저자: Cryptofluence · 외국인
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if you look at commodity prices the gold price for example it actually peaked in August of 2020 and it's at the lower end of a two-year range while copper has broken down oil is breaking down Lumber has crashed uh iron ore as well uh Freight rates out there are suggesting that the supply chains are loosening up quite significantly the rates are coming down so we've got deflation in the system and and the way I describe what's going on right now I was in uh in my early days in my career in the early 80s when volcker was taking a sledgehammer to inflation because it was embedded in the system after 15 years of profligate spending Vietnam War Great Society and then going off the gold exchange standard a sledgehammer that's what he needed that is what I believe chairman Powell thinks he needs and we just don't think that's true because we see so much deflation and one more thing we also see a massive inventory overhang around the world you've got European recession China in recession effectively and here in the United States retailers are pulging with inventories which will have to be cleared with discounts so we think we're going to see some major downside surprises in inflation during the next three to six months so the Ted is looking at the pce deflator which peaked in February at 5.3 percent it's down to 4.6 percent and we believe we've already seen some negative numbers uh nobody believes them we do and we believe we're going to see some more negative numbers during the next uh three to six months so I wouldn't be surprised to see it well down into the threes uh in the next three to six months if not into that two handle and I think if we get enough sequential declines that the FED will change its tune quite dramatically what we think profits are going to be under tremendous pressure and until some of these cost declines make it through and inventories are cleared now we do not think this will be anything like 0809 which I know many people fear we think it's much more of an inventory recession and a drag from the rest of the world Europe being crushed by Energy prices China being or readjusting to quote-unquote Common Prosperity so I think it'll be more of an inventory recession and you know there's been a lot of denial that we are in recession we think we are uh we think it's an inventory recession and that will be coming out next year whereas many people uh forecasters are saying we'll be going in next year so I I actually think the market will be looking up uh as as we're exiting this year tell me what you see coming in the coming six to 12 months and and how you want to be allocating Capital today well I think our strategy has been hurt very very much as have most growth strategies by the fears associated with inflation and higher interest rates and as I I mentioned we think that's going to turn around we see the growth coming out of these five platforms these are five Innovation platforms these are exponential growth trajectories and we've faced a lot of covid related comparison issues in stocks like Roku tele and so forth so there's been a lot of confusion on very short-term indicators in the market but the explosive growth is there it has happened and we think it's going to continue we see that in the global public Equity markets uh truly disruptive innovation which is all we focus on is priced at roughly eight trillion dollars in value in the markets today that number we believe is going to more than 200 trillion during the next uh during the next eight to ten years so it's going from less than 10 percent of the global public Equity Market to what we believe will be 60 and the reason we believe that it will move to that level is because there's going these platforms are going to disrupt the traditional World Order in a way like we have never seen before these are five platforms not not three and they involve 14 different Technologies so we do extensive research I think we do the best research if I might say because of our sole focus on it and we give that research away because we want people to understand how their lives are going to change and how their children's grandchildren lives are going to change and how important it is for all of us to get on the right side of change in terms of hedging what I just described that concentration strategy people would say oh well my goodness you're taking more risks no we're not we have scoring system and which naturally takes us towards higher scoring names during correction so it's a it's kind of a pruning of the portfolio and in terms of hedging we that's not what we do that's what asset allocators do that's what advisors do we are a slice of their portfolios and they will they will position depending on clients risk tolerance they will position us anywhere from two percent of their portfolios towards 10 percent and as I said I think in the broad-based benchmarks our strategies our stocks will end up at more than 60 percent so we are in very early days and that's why we encourage our investors as well to get on the right side of change it's been awfully painful and believe me I do feel it and we're completely committed we actually uh increased our own ownership of our firm in the middle of all of this that's how high our is and almost every employee participated in that
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