저자: TobyMathis · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 가치투자와 복리(compounding) 전략을 소개하는 교육 영상이다. 결론: 버핏이 쓴 최고의 투자법은 저평가된 복리형 우량주를 찾아 장기 보유하는 것이라는 주장. 가치투자 개념: 기업의 실제 자산가치(부동산, 임대권, 감가상각 등)를 시장가격과 비교해 저평가 기업을 찾는다. 부동산에서는 비교거래(comps)와 캡레이트(cap rate) 방식으로 가치를 달리 평가할 수 있다고 설명. 복리 전략: 복리 수익은 지수적으로 성장하며, 단순 성장주는 직선적으로 오른다고 비교. 배당을 꾸준히 늘리는 기업(예: 코카콜라, 1980년 매수, 56년 이상 배당 증가)을 장기 보유하는 것이 핵심. 배당을 주지 않고 현금을 쌓는 성장주는 주주에게 수익을 주지 않는다고 비판. 버크셔 해서웨이: 자회사 버크셔 해서웨이는 배당을 지급하지 않아 내부 복리 성장을 극대화한다는 설명. 실행 원칙: 한 번 좋은 기업을 사서 영원히 보유(holding period forever)하며 배당으로 생활하는 것을 목표로 함. 72의 법칙(72÷이자율=2배 소요 연수)을 예시로 제시(10%면 약 7.2년). 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 종목 추천이나 목표가 언급 없음. 리스크 관련 명시적 논의는 제한적.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, Toby Mathis here with Infinity Investing. Today we're going to talk about the greatest investment strategy of all time. I'm going to use my buddy Warren Buffett as the example. And we're going to get into the weeds a little bit, so I apologize, but it's really important that you understand his journey, so you understand why he's considered one of the greatest investors of all time.
Number one, Warren Buffett is the grandfather of something called value investing. And value investing is kind of like this. Let's say that you were going to invest in jelly beans. And there was a whole bunch of jars out there, and they're called publicly traded companies. And you could see by looking inside the jar and counting how many jelly beans are in there.
So, if I know that a jelly bean is worth a dollar, and there's a hundred jelly beans in a jar, then I could say that that company's worth a hundred dollars, right? You're looking at it saying all things being equal, that's worth a hundred bucks cuz there's a hundred jelly beans. What if that jar had a thousand jelly beans in it, and you could buy it for a hundred dollars?
That would mean it's an undervalued company. That's an undervalued jar, cuz people don't realize that there's a thousand jelly beans in there. And that's what a value investor is doing is they're trying to figure out what the actual value of what is inside the jar is. And that's where Buffett was, again, absolutely fantastic.
He would look for these companies, he would value their real estate, value their lease holds to see whether the leases are worth more if they're really long-term leases. He would figure out the depreciation schedules. He'd go out and say, "Not only was a building depreciated over time." And depreciation means you're taking a deduction, so that that value of that building, that basis, I mean, the basis is here, but the but the actual book value is is getting driven down.
Uh it's kind of like writing off a car. You write off the car, it doesn't really have any book value, but it still has a value to third parties. But you'd have to go in and figure out what is inside that jar, and how much is it worth? And when you start dealing with companies with billions of dollars of assets, it's a lot of work.
But it's exceptionally rewarding when you find companies that are undervalued. So, that's kind of the starting point is figuring out that there's companies out there that have assets that are considerably more valuable than what the market is telling you. And then there's the market value. We call it Mr.
Market. You know, you go in there and say, "What is the market What is the value of the company?" Whatever the market is telling us. There's enterprise value, there's all these different techniques, but in a nutshell, what you're trying to determine is is the share price representative of the actual value of that company.
If I was looking at real estate, I might say, "Here's a piece of real estate." And if I value it like my realtor might, which they use comps, and they look around the town, they say, "Hey, others other properties are selling for this." You might get one value. But if you value it as an investor might value, which is called cap rate, where you're getting a income stream, you might value the income stream even higher or lower.
So, depending on how you value that, so like let's say that I have a building in San Francisco, where the comps are really high. Like you have to pay up the nose to get properties, but an investor looks at it and says, "I'm not really making much money on my money, because the it's so expensive to buy a piece of property.
By the time I get all my rents in, and all my expenses, and operations, and all that, I'm really making one or two percent on my money. I'm not really interested. In some case, it's negative." So, there's different ways to value things. What we focus on is more on the side of the investor. I'm not interested in a company that's going to just grow in value over time.
I'm looking at compounders, and I believe that's the greatest strategy. Like if you want to get into where Buffett really makes his money, it's in compounding. And I'll explain it like this. Had Buffett passed away when he was in his 50s, he would have been considered a fairly normal investor. But the longer he lives, the more compounding his baseline grows.
In other words, when you look at compound interest, the chart grows exponentially. It doesn't grow geometrically, where it's just a static line. Your house, when you invest in it, chances are it's just going to grow on a static line. When we look at 50-year histories of property, they grow pretty consistently on a line.
Gold grows pretty consistently on a line. Stocks that are just growth stocks, in other words, they're not paying anything out, they're just holding on, they grow pretty much on a straight line. When you want to see exponential growth in any of those assets, you need to have compounders, and compounders is when you are making money on your money.
In other words, I'm not dependent on buying a stock at ten dollars and hoping that it goes to twenty. If it does that, I would have to sell it at twenty to make any money. I pay tax on that ten dollars that I made as well, and it's a one-time deal. So, one of one of uh I would call them Buffett's acolytes was talking about this, saying we were constantly going out trying to look for deals, and then when you made money on one, the next thing you had to do is go out and find another deal that you could make money on.
And it was very exhausting and very hard and a little bit risky. As opposed to just finding one good deal that then rewards you for for perpetual period of time. And that's what we focus on at Infinity Investing. We start focusing in on finding one good deal, and then it pays you forever. You don't sell it.
Our whole idea is that our holding period is forever, and that's actually a great quote from Buffett, cuz when they asked him, "What was your holding period on these companies that he was acquiring?" He'd say, "Forever. My intent is to hold them forever." Like there's a benefit to holding these types of companies.
They're constantly paying the shareholders. For example, he bought Coca-Cola in 1980 in the 80s. Coca-Cola's been increasing the payout to its shareholders every year for over 56 years. Every year, whether you know, cuz it makes money every year, and it doesn't hoard the cash. It doesn't just sit there on the cash.
It pays out a big chunk of it to its shareholders, and every year it pays the shareholders more. You do that for 50 years, the amount that you're receiving at the end of 50 years is more than you even paid for the company. In most most cases, you start realizing that not only does the company grow, but the dividend grows.
And the dividend growth could be ten, fifteen percent a year. Now we're starting to look at something very differently. We're starting to look at companies going, "Oh, what are the most healthy companies that are nicely profitable, and are going to be around in a hundred years?" That changes our dynamic completely from what's the next, you know, "Hey, what's the next Amazon?
I want to see if it goes up really fast." Where they don't pay anything out to their shareholders. You're basically giving an Amazon an interest-free loan, and they hoard that cash, they move it into other countries. And yes, they're dominating an industry, but you're not getting a benefit out of that.
The only way you'd get a benefit is if you sold your position. So, it's a little bit frustrating. As an investor, you want to be able to live off of your investments without selling them. Which means we're only interested in investments that actually reward us and pay out that dividend. And when you look at the success of companies over time that have, you know, historically given out increasing dividends for ten, twenty-five, fifty years, it significantly outperforms the rest of the market.
And if all you're doing is saying, "I want good companies that are profitable, that are paying out." We start We start focusing on that, has lots of value. It's It's a great deal, but instead of hoarding the cash and trying to to jack up their balance sheets that way, they're paying out to the shareholders.
That keeps that share price, by the way, more moderate. It's not It doesn't have all that cash jacking it up. So, think of it like this. We'll go back to our jelly beans. We're going in and we're finding a company that we're looking at the jar, and we're buying a let's say there's a hundred jelly beans in there.
We're saying, "Hey, we could we could pay ninety dollars for that hundred jelly beans." Right? You were Hey, that's a really good deal. But what if every year they paid you ten jelly beans? And every year they increased the number of jelly beans. So, in year one, it was ten. Year two, it was eleven.
Year three, it was twelve. Year four, it was thirteen. Like every year they increased out that payment. That's what we're looking for. We don't just want to buy the jelly beans. We want to buy the production. We want to buy the machine that's going to continue to pay us. So, when you look at Buffett, and you look at his net worth, it goes like this, because he's very interested in compounders.
He's very good at picking companies that are historically very great. And you want to know the punchline? His investment in his investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, they don't pay dividends. So, he literally says, "This is what we're focusing on. This is where we make a ton of money." And then his own company that he has all the investors in, doesn't even pay out the dividends.
Of course, they're going to grow in value like crazy. The guy's crazy like a fox. He's super smart. And he's like he and Charlie Munger, they have some great quotes. But one of the things they really looked at is this long-term investing approach. And we say Infinity Investing, you can't get longer than infinity.
So, we're buying things that's an income stream for two, three hundred years. That's what we're really looking at. If you want to benefit your kids, kids, kids, and your kids, kids, kids, kids, kids, then you want to have something that nobody has to mess with. You buy it once, and you let it reward you for hundreds of years, and it works great.
It's a different way of looking at things, and it's identifying compounders. The income on the income. If all you paid, like on a credit card, was straight interest, hey, I paid 7% a year, and this is what it looked like, credit card companies wouldn't be making much money. If you pay 7% uh interest on top of the 7% interest, like you're paying interest on the interest you are accruing, now it's growing much, much quicker.
Because it's not just simple, now it's compounding interest. And the rule 72 is the easiest way to look at this. Whatever your interest rate, divide 72 by that number, and that's how many years it takes it to double. So, if I have interest rate of 10%, and I'm and I have compound interest, fantastic.
I will I will double my money every 7.2 years. And that's not a bad return, and you're doing just great. So, you got to identify those compounders, and you'll do great. That's the greatest and best investment strategy of all time, hands down, period, is getting rid of the noise and zeroing in on compounders like a laser beam.
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