저자: Sundar · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치의 PEG 기반 적정가치 공식을 소개하고 실제 계산 예시를 보여준다. 비금융주는 PEG 비율 기준 공식을, 금융주는 PEG=1 가정 공식을 쓰며, 카르나타카뱅크는 매수 신호(적정가 649 vs 현재가 238), 인포시스는 매수 신호로 계산한다. 다만 계산 도구 활용과 사업 이해가 중요하며 다른 사람의 추천에 의존하지 말라고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
hey friends today we are diving into the world of investing with a focus on a legend in the field yes Peter Lynch this guy is not just any investor he's Rockstar in the world of Finance he's best known for his work as the manager of the megalan fund at Fidelity Investments where he achieved an incredible track record under his management the fund assets Grew From 20 million to 14 M billion between 1977 and 1990 that's a massive growth one of the coolest things about P Lynch is his approach to investing he believes in investing in what you know which means looking at companies that you are familiar with or products you use every day it's like if you love eating at a certain restaurant because their food is delicious Lynch might say hey maybe that compan is worth investing in now let's talk about his famous Fair valuation formula also known as PEG ratio it stands for price per earning to growth ratio it's a handy tool that helps you figure if a stock is price just right too expensive or maybe hidden bargain the PEG ratio looks at the stocks price Compares it with the company's earnings and then takes the company's growth into account in simple term it helps you to understand if you're paying a fair price for a company's growth Prospect imagine you are shopping for a new bike you want the best deal right so you look at the bike's price its quality and how much uh use you'll get out of it the peg res something similar but with stocks helping you to decide if a stock is a good buy so why do we care about what Peter Lynch has to say because he he has proven that the bit of research and a sensible approach anyone can pick a winning stocks his strategies and insights can be a big help for folks looking to grow their money in the stock market all right so let's get ready to explore more about Peter Lin's approach and how using his fair valuation model might just make you a smarter investor who knows you might find your own Gem of an investment just by following his advice let's dive in this is Sund and you are watching mindful fin okay uh let's get into that so Peter Lynch formula is very simple and I I try to make it very much simple and uh you can use it in Google Sheets I Tred to find out a easy method to auto automatically capture the data but I couldn't able to but I'm working on that soon I would be able to uh help you out in everything happens uh you just apply the stock name and everything it recommends what to do so that kind of excel I'm trying to work it out even though this is a version one so you can still use this skill sheet for your finding the valuation of the stock to get into that Peter Lynch formula Peter Lynch what he says is he's having a two formula which is two formula in s two way of approach one is non-banking SE and one is banking because the reason behind is bank will have more debt so bank is more of calculated based on Book value rather than just focusing on the P right uh that is a key point so let me show you the difference this is the formula you can see over here formula for calculating P Lynch fair value non-banking company is this and this is for the banking the difference is for the non-banking you will have a PG ratio certain value but here in the um scenario of banking we'll assume the peg Rao as one so what is PEG ratio PEG ratio as I mentioned the my uh the initial one PEG ratio is nothing but price to earning to the growth so that is the ratio you arrive for so using this details are using this values let's find out the valuation of stock for example let me check a banking stock for example let's say Karnataka bank so using a Google Finance formula we can get the ticker so Karnataka bank's current price is 238 now we need to find a peg banking sector default we are going to assume Peg is one EPS so let's go to screener so where you can search Karnataka so EPS is 43.3 go on 43.
now p ratio what is p ratio price to earning right so what is the price to earning is equal to current price divided by is 5.5 and check approximately uh the screen it is showing 6.49 or you can what you can do is we can pull from Google Finance okay ticker is ktk Bank comma what you want to have P get p ratio 5 point now annual earnings growth we have um if you remember the previous video last last week I posted post a video on calculating uh finding the intrinsic value so for that we have to go to yaho finance so Yahoo finance you search for Karnataka Bank you can find it nsec or BC so you have to check both so where where you will find you have to figure it out okay let's first try NSE whether it is there or not we go to nsse the Karnataka bank here in the analysis section if you go to analysis you'll find the data so here in the scroll down you'll find next 5e annual growth which is 22.8 the same thing you can find in screener also EPS growth yeah next five 29.2 nahu Finance it is showing 22.8 so we'll go with the 22.8 so we'll we need to be more conservative so let's go to formula our growth rate is 22 okay now EA EA means earnings before like tax depreciation uh amortization whatever it is right so all the loans everything whatever the earnings you had you had to minus all those things before that how much your earnings would be before deducting all those before the deductions whatever the amount you are earned so that is what e beta so EA how you find again go to screener come here in the chart area click on more go to ev/ EA the line is EV and this is the bar charts are EA so if you see the past 1 2 3 4 you'll find approximately see this line 14.8 15 so let's take 15 in an average e average is 15 now Peter Lynch fair value formula what is the Peter Lynch formula here for the banking SE EA into 5 years cagr is EA into EPS TTM okay EPS is we have already p in FA values equal to so one is our PEG ratio 1 into 5 uh EA what is that EPS you get 649 point so now you need to check this is greater than or lesser than the current value current price is 238 and the pl uh pet Lynch fair value comes around 649 so that means signal is buy this is the banking set similarly let's check for non-banking so let's see infosis NC last time also I told you if if you just put in it will not come it will go to the US so put n colon in you will get proper value current Google Finance here is so this is the current price now let's see EPS what is the EPS Ino search for in what is the EPS 58.8 come here 58 p ratio again using the Google Finance you can get the P ticker is this one comma P close bracket P you can check 25.10 I go to screener p is 25 Point okay then annual earning growth for this as I mentioned you can check here also which is EPS growth for years which is 9.79 let's see what is Yahoo finance showing infosis check the NSE go to anal come down 8.8 let's go with this one83 now what is the PEG ratio here P by annual learning equal to as a p divided by annual earning so this is your what is e beta let's go to the Chart again e beta on more go to EV e beta and see these are the average 1 2 3 Let's see approximately 15 15 14 so approximately sorry this this is the bar okay 26 24 it is between 24 and 25 so what is that so you can approximately say 24 okay let go and say e is 20 now go to our fair value calculation equal to PEG ratio PG into ebit into P okay so 4,000 so this signal is buy hope you are able to get it right so let's check the what do you say Karnataka bank I think I made a mistake in finding the E so average is 17.5 okay we have 17 .5 okay not a big difference I have put less only like 17 so still it's a good value so this is how you have to calculate and you have to find the valuation you understood and as I mentioned the intro pet Lynch clearly says that pick a stock which you really understand that company and what it does this is just a formula to understand whether it's a good buy or not understand until if you're not clear with the company and what it is doing don't just blindly go with this formula this is the final step you have to do so intrinsic value calculation I shown in the last video so that is one method and this is another method so another couple of methods are there I'll try to cover in other other videos you can try all this valuation method to arri a conclusion instead of just focusing on one method you can you can arrive the valuation in with so this another is dep using the what is dividend based valuation is there and discounted value valuation is there so couple of dando is there so multiple valuations are there I'll try to cover one by one so this is the second method just understand and again and again I'm saying that just understand and I'm repeating this again this is the last step you have to do the first step is finding the business which you clearly understand if you don't understand the business please don't get into this level of details first you to understand the business understand the M of the business for example if I um there is a I don't know whether you have read this book dando this is by uh monis monis PAB monis PAB is uh a inspiring person you can hear his interviews and video what he talks about stocks one of the very interesting insights what he mention is he gives an example if I give you or your your family say family can handle gives you four CR rupe okay and say the company um apple apple is one CR company okay will you buy that Apple company with 1 CR because you already have 4 CR in that 1 CR will you buy Apple if you have the gut to do that then get into the stock else don't pick the stock you hope you understand what I mean that means you will buy a business only if you have confidence because the money is something that you don't like to lose the stock market currently we have everything in Mobile uh Buy sell everything happens in quickly so we don't think all this kind of a thing and we just get biased with our opinion from others like influencers all those guys will come and tell you and based on that you buy a stock please don't do that you do your analysis that is what the mindful Finance is always about don't rely on others hope you like this video if you like it press the like button subscribe it and share it with your friends thank you
댓글 0