저자: RayDalio/본영상은UnveiledViews채널진행자의해설위주 · 외국인
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영상은 CNN 인터뷰(Fareed Zakaria 진행)에서 Ray Dalio가 트럼프 행정부 관세·정책의 경제 영향을 논하는 장면과 Zanny Belloni의 반박을 소개하며, 진행자는 Belloni의 관세·달러 위기 주장을 허위·공포 조장으로 규정한다. 근거로 관세율이 약 2%에서 20% 이상으로 상승, 최근 주식·채권·달러 동반 하락, 시장은 연초 대비 약 5% 하락 수준이라는 점을 든다. 다만 자막상 Dalio는 정책의 방향 자체보다 변동성과 실행 방식을 문제 삼았다.
다듬은 글
You guys had a cover of the US dollar, as I recall, shaped like a rocket ship going up and the and the cover line was the envy of the world. What has changed in this short period? The administration has changed and we have a new administration engaged to remake America's foreign policy to completely transform its economy to attack independent institutions, law firms, universities, the Federal Reserve chairman.
And that's led to massive shocks, a massive geopolitical shock, but most importantly, as Ken Griffin said, a dramatic economic shock in the form of the tariffs, a huge self-inflicted wound. Ray Dallio does an amazing interview where he sets the record straight on this CNN show with Farreed Zakaria. Also who chimes in is economist Zany Beos who makes her claim on the leftleaning narrative on how what Trump's doing in tariffs are bad.
But if we listen to Ray Dallio sets the record straight on what needs to be done and what the actual narrative should be moving forward. This is a good one. Hope you like the video and subscribe. This is going to be a good one. In October you guys had a cover of the US dollar as I recall shaped like a rocket ship going up and the and the cover line was the envy of the world.
And today uh this week you have a badly damaged American eagle looking like it needs you know restorative surgery on many fronts. What has changed in this short period? Well, the administration has changed and we have a new administration engaged in a revolutionary project to remake America's foreign policy to completely transform its economy to attack independent institutions, law firms, universities, the Federal Reserve chairman.
And that's led to massive shocks, a massive geopolitical shock, but most importantly, as Ken Griffin said, a dramatic economic shock in the form of the tariffs, a huge self-inflicted wound. And so suddenly the United States from being a an incredibly successful economy, which is what we were highlighting last year, has put these enormously self-inflicted wounds and is becoming a place where outsiders look and think, is this a credible economy?
We can't predict what's going to happen tomorrow or the next day. Institutions, credibility, the rule of law, all the things that people took for granted in the US are now being questioned. And we have another huge number of days to go. Um, so Rey, your Bridgewater, the firm you uh you founded, put out a a report a couple of days ago and it says uh it reflects what Zany was saying and says that all of this produces huge risks.
We expect a policy induced slowdown including a probability of a recession. Uh the Fed is going to uh be less able to handle this and so there are risks of stagflation. the combination of slow growth and inflation, US corporates are under threat. Um, there's exceptional risk to US assets. Would you agree with that?
Um, by and large I'd agree with that. I I I don't think it covers what's going on. So, let me just clarify. We have a problem with the debt. We have a problem with internal order, democracy as we're we know it, the system. We have a problem of a geopolitical order. Rising power, challenging an existing power in that global environment.
These things exist as the backdrop of this set of circumstances. Now, there's been volatility. There's been Yes. In my opinion, I I I guess what I'm trying to get at is you seem to be reluctant to to comment directly. No, I'll comment directly. What are what are the effects of the Trump administration's policies in the last 100 days economically?
Um the effects of those policies economically is to bring to the surface issues about the polarity that exists and at the same time it's doing it in a um volatile way that is causing that is causing trouble in terms of the volatility of that. Okay. So it is dealing with problems and at the same time it is uh the way it is dealing with problems could be done more smoothly more cooperatively to produce a less volatile result.
Fared Z is interviewing Ray Dallio here in which Ray Dallio is one of the best and has the largest hedge fund in America. And Ray Dallio has been talking about the economy for the last 20 years in ways that are uh that are historic as far as the intelligence being put forward. and he says in this particular interview, listen, based upon your question, this doesn't really cover the problem on what's actually going on.
And as Ray Dallio goes to explain, uh, for Reed the interrupts and says, "You're circumventing." And Ray Dallio says, "No, I'm not. I'll answer it." And Ray Dallio says the policies that are putting forth to deal with the issue are necessary. Even though they could be done in a way that's more smoother, they are absolutely necessary.
And these answers that Ray Dallio is giving are in stark contrast to the female Xany Beettos. Uh she has a very different opinion. And as we go forward in this interview, we're going to see the the stark contrast, but Ray Dallio is giving an excellent answer here, and we're going to see what Zany has to say as this interview continues.
Uh Zany, let me ask you, you said we're still not, you know, we're still not out of the woods and is because many of these tariffs have just been paused. You're talking about negotiating with dozens and dozens of countries simultaneously. um you know assume the best case scenario that they they that they get a bunch of trade deals with most of these countries.
I want to keep China for later. You still are at a situation where tariffs will be much higher, right? I mean American tariffs were around 2 and a half%. I I don't know where they will end up but they're clearly going to be somewhere between 10 and 20% now. So does that itself I mean that alone changes the the e economic outlook.
Correct. Yeah. Absolutely. I mean this has been the single biggest tariff increase in history. The US tariffs as you say were around 2%. They went above 20%. They're well above 20% now. It's a 10-fold increase. And and Rey is an expert on long-term economic trends. And I agree with him. There are fundamental challenges facing the US, particularly the size of the budget deficit.
But what I think is undisputable is that this administration has chosen an economic course. This enormous increase in tariffs, which pretty much every economist will tell you is completely self-defeating. Whatever you hear, this is a tax on consumers. It's likely to push the economy into recession. But more important than that is that it is eroding investors faith in the dollar.
And the dollar is the absolute basis of the global financial system. US treasuries are the safest of safe assets. And what we've seen right now is that in the last few weeks is that investors are worrying about US assets because you're seeing the stock market fall. You're seeing bond yields rise, bond prices fall, and the dollar fall.
And that kind of simultaneous falling of pretty much every asset is something that you can see in emerging markets when they have a crisis. But it's not what you expect in the United States. And because the United States, as Rey has written, is sort of at the basis of the global financial system, that is what is seriously dangerous right now.
We could at some point, and I'm not saying it's it's necessarily going to happen, but there's an uncomfortably high risk that we have a serious dollar crisis as investors move out secularly of US assets. And that would be catastrophic, even even worse than the impact of this enormous tariff increase.
And frankly, all of that is to me the wrong medicine for the problems that the US has. I happen to think the US economy is in much better shape than many people do, but it's it with this self-inflicted wound, it is really hurting itself and causing potentially enormous damage to the rest of the world, too.
So, this woman Xany absolutely positively has no idea what she's talking about. She's just making up things. And this is why this is important, and you need to know it. She made a lot of claims that the old historically the the United States have had 2% tariffs on other countries and now it's approximately going to be risen to 20% and this is somehow going to be negative and affect Americans in a negative way.
That's absolutely stupid. The fact that we've increased tariffs on other countries is going to allow the America to have more income than we've ever had before. 2% as a tax rate on all the countries has has allowed us to make no money on trade essentially. And the fact that we've increased it to 20% is going is going to cause us to have a dramatically rise in income for America.
And the fact that she's saying this is harmful. This is going to go to the this is going to be charged to the American. Oh yeah, it is going to be charged to the American in a positive way because things are going to be much more beneficial. So all that of what she's saying is a complete lie. I don't think she understands what she's saying as an economist.
Next, she says this is going to cause a recession. No tariffs as of right now have been put in play that are showed to be harmful at all. They're in negotiation steps they are talking it out and they're going to go through it. The only one of these tariffs as far as countries that we've kind of kept in play because they're not playing by the rules.
They don't care. They are preaching ma ma ma never surrender. It's China and she's just doing a lot of fear and she doesn't seem to know what she's talking about. At the end of the day when you look at the strength of the dollar what she says is getting weaker. She has no idea what she's talking about.
Uh when we compare the dollar versus China the dollar has made has stayed stable. When you compare the dollar towards the Philippines, Thailand, all these other eastern countries and a lot of other countries, the dollar has stayed stable throughout this whole entire period. So what she shang is a lie.
She doesn't know what she's talking about. The market has been sideways completely this year. Has been up and down, but as of right now, it's only been down 5% since January. And as far as when the tariffs were put in play and when they have been talked about, the market has recovered significantly since we've even started talking about tariffs.
So the fact that the market is being hit with terror from the conversation of tariffs is a lie. This woman is just fearonger. She has absolutely no idea what she's talking about. She is ridiculous. And that's why you got to be careful with these CNN host impugnants because they don't know what they're talking about.
I hope you like this video. Make sure you liked and subscribed. I'll see you on the next video.
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