Fundstrat's Tom Lee remains bullish on markets

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결론: 시장은 여전히 강세이며 S&P500은 6월까지 4,400까지 갈 수 있다는 낙관론. 조정 국면 평가: 최근 한 달 주가 정체는 미국 코로나 확진자 감소 지연과 인도 발병, 유럽 봉쇄가 겹친 결과이며, 일부 섹터는 개별적으로 깊은 조정을 거쳤다. 이제 조정은 끝나가는 것으로 본다. 미국 경기 및 백신: 미국 백신 접종률 40% 도달 시점에 확진자가 크게 줄어들 조짐이 보이며(이스라엘 선례), 6월 경 미국 재개방 가시성이 높아져 주식이 another leg up을 할 것이라고 주장. 밸류에이션: 1982~1999년 17년간 시장이 두 차례 9년 구간에서 같은 복리 수익률을 보였듯, 경기 모멘텀 정점이 곧 주식 정점은 아니라는 입장. 현재도 유사한 셋업이라고 봄. 실적 및 섹터: 좋은 뉴스가 이미 주가에 많이 반영되지 않았다고 판단. 클리블랜드 클리프스 사례를 들며 운영 레버리지로 실적이 컨센서스를 크게 상회할 것이라 주장. 경기민감주는 2022년경 2019년 대비 100% 이상 높아질 수 있다고 봄. 리스크 언급: 10% 조정 우려 등 반대 의견이 있다는 점은 인정하나 과도한 디레버리징이 이미 진행되어 리스크가 제한적이라는 입장.

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01. i mentioned top of the show sort of our headline or umbrella debate is time to be cautious or time to be bullish and i said emphatically you are in the latter camp you remain bullish even in the face of as i said a number of people from minor to dwyer to krinsky to reader who say you know what i don't know it's either euphoric it's either overheated it's either frothy it's either going to be volatile it's either going to be turbulent and you say we could get to my 4 400 price target sooner than expected and there's a 50 chance we reach it before the summer that's right um scott you know i i heard all of the comments earlier in the show you know the stock market stalled really in the past month it kind of coincided with coveted cases in the us not improving and then of course the outbreak in india and the lockdowns in europe and if and many sectors went through deep individual corrections now it looks like u.s covet cases might be lagging down in a big way because we're hitting that 40 percent vaccine penetration which is which coincide with israel seeing a huge leg down in cases and i think it started two days ago in the u.s that means the june reopening the visibility on the u.s sort of coming out of this is much stronger and i think stocks are going to now have another leg up so i think the rolling correction is sort of running its course and yeah i think easily 4200 in the s p but maybe as much as 4 400 by june so i think we could have a real rejuvenation of the stock rally so calls of a 10 correction you've heard him on this network he probably read them elsewhere too you just think that's not going to happen uh i mean there's a lot of valid reasons to to think about that but there's been so much deleveraging and as you guys point out the interest rate environments really stabilized i don't agree with the idea economic momentum peaking is stock market peaking i mean for instance from 1982 to 99 that 17 years if you cut that exactly in half the equity market compounded at the same rate the first nine years and the second nine years and economic momentum i mean when did it peak it must have peaked at something you know in 1984.

02. so i mean you had 17 years of literally the same compounded returns i think that's a setup that we have today so i i think investors are correctly cautious because kovid really was stalling and rates were uncertain but there's been so much deleveraging and we've already seen like things like spax and hyper growth stocks correct i mean everything's corrected in at different times so i think we've we're done with the correction but how much of the good news is already in the market do you think even with this consolidation period albeit minor that we've gone through uh i don't think a lot of good news is priced in sky uh just to give an example uh you know a steel company cleveland cliffs reported this morning and the ceo is could barely contain his notion that even if you haircut where things stand today they're going to be full your numbers by a substantial margin there's a lot of operating leverage that'll take place this year because the top line environment was so restrictive for the past year it's now starting to open up at a time when companies are really lean i don't think most people have modeled the kind of rebound and even that will happen you know we if we just look at it at the sector level for the cyclicals they might be by 2022 more than a hundred percent higher than 2019 levels on using consensus revenue estimates but 2008 operating leverage so in other words if you just use an old playbook they're going to crush numbers for the next two years you