technically not in a recession great so what does this also tell us well what this chart also told us upon further analysis was that most of the time this chart inverted out of a recession was at a very particular point I'm going to draw those points to you to kind of bottom line it you could fact check it and kind of see it yourself but right here and watch what I'm doing this is when we were near we were within three months of the end of the recession where I'm drawing you kind of see the pattern already and if you don't see the pattern yet it should be pretty obvious here there we go now this one was a little rougher so we're actually going to do something more like that okay uh and then over here and then over here so what do you notice well the near end of a recession was typically where this line started going up again with the exception of 2001.
we hit the bottom in the uh fourth quarter of 2001. we sell at about 90 percent or nine months of paying ahead of us the NASDAQ fell 40 in those nine months now worth noting that in the early 2000s the NASDAQ behaved kind of like an index of spax because quite frankly these were newer not profitable companies but some people argue that the company is making up the NASDAQ today are newer and unprofitable and are going to have their earnings smash so anyway you have this precedent in 2001 that stocks could still fall 40 but that was the NASDAQ okay in all of the other cases the inflection of this indicator actually aligned with stocks having just recovered or being about to recover and then basically going straight up from there until the next recession you can see when you zoom out it's not actually very volatile now when we zoom into this chart back in 2001 this actually felt like it had bottom started recovering a little bit and dropped even more in 2002 and so there is a chance that could happen over here as well but what I got to thinking about was wait a minute if this indicator bottoms out when the recession is over and then starts trending up is it possible that we're actually in the recession or are coming out of the recession that everybody keeps talking about imagine that we know that we had a technical recession in q1 Q2 of 2022 that was a TR technical recession we know that because we had negative GDP we also know that we are generally not deemed to be in a recession until nine to up to 36 months after the recession occurs that's because the economists who decide whether or not we're in an actual recession yes maybe they're politically motivated who knows but they take a long time and use a lot of data analysis to say yeah that was actually uh consistent with a recession so is it possible then that economists could tell us that oh well the recession actually was q1 2022 to Q2 2023 and by Q2 2023 the recession was over yeah and that's it the recession that the inverted yield curve is talking about has already come and gone is that possible well should be seeing a lot more of a steepening of the of the yield curve then right we've had some steepening but not that much so is that possible that the recession is over before it's actually come well to help understand this we should look at what goes into this particular chart that we just talked about this by the way were some of these by the way were some of the notes that we talked about in the course member live this morning and if you zoom in right here this was something that I thought was very interesting look at this I wrote down how interesting that in Q3 2021 you got a sell signal a fall and then by q1 of 2022 you had this slope right here that portion right there since this is quarter over quarter data and it was your second warning to sell and then obviously stocks bottomed about three to nine months later well what we think is the bottom who knows maybe we'll get a new bottom anywho so this is what this economic indicator the Lei the leading economic index is made up of you can see there are two components there's a financial component and a non-financial component we are at negative 4.2 however over 70 percent of this indicator is being driven by this non-financial components so the biggest portion of the financial components has to do with credit so in other words tightening credit but credit will probably loosen when some of these other things turn positive you also have the S P 500 in here which is interesting so let's ignore the financial components for a moment and just focus over here on these non-financial components so what do we have huh interesting we actually have consumer expectations and then the institute for supply side management index of new orders as well as building permits although a very small portion being building permits most of the weight here the negative weight is coming from expectations and Manufacturing orders now I want you to think about this this is the breakdown of the leading economic indicators of these which do you think is the most leading of the leading 12.
while you think about that remember coupon code expires this Friday email us at staff meet kevin.com if you'd like bundles you can bundle up even if you want a special between the financial advice and the self-study course member live streams lifetime access q a with me whatever you need send us an email we'd love to bundle you up so what's the most leading out of all of these well in my opinion what would be most leading would be consumer expectations consumer expectations are important because when consumers and smaller businesses or otherwise think that we're not going into a recession what expands spending so new orders because people are like probably going to avoid a recession so we don't need to save as much no orders credit then starts expanding stocks start going up risk Premia start going down then you get all these other things ideally start trending in the right direction as well although these tend to be smaller weight over here at least they're presently smaller weight so the biggest leading indicator of the leading indicator is probably expectations which makes sense because expectations are frequently self-fulfilling so what do we have about the consumer confidence index well we have the following the consumer confidence index shows that consumer confidence actually bottomed here between July and October with Jackson Hole right about here where Jerome Powell really gave us a spanking well in that period of time a lot of stocks were darn near bottom so there was almost this alignment with consumer expectations and consumer confidence with the bottom of the stock market nearly some stocks didn't bottom until December but you notice that once we got into 2023 we actually had pretty bright expectations and even the AI push which we really got about here didn't really push expectations much more positive the trend was already substantially more positive now I find this very interesting because right now the consumer confidence level is sitting below 100.
100 is actually right here year so that means we have this deficit right here where consumer confidence is still negative that means it's weighing down that leading indicator right remember the weights right here see how consumer confidence is negative and then you're going to jump over here and then that negative number helps push us down but what happens when that negative number becomes less negative well then this becomes less negative so let's draw that out let's say that number Trends back to 100 which is the trend we are on right now expectations going up right what if that Trend Trends up like this and then all of a sudden the other indicators start trending up well that's probably why this chart moves in such violent lines like it feels like almost straight up or straight down because one of the leading indicators leads the other indicators to flip ah take a shot every time I say leading indicator anywho so what is this potentially mean well I don't know let's zoom out let's compare consumer confidence today to where it's been in the past well here's consumer confidence today this is the rebound charted out and if we draw this over we could see that we're actually sitting around similar levels of consumer confidence as where we sat in 1980 when we were getting Paul volckert and which is not great and we're sitting at similar levels as to where we were in 2010.
now I'm going to use the more recent example here even though this ended up being good right we had a strong recovery after our Pro volckering after we had our spanking we had a strong recovery we got our spanking so far today that's probably what led to this massive decline that we have here but what was interesting about 2010 I'm going to give you an anecdote about 2010 you ready for 2010 I got into the real estate industry towards the tail end of the crash so I still experienced enough of the crash to see how miserable it was and it was so odd because people would come up to me and go we're looking for a three and two I'm like I got a hundred you can look at there was so much inventory we had excess Supply everybody was afraid because everything was a short sale foreclosure if you had a standard listing back there they'd advertise that they'd be like Equity sale standard listing not a short sale that was like bragging rights back then today is the opposite no real short sales and foreclosures like half percent of the market so what's interesting about 2010 well in 2010 when I started getting ready to buy my real estate and then started buying my real estate everybody told me don't buy a house right now and they told me don't buy a house right now because there's about to be a double dip recession all of the banks are holding all their inventory back it's a shadow inventory of foreclosures and they're gonna dump them all onto the market as soon as prices start Rising because the banks are trying to rip us off and the suits are trying to rip us off and everything's rigged boy doesn't that sound familiar to the kind of stuff we hear today don't trust the data everything's rigged wait for the next crash The Big Black Swan is coming the great reset's coming and then it didn't and then we had a 10-year bull market where of course every single year the people who got the most views were the people talking about how every single year there's going to be a mega crash oopsies didn't end up happening so bottom line what is this data tell us right now well the data is actually telling us that we might be at a leading indicator inflection point not only may we be at a an inflection point but the recession may have already happened that may already be behind us which is really interesting now that does set us up for volatility during the steepening of the yield curve but the recession may have already occurred the inflection point is already occurring in leading indicators suggesting maybe we're already in the recession or we're just at the end of the recession and that would align with history except we won't know if we're in a recession now or we're just in a recession for maybe another two years whether it's politics or what that's just the way it works that we could argue about potentially being rigged but if that's the case then that potentially takes what looked like was a bear argument from the course member it actually makes it look like something we need to pay attention to because it could get worse or if those leading indicators keep pointing up will inflect up and continue to inflect up relatively quickly and signal that the worst is already behind us of course what can destroy all of this well obviously a big old Black Swan what was a Black Swan that actually delayed this indicator from recovering if you zoom into the charts by the way you'll see something like this in 2008 and then you see another crash and then sort of the recovery why did you have this pause in 2008 well you had this pause because you had a Black Swan called Lehman Brothers that's where you had the real Lehman Brothers collapse and then you had to flush out the true excesses of the system don't get me wrong I think at some point in the future where you're going to have to flush out all of the excesses the defaults that need to occur will happen but I don't necessarily think that we have enough systemic risk at this point that the entire system gets screwed we'll have bankruptcies we'll have foreclosures we'll have office defaults we'll have funds blow up and companies blow up and go under but most of the companies just like Property Owners today that are set up and prepared for this will survive like our Mega Caps or like our single-family homeowners who have 30-year fixed rate mortgages in which case the potential for a systemic Black Swan is actually minimized don't get me wrong those bankruptcies are going to come but if the recession is behind us I know that sounds weird to say and we're at an inflection point to the upside and this Black Swan isn't present yet and if it occurs it might not be that bad to some extent the banking crisis was kind of a Black Swan and we're like that wasn't that bad okay you took out four or five banks we got four thousand more kind of interesting so if you like my perspectives make sure you check out the links down below we got that expiring code on Friday and I'd love to learn with you join me so much goodbye so you're here tomorrow to ring the bell oh and to Governor that would exist and you'd have my commentary every single day prat
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