저자: MichelleMarkey · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 자사주 매입의 장점과 한계를 Buffett 발언 중심으로 정리하며, 특정 종목의 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다. 자사주 매입 기본 개념: 배당, 시세차익과 함께 자사주 매입은 주주에게 자금을 돌려주는 방식이며, 발행주식 수가 줄어 지분 가치가 커진다. 자사주 매입 논란: 2023년부터 상장사 자사주 매입에 1% 특별소비세(excise tax)가 도입되며, 주가가 내재가치보다 높을 때 자사주를 사는 것은 비효율적일 수 있다는 지적이 있다. Buffett 발언(1998 버크셔 주총 인용): 코카콜라는 약 15배 PER에서 매입하는 것이 바람직하지만, 20배에서도 매입이 현명할 수 있다고 봤다. 버크셔의 코카콜라 지분은 1988년 6.3%에서 현재 8% 이상으로 늘었다. Charlie Munger 발언: 주가가 지나치게 높으면 자사주 매입은 어리석을 수 있으며, 우량기업이 높은 PER에서 매입하는 것은 현명할 수 있다. 1990년대 말 공익기업들이 주가 부양 목적으로 자사주를 매입한 것은 폰지 게임과 같았다고 비판했다. 기업별 사례: 버크셔의 GEICO 지분은 자사주 매입 덕분에 33%에서 50%로 늘었고, 워싱턴포스트 지분도 매입 없이 증가했다. 최근 S&P500 자사주 매입 흐름: 2021년 8,820억 달러 기록, 2022년 약 1조 달러 전망. 애플과 구글은 높은 수준의 자사주 매입을 유지했다. 버크셔 자사주 매입 축소: 2022년 1분기 32억 달러, 2·3분기 각 약 10억 달러로 줄었고, 주가는 고점 대비 약 20% 하락한 290달러 수준으로 언급됨. 애플 관련: Buffett의 2022년 주주서한은 애플 자사주 매입을 칭찬하며 버크셔 지분이 5.55%로 늘었다고 밝혔다. 애플 주가는 170~180달러 구간에서 130달러 수준으로 하락한 것으로 언급되며, 자사주 매입 확대가 긍정적이라는 취지다. 경기 및 리스크: 소비 둔화, 연준 금리 인상, 중국 아이폰 생산 차질이 애플의 자사주 매입 속도를 늦출 수 있다고 언급. 구글은 주가 하락 후 자사주 매입을 늘릴 수 있다는 관측. 출연자 전망: 명시적인 방향 예측 없이 '각자 리서치 필요'를 강조하며, 우량기업 투자를 권유하는 중립적 입장.
다듬은 글
hey investor friends I'm Michelle Markey and when you're a shareholder in a publicly traded company you might expect to get your money back or a return on investment in a number of ways one of which is a dividend where a company gives you back cash out of its earnings and that's usually taxed both at the corporate level and also on the individual level if that stock isn't in a tax advantaged retirement account or also if the business just grows its core businesses or buys businesses and generates more earnings and then that in turn might lead to a higher stock price in the future then you might have some capital gains if you bought at a lower price and sold at a higher price and another way you can get money back is through companies doing stock BuyBacks or share repurchases where it means that your slice of the company's pie becomes bigger because there are less shares outstanding and your ownership in that company grows bigger the more that a company does stock BuyBacks but lately in the past few years stock BuyBacks have become somewhat controversial because politicians have accused companies of doing too many stock BuyBacks where perhaps it's at the expense of making the company's stock price look better than what it should be and there's less cash to be able to actually invest in the company's core growth so now starting in 2023 there's going to be a one percent excise tax on public company stock BuyBacks which kind of is not great because if stock BuyBacks are done when the stock price is low compared to its intrinsic value then stock BuyBacks are good but when they're just being done at all-time highs and it may not be reflecting a good intrinsic value then maybe that's too much to pay for your own stock so sometimes companies management haven't always been the best at doing stock BuyBacks and knowing what is the true value of the company's stock and we can take a listen to famous investor Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management ask legendary investors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at the 1998 Berkshire Hathaway meeting if there's a limit to the stock price that companies should use their Capital at which to buy back stock because if they just keep buying back stock at Forever high prices then that might not be so good where it could be like just taking a company's cash into a parking lot and setting it on fire if companies could be paying too high of a price but let's listen to what Warren Buffett said and if you appreciate content like this please be sure to like And subscribe and enjoy what you're about to hear yes Bill Ackman from New York is there a price in which it's inappropriate for a company to use its capital buyback its stock all right give me that again uh Coca-Cola at uh 40p is that a smart place for Coke to deploy Capital well it it sounds like a very high price when you name it in terms of a PE to buy back the stock at at uh uh that sort of number but I would say this uh Coca-Cola's been around 100 and 12 years now and uh uh there are very few times in that 112 years if any when it would have not have been smart for Coca-Cola be repurchasing its shares Coca-Cola is probably in my view among businesses that I can understand it's the best large business in the world I mean it is a fantastic business and uh we love it when Coke repurchases shares and our interest goes up we owned 6.3 percent of Coca-Cola in 1988 when we bought in we actually increased out a little bit a few years later but if they had not repurchased shares we probably would own about 6.7 percent or 6.8 percent of coke now as it is we own a little over eight percent uh through repurchases uh they're going to be about a billion eight ounce servings of coke sold around the world or Coca-Cola products sold around the world today uh eight percent of that is 80 million and 6.8 percent of 68 million so they're 12 million extra servings for the account of Berkshire Hathaway being sold around the world and they're making a little over a penny a serving so you know that that gets me kind of excited and I I think it all I can tell you is I approve of of coke repurchasing shares I'd rather have them repurchasing chairs at at 15 times earnings but but when I look at other ways to use capital I still think it's a very it's a very good use of capital and maybe the day will come when they can buy it at 20 times earnings and if they can I hope they go out and borrow a lot of money to buy a ton of it at those prices and I think we will be better off 20 years from now if Coke follows a consistent repurchase approach I do not think that is true for many companies I mean I think that repurchases have become in Vogue and done for a lot of silly reasons and uh so I I don't think everybody's repurchase of shares uh is well reasoned at all you know we see companies that issue options by the ton and then they repurchase shares much higher you know I started reading about Investments when I was six and I think the first thing that I read was you know Buy Low sell high but these companies through their options you know they sell low and then they buy high and they've got a different formula than I was taught so there are a number that we don't approve of when we have when we own stock in a wonderful business we like the idea of repurchases even at prices that that may give you nosebleeds it generally turns out to be a pretty good policy Charlie well I think the answer is that in any company the stock could get to a price so high it would be foolish for the corporation to repurchase its shares sure and you can even get into gross abuse before the crash the insul utilities were madly buying their own shares as a way of promoting the stock higher it was like a giant Ponzi scheme at the end so there's all kinds of excess that's possible but the really great companies that buy a high price earnings where that's that can be wise our interest in Geico went from 33 to 50 percent without us laying out a dime because Geico was repurchasing its shares and we benefited substantially but we benefited a lot more obviously when prices were were lower I mean we would we would are interested in the Washington Post company has gone from nine in a fraction percent to 17 in a fraction percent over the years without us buying a single share but the post or Coke or any number of companies don't get the bargain in repurchasing now that they used to we still think it's probably the best best use of money in many cases and so like Charlie Munger said there is a stock price that could be so high that it would make it foolish to do any more stock BuyBacks at that point in time but it seems like that hasn't stopped companies like Berkshire Hathaway and apple to do stock BuyBacks because throughout 2020 and 2021 these companies did some of the most stock BuyBacks that they've ever done and 2021 was an especially record-setting year for the S P 500 where it had totaled 882 billion dollars and this year is set to be around one trillion dollars worth of stock BuyBacks among the S P 500 and yet some big tech companies like Apple and Google have maintained a high amount of share BuyBacks and this and considering that apple is only down 25 percent year to date while Google or alphabet is down about 40 percent year to date so it's interesting how big Tech with all of its cash is trying to help prop up their share prices maybe or maybe they've determined that their stock is at such a good value right now that they might as well use the cash that they have on hand to plunk it back into their own stock because they might be wonderful companies where it's worth it to keep doing share repurchases and even higher amounts and all of this compares to how Berkshire Hathaway had been doing a lot of stock BuyBacks leading up to the end of 2021 and that culminated in Berkshire share price reaching about 360 dollars a share in March 2022 but since the first quarter this year Berkshire pulled back a lot on their share repurchases where in the first quarter order they only did 3.2 billion dollars and then the second and third quarters this year they only did about 1 billion a piece so gradually even though you would think Berkshire Hathaway's share price is even more attractive now that it's come down about 20 from its all-time high and at the time I'm recording this it was trading at about 290 dollars a share Berkshire isn't investing in their own stock as much so maybe they found other equities or businesses that could be even more on sale than Berkshire Hathaway stock and this year Warren Buffett had written his annual letter that came out in late February 2022 where he was actually praising the share BuyBacks of apple and also its CEO Tim Cook where he said that Apple our runner-up giant as measured by its year-end market value is a different sort of holding here our ownership is a mere 5.55 up from 5.3 39 a year earlier that increase sounds like small potatoes but consider that each 0.1 percent of Apple's 2021 earnings amounted to a hundred million dollars we spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion Apple's repurchases did the job it's important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the Gap earnings Berkshire reports and last year Apple paid us 785 million of those yet our share of Apple's earnings amounted to a staggering 5.6 billion dollars much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares and act we applaud Tim Cook Apple's brilliant CEO quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim's managerial touch as well so this all goes to show that Warren Buffett approved of Apple buying back its shares even when it was reaching some of its highest share prices and the 170 or 180 dollars per share range and at the time I'm recording it it came down to about the 130 dollar per share range but either way it's good that apple is increasing its share repurchases throughout 2022 as its stock goes down because as we've seen it's proven to be one of the best companies and it could also be having its stock price kept up where it is because a lot of people are doing some passive Index Fund investing and a lot of that goes towards the highest market cap weighted stock in the S P 500 which is Apple so it's no wonder that Apple stock price has been able to stay as high as it has been compared to something like the likes of Google which Berkshire Hathaway isn't invested in but yet it's come down significantly and it's Fallen even harder than Apple stock has and so maybe it's a good thing that alphabet is buying back even more of its shares now that its stock price is kind of beaten up so overall we can see that if a company is a wonderful company especially as deemed by one of the best investors of all time Warren Buffett then maybe it's not so bad if even apple is buying back its shares at some of its highest prices but maybe it will temper some of that the more that the economy sort of calms down and starts to slow down based on a number of factors like consumer spending less and the FED hiking interest rates and also some challenges with getting iPhones produced in China so maybe Apple will also slow down and maybe its stock price will continue to go down but you would hope that Apple will just keep buying back its shares the lower its stock price goes and then that will continue to enrich Apple shareholders and it's interesting how also Berkshire Hathaway stock isn't down that much from where it started this year like at the time I'm recording this Berkshire stock was only down by about four percent so even though it had run up a lot and a lot of that was thanks to berkshire's own stock BuyBacks it's also calmed down somewhat and I could foresee that maybe Buffett is finding better opportunities to deploy the capital instead of buying back Berkshire stock even though maybe it's still an attractive price to pay but of course none of this is advice you have to do your own research to see what your understanding is of companies and what price you're willing to pay if you're willing to invest in these companies and so investing in the most wonderful companies till next time
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