저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
금융 버블의 징후(과열 심리, 펀더멘털 괴리, '이번엔 다르다' 발언)와 투자 실수(추세 추종, 레버리지, 공황 매도)를 설명. 1961년 American Raceways 버블 경험담 소개. 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 연준 유동성이 버블을 낳을지는 불확실하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Welcome to our deep dive, dear listeners! Today we're talking about financial bubbles, a topic that affects us all, whether you 're an experienced investor or just starting to manage your finances. It's important to understand how these bubbles form and how to protect yourself from them. I completely agree.
Financial bubbles are a recurring phenomenon that often has devastating consequences for investors. That's precisely why we want to delve deeply into this topic with you today and give you practical tips on how to avoid typical mistakes. To make it all more tangible, we'll let a true professional guide us through the world of financial bubbles.
I'm delighted to share my experience with you. Okay, let's dive right in. What exactly are financial bubbles? A financial bubble forms when the prices of certain investments—stocks, real estate, or even cryptocurrencies—suddenly rise sharply without this increase being supported by their actual value.
This is called overvaluation. The prices are essentially inflated like a balloon. And just like a balloon, this bubble can eventually burst, causing prices to plummet. That doesn't exactly sound appealing, does it? That's reassuring, but how can you tell if a bubble is forming? There are some warning signs to look out for, for example, strong market euphoria.
When everyone is talking about the next big thing and prices are skyrocketing, you should be careful. That means if suddenly everyone around me is investing in a certain stock, I should be skeptical. Yes, exactly, because often it's already too late and the bubble is about to burst. Are there other signs to look out for?
Yes, for example, if prices deviate significantly from the so-called fundamentals. Fundamentals are information about a company or asset class that influences its value. Okay, but what exactly are these fundamentals? Can you explain that with an example? Let's say you want to invest in a bakery. Then the fundamentals are, for example, the number of customers who buy rolls daily, the costs for flour and personnel, and the profit the bakery makes.
If the bakery's share price suddenly explodes even though the bakery is n't selling more rolls or cutting its costs, then that could be a sign of a bubble. That makes sense. So you should always check whether the price SEG is also backed by the company's actual values, exactly, and one should n't be blinded by supposed experts who claim that this time everything is different.
This phrase is a classic in every bubble phase. Why is this phrase so dangerous? Because it suggests that the old rules no longer apply and that one can make unlimited money with new technologies or trends. But history shows that bubbles always recur, and that one shouldn't ignore the risks. Okay, that means I shouldn't blindly jump on the hype train but always critically question what's behind it.
Right, and one should n't forget that emotions are often a bad advisor on the stock market. What do you mean by that? Greed and fear can lead to making rash decisions. In a bubble phase, for example, one easily gets caught up in the euphoria and invests more money than one should, and when the bubble bursts, one panics and sells everything at a loss.
That's exactly what one should avoid. Okay, so one should try to keep one's emotions in check and act rationally. Exactly, and one shouldn't let oneself be swayed by the so-called FOMO (fear of missing out). What exactly is " formomo"? Formomo is the fear of missing out. You see how other people seem to be making a lot of money with a certain investment and you really want to join in, even if you do n't actually know if that investment is right for you.
I know that feeling. You scroll through social media and see everyone raving about their profits. Exactly, and then it's easier to be tempted to make rash decisions. But how can you protect yourself against "formomo"? By being aware of your own goals and risk tolerance. You should ask yourself: What do I want to achieve with my money?
How much risk am I willing to take? And then you should develop an investment strategy that suits your needs. That sounds like a good plan, but what about specific investment tips? What should you do if you fear that a bubble is forming? The most important tip is diversification. That means you shouldn't invest your money in just one asset class, but spread it broadly.
Can you explain that with an example? Let's imagine all your money is invested in shares of technology companies. If the tech bubble bursts, you might lose a large part of your assets. But if you... If you invest in different asset classes, for example, stocks, bonds, real estate, and gold, then the risk is lower.
That makes sense, so don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification is one of the most important strategies to protect your assets in the long term. Okay, and what about selecting individual investments? What should you pay attention to? You should always look at the fundamentals, for example, the profits a company makes or the rental income of a property.
And then you should also be familiar with the industry or market in which you are investing. That means I shouldn't just blindly invest in a stock just because it's currently trending. Right, you should always do research and try to understand how the company or asset class works. And what about the time factor?
Should you invest long-term, or can you also take short-term profits? That depends on your own investment strategy. Someone who invests long-term, for example, for retirement savings, can tolerate short-term market fluctuations. But someone who wants to make short-term profits has to take on higher risks and deal intensively with market developments.
That means there is no universally applicable answer. Everyone has to decide for themselves which strategy suits them best. Exactly, and you should always be aware of that. That no profit is guaranteed on the stock market; there's always a risk of losing money. That's an important point. So you should only invest money that you can afford to lose in an emergency.
Absolutely, and you shouldn't be guided by trends, because trends can lead you to take unnecessary risks and end up losing more than you gain. Okay, those are some important tips. But what mistakes should you absolutely avoid when investing in financial markets? One of the most common mistakes is blindly following trends.
Many investors let themselves be driven by the crowd and invest in stocks or other investments that are currently experiencing a boom without adequately informing themselves. So don't just follow the herd. Exactly, you should always critically question why an investment is so popular right now and whether the price increase is justified.
That sounds plausible. Are there any other typical mistakes? Another mistake is investing with borrowed money, so- called leverage. Leverage can increase profits, but it can also multiply losses. Can you explain that with an example? Sure. Let's assume you have €1000. And you want to invest in a stock that's currently rising in price.
You could invest your €1000 now and hope the stock continues to rise. Alternatively, you could take out a loan and invest, for example, €2000. With the loan, you essentially leverage your investment. You then have leverage, which means you can earn more money with leverage. Yes, but you can also lose more.
If the stock falls, you lose not only your €1000 but also the loan you took out. That sounds risky, and it is. That's why you should only use leverage with extreme caution and only if you truly understand the risks. Okay, I'll remember that. Are there any other mistakes you should avoid? Yes, for example, selling in a panic after a crash.
Many investors see prices falling and want to limit their losses, but often that's the wrong time to sell. Why is that? Because markets often recover after a crash. Those who sold in a panic may end up losing even more money. That means you should stay calm and not act rashly. It's crucial to have a long-term investment strategy and not let short-term fluctuations unsettle you.
Letting yourself be guided by emotions is good advice, but how can you learn to keep your emotions in check? Especially in turbulent times, that's not always easy, that's true. But there are some techniques that can help. For example, it can be useful to set a fixed budget for risky investments. This way, you avoid investing too much in the heat of the moment.
That sounds like a sensible approach. Are there any other tips? It can also be helpful to constantly remind yourself why you're actually investing. What are your long-term goals? What do you want to achieve with the money? When you have your own goals clearly in mind, it's easier to make rational decisions and not be guided by emotions.
That's true. If you're investing for retirement, for example, then a short-term stock market crash might be annoying, but in the long run, it's not so dramatic. Exactly, it's important not to get flustered and to stick to your investment strategy. These are some valuable tips, but as you've already said, financial bubbles are complex, and there's no guarantee that you'll always recognize them correctly.
That's true, but the more you know about financial markets and the history of financial bubbles, the better you can identify them. Assessing risks and making informed decisions is absolutely crucial. That's why it's so important to delve into the topic and learn how to recognize the warning signs. Only those who understand the mechanisms can effectively protect themselves from the dangers.
You mentioned that you've seen several bubbles come and go in your career. Was there an experience that particularly stuck in your memory? Yes, the microcap bubble of 1961 made a lasting impression on me. I was still relatively new to the business back then and experienced the power of euphoria firsthand for the first time.
What happened back then? There was a stock called American Raceways that rose from $7 to over $100 within a few weeks. The company had bought the Michigan Speedway and planned to host Formula 1 races. The first races were a complete success, and the euphoria was enormous. Of course, everyone probably thought it was the next gold mine.
Exactly, and so the stock price rose immeasurably. But as is the case with bubbles, they eventually burst. Formula 1 could n't maintain its momentum, and the stock price plummeted. That almost sounds like a rollercoaster ride! So, you could say that. I lost a lot of money back then, but I learned even more.
I learned that you should n't get swept away by the crowd, and that's important. Even in times of great enthusiasm, it's crucial to keep a cool head. That's valuable advice because it's especially difficult to think rationally during bubble phases. The mood is often so euphoric that you ignore the risks.
Exactly, you get swept away by the crowd and forget your own goals and risk tolerance. Right, you should always ask yourself whether the investment really suits you and whether you can bear the risk in case of a loss. Exactly. Another point that stuck with me is the statement "This time everything is different." Why is this sentence so dangerous?
Because it leads people to ignore the risks and blindly invest in the hype. In every bubble, there are people who claim that the old rules no longer apply and that you can make unlimited money with the new technologies or trends. But history shows that bubbles always repeat themselves. Exactly, and that's why it's so important to know the warning signs and critically examine them.
That's right, we've already discussed some warning signs today, for example... Strong euphoria in the market, prices that deviate significantly from the fundamentals, a concentration on a few small-cap stocks, and the ignoring of warning signals and critics – these are all important points to pay attention to.
And what about the role of central banks? The US Federal Reserve has pumped a lot of money into the markets in recent years; could this lead to new bubbles? The monetary policy of the new wave certainly has an influence on the markets, but it's difficult to say whether it directly leads to bubbles. It's a complex topic.
So, what would you say? That's the most important message our listeners should take away today. Yes, yes, so my most important message is that you should be aware of the risks in the financial markets and not invest blindly. You should critically question, research, and form your own opinion. That's good advice, and you shouldn't let yourself be infected by the euphoria in the market but keep your emotions in check.
Do n't let yourself be guided by fear and anxiety. These are valuable tips. Thank you very much for the conversation. Yes, dear listeners, if you would like to delve even deeper into the topic of financial bubbles, then take a look at... Check out Jeremy Grantham's videos! Grantham is a renowned investor and analyst who has been dealing with financial bubbles for decades.
You'll find many interesting insights and analyses there. And in-depth content. Until next time, see you soon!
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