저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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결론: 성장주 조정은 길어질 수 있으니 실적과 현금흐름이 확실한 유형자산 기업을 보유하고, 투기적 개념주는 피하라는 조언. 시장 상황: 조정(10~20% 하락) 국면이며 다우 소폭 하락 후 장중 반등, S&P500 -0.54%, 나스닥 -1.40%로 마감. 10일 연속 하락 종목이 상승 종목을 上回는 약세 신호가 이어짐. 금리·연준: 연준의 긴축(금리 인상 우려)과 인플레이션이 개념주에 이중 압박. 2018년 10~12월과 유사한 시나리오가 전개될 수 있으나 현재는 당시보다 과열 정도가 덜하다고 평가. 종목 - 애플: 실적 호조(아이폰·웨어러블·서비스 매출, 활성 기기 18억 대), 공급망 개선으로 보유 권고. 종목 - 뉴코어·맥코믹: 실물 기업으로 배당·자사주 매입 가능성이 있어 보유 관점 언급. 개념주(고성장·적자 기업): 매출 기준으로 거래되며 실적이 없어 하락 위험이 큼. 연준 긴축 시 가장 크게 타격받을 것으로 봄. 아크 이노베이션 ETF(ARKK, 캐시 우드): 테슬라·Zoom·Roku·코인베이스 등 성장주 중심. 연초 대비 약 30% 하락. 이에 대한 반대 베팅 수단으로 SARK(역방향 ETF) 소개, 다만 과열된 베팅은 경계. 리스크: 연준이 예상보다 강하게 긴축할 경우 성장주 추가 하락, 공급망·노동 부족 해결 여부가 인플레이션 경로를 좌우. 출연자 전망: 실물·고품질 기업 보유로 조정을 버티고, 개념주는 회피하거나 하락에 베팅 가능하다는 입장. 전반적으로 단기 약세 인식이나 방향성은 명확히 제시하지 않음. 시청자 질의(존, 예티): 예티는 배당·자본환원 및 제품 제조 측면에서 조정을 버틸 수 있는 종목으로 긍정적 언급.
다듬은 글
my mission is simple to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it mad money starts now hey i'm kramer welcome to mad money welcome to craig america i'll be with my friends i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743 cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer you know what i know that people hate me when i just say stay the course or stay put during a correction which is what we call a decline of 10 to 20 percent like the one we're in the middle of right now including today where the dow dipped seven points but that was up afterwards that was it was up 500 points in the morning nauseating the s p lost point five four percent in the nasdaq tumble 1.40 i mean it is just miserable over there nobody wants your state of course they want action yeah they want an excuse to sell everything and then circle back at a lower level the right level i can't play them who wants to be the bull in the ring i went to a bull fight once in san miguel de allende mexico and it was horrifying i would have done anything to drag that bull out of that death trap but it doesn't work that way in stocks there's the piccador phase where the bull gets jabbed in the head and the neck over and over again to weaken those muscles and then there's the murder or slaying whatever euthanism you prefer i don't want you to get slaughtered like that i don't want you to be that bull which is why i keep telling you to own shares and real companies that make real things and generate real profits perhaps you're turning them to shareholders with dividends and buybacks companies like new core the steel maker or mccormick the spice maker both which are on the show tonight it's why i keep recommending that you own apple don't trade it something that makes you feel pretty good at least for this moment if you saw the numbers after the bell tonight it was a tray of superlatives on almost every line a tech triumph over almost all supply chain issues sharply better than expected iphone sales wearables and services the company now has had has 1.8 billion active devices and get this they attract a stunning amount of service revenue as you can only imagine even better the supply chain situation got better for apples the quarter 1-1 it means that they could continue with this fervent pace this quarter i think each user is going to be worth thousands of dollars per customer lifetime value as they roll out health and entertainment options that are so popular now these tangible types of companies can feel the sting of the picadores during a correction but they're all best to breed so they won't ultimately face the matador which means they won't be slain however a few of the more conceptual names the formerly huge winners betting that they be the next tesla or the next amazon or apple these are typically money losing companies that stocks trade on basis of sales not earnings because there are no earnings now some of them do make money but they've gone out of style the wall street fashion show because they're still revenue growth stories and i don't know when they're going to come back when the federal reserve decides to hit the brakes in the economy again jay palace piccolor your head and neck are exposed with these former high flyers because the conceptual stocks simply aren't worth as much as in the tangible stocks of the versus the tangible stocks of this environment you know it's really a double whammy the twin matadors of inflation and impending rate hikes either one could behead these stocks but both as overkill now this market's been down for a long time i use the s p proprietary oscillator to monitor the selling pressure i go over it at 10 20 each morning uh in my morning meeting with jeff marks you got to watch this this is remember the club you can't see it otherwise and it's going to be stunning when i show it tomorrow and we talk about it but also this is of great interest this is the tenth day in a row where decliners thank you s p outpaced advances in new york stocks do you know that this has been 20 years there's never been a period not in 20 years that's how bad this market really is and uh this is what happens when jay pal just even talks about raising rates and it happened by the way in late 2018.
that said it's still nowhere near the low readings we saw during the kovac crash in 2020 so you don't really get great comfort but the october to december 2018 scenario is totally in play now back then powell wanted to stop inflation but he overdid it this time he's being more considered but we also have more inflation and we're much closer to full employment if not there if not overshot which gives the fed a lot less wiggle room if something goes wrong even if powell's more deliberate this time he can't turn on a dime and walk everything back like he did after he crushed the market in 2018.
in my world i believe you can ride out the correction with high quality stocks of tangible companies like the ones we own for my chapel trust like the ones i'll talk about tomorrow at the 10 20 morning meeting uh like apple no we don't want we don't know when the picture will stop hectoring us but there's no sign of the matador on horseback circling in for the kill of the quality names i want you to think of his two separate bowl rings one for the tangible stocks and one for the conceptual stocks there's only one matador and he's in there with the conceptual bull these formerly high flying stocks have already been cut to pieces and it's an open question though where they can get out of the ring alive how can the beaten down conceptual stocks make it well if you think we can fix the supply chain crisis quickly that causes prices to up remember those problems if you think we can fix the labor shortage well that's wage inflation there may be a lot less federal assistance this year and if you think commodities can go uh quickly from shortage maybe to glut then this pool gets out alive because powell will take his foot off the break but i don't want to be in the conceptual bull ring but if you don't see that happening you should not be betting on these stocks in fact you actually might want to bet against them how do you do it all right ladies and gentlemen let me introduce you to the ultimate hedge let me introduce you to the ark more specifically the arc innovation etf which is run by kathy wood the best money manager of 2020 albeit not 2021 and probably not 2022.
now wood owns this is the ark okay wood owns a ton of textbook growth names a tesla teledoc zoom video roku coinbase exact sciences unity software spotify neil young uipath intellia therapeutics it's kind of a curious amalgam of animals pandemic plays cryptocurrency enablers medical health breakthrough companies cost savers in a streaming music service now most of these aren't like the hundreds of junk companies that came public last year the ipos and these torture space names woods favorites are often profitable their stocks have only recently begun to lose you money because their momentum plays that now have lost their momentum now they're not like servicenow now bill mcdermott gross software company they reported terrific number last night because they helped their clients keep costs down at a time of rampant inflation stock popped 44 points however if you want a diversified portfolio of high quality profitable companies that make real things provide real services and you don't have the confidence to swap out and swap back in i don't think you can because that time is hard i have a brutal solution for you the ark innovation fund is listing down 30 for the year see this is my arc innovation right uh and it's that's it had another drumming today if you think it's headed further down the cynical geniuses who prey on investors in the form of etfs have come up with a way to bet against kathy wood herself it's called the tuttle capital short innovation etf its symbol is sarc s-a-r-k and it literally shorts whatever uh kathy goes along it's it it's frankly too cruel even for me but man i want to think of the sarc etf as the scotch that happened to my parents choice sark as in cuddysark yep you can buy some sarc and hedge your position if you're worried this correction will continue then stay the course in the stocks that are holding up and then you use this thing to bet against the grow stocks that are the center of the blast radius york now i don't want this to turn to some kind of like claymation death match like we saw a year ago today with gamestop where the longs literally set out to crush a bunch of short selling hedge funds when you're picking stocks please don't make it personal that said i need you to remember that what's going on here now the fed could be tougher than expected jay is not trying to bring down the ark he's not trying to sync it it's simply collateral damage from his fight to get inflation under control i've been in this business for 40 years and i can tell you that these growth stocks are the ones that get hit hardest in a tightening cycle so here's the bottom line now you know how to bet with pow if you think that jay pal wants to destroy the economy you pour the sark over the ark and you bet that they all drown and no one gets out alive let's take some costs john in pennsylvania john how you doing mr kramer couldn't be better man i feel like i had a few what's happening i was at home for three weeks getting over a hip replacement i had done um first thing i did was join the cnbc investing club yes yes and i'm understanding the new world we're living in here with investing well we try to make that 1020 meeting i mean i've got ceos watching the meeting it's just a lot of fun what's going on yeah so my question to you is in this new world um every day yeti is getting beat down it's getting down there where does it fit well i got to tell you as far as you said that because yeti was recommended yesterday by someone and it was the most beautiful recommendation so many good things happening there it's a really interesting idea i think that yeti may be the kind of stock that you can ride things out with but remember we want dividend we want return of capital and we want things made well they do make things all right now i mean hey if you think the fed wants to destroy the economy now you know what to do you pour the sark over the ark and you bet that the whole thing stinks no sinks oh man money tonight could mccormick add a dash of spice to your portfolio i'm checking in with the ceo then we have had an influx of new deals hitting the market but what you're rightfully being punished and which could be worth watching i'm digging in the latest inventory in the street and newport jumped four percent today after putting a better than expected quarter i'm digging into the numbers with the company's top prize so of course stay with don't miss a second of mad money follow at jim kramer on twitter have a question tweet cramer hashtag mad tweets send jim an email to mad money at cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com
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