Jamie Dimon: China Is A Huge Threat | Taiwan | Chinese Economy & Consumption

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중국 가계소비 비중이 낮은 원인으로 국유기업 이익의 국가 귀속과 기업 저축 과다를 지목(Shu 연설 인용). 중국 내 외국 카드 결제 인프라 확대 규제 발표. 대만 리스크 대응 위해 다국적 기업들이 동남아 등 백업 본사 검토 중. 미국 CHIPS법에 따라 TSMC 애리조나 공장 지원(보조금 66억 달러, 대출 최대 50억 달러). Jamie Dimon은 공급망 중국 의존, 국가안보 핵심 소재, 불공정 경쟁(전기차·재생에너지·AI) 측면의 중국 위협을 강조.

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01. welcome to another episode of China update where I provide you with the most up-to-date political economic and geostrategic analysis on the world's number two economy my name is Tony let's jump in happy Friday everybody we begin with a space we've been following closely for some time now consumption and its role in the Chinese economy this week substack Outlet the Easter red spelled re e a d published a brilliant translation and Analysis of a recent speech from sual the chief Economist and assist president of Bank of China international leading the research department and sales and training department of the company he is also a professor at peing University in Beijing the entire speech is worth a read for those interested in this topic the East is read has provided an excellent summary of shu's points Shu argues that the significantly lower consumption to GDP ratio in China compared to the global average quote is the fundamental cause of the country's lackluster domestic demand and economic slowdown end quote he attributes the slow consumption level to unusually High savings rates with both Enterprise and household savings rates remaining notably elevated this is in STK contrast to other economies where the two rates typically exhibit a negative correlation Shu highlights the profoundly obstructed channel of income transfer from the corporate to the household sector as the primary reason behind the distinctive consumption pattern quote the extensive presence of state-owned Enterprises in China whose profits and dividends primarily flow to the state rather than households diminishes the wealth effect that might otherwise stimulate household consumption end quote nor is the highly concentrated ownership of many Chinese private Enterprises doing much to increase the wealth or consumption of The Wider population furthermore Shu points the absence of an efficient market mechanism again a result of the disconnect between the corporate and household sectors to balance the distribution of national income between consumption and investment quote this shortfall means the household sector is unable to influence corporate dividend policies resulting in excessive corporate savings and overinvestment end quote next up for the economy Beijing appears to be serious about addressing the payment issues foreign visitors have in the People's Republic of China part of wider efforts to have more people visit China for economic activity foreign investment and also to exert soft power this week a notice issued by the People's Bank of China the ministry of culture and tourism the state administration of Foreign Exchange and the national cultural heritage Administration required Scenic spot with 5A or 4A designations and hotels above three stars as well as other provincially and state designated tourism spots to accept foreign bank cards Regulators want to improve services for international visitors and make it easier for them to spend money after 3 years of the pandemic QR code payments have become so mainstream in China resulting in a significant reduction in the number of ATMs for cash withdrawals however Chinese Financial media Outlet isi reports that the roll out of POS machines that accept overseas cards has been slow due to concerns among foreign card payment networks a report from ping un Securities code limited last year found that local Merchants are also wary of adopting these devices due to the higher fees involved retailers with domestic payment systems are typically charged 0.6% of the value of transactions with reduced rates applicable to certain transactions in comparison foreign cards costs typically range from 2 to 3% of the transaction value quote which disincentivizes local Merchants from using systems that process payments made via foreign bank cards end quote this regulation announcement this week will force Chinese hotels with three star ratings or more and others to accept payments with foreign bank cards next up several large tomes manufacturers are considering setting up a second headquarters overseas to ensure that they can keep operating in the event of a Mainland attack on their country uk- based Financial Times in a report published this week writes that the plans quote highlight how Global efforts to secure Supply chains are forcing companies to play a vital role in manufacturing networks especially for Tech products to make excessive changes end quote rer Gore a partner and head of the family Office business at KPMG in Taiwan told the outlet quote we have clients who are looking into the planning or setting up of a second headquarters the groups are in manufacturing and currently looking for a location for a second headquarters in Southeast Asia just in case an emergency happens in Taiwan to give them an alternative command system abroad that they can immediately activate end quote although a PLC attack remains unlikely in the near term increased pressure from Beijing and Military intimidation tactics have led many foreign companies and consumers of Taiwanese groups to initiate some contingency planning an unnamed country head of a global consultancy in Taiwan reportedly told the financial times quote discussions about backup headquarters have started at the top of the largest groups you have to ask yourselves if a conflict forces us to cease operations in Taiwan for 6 months or a year can we survive you don't need invest relations here but you can't survive without Finance payroll and receivables end quote meanwhile the US plans to award Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing code $6.6 billion in Grants and as much as5 billion in loans to help the world's top chipmaker build factories in Arizona part of Washington's drive to boost domestic production of critical Technologies on Monday this week us Commerce Secretary Gina rundo announced a preliminary agreement which includes tsmc constructing a third Factory in Phoenix adding to two facilities in the state that are expected to begin production in 2025 and 2028 total the package will support more than 65 billion US dollars in Investments at the three plants by tsmc the world's leading chip maker romondo said the new fa will rely on next generation 2 nanometer processed technology expressing quote for the first time we will be making speaking at scale the most advanced semiconductor chips on the planet here in the United States of America by the way with American workers end quote Chinese Financial media aled tyon writes that tsmc's award marks another milestone in Biden's push to boost the US semiconductor industry with the 2022 chips and science act Intel Corp has already ined a preliminary agreement finally $20 billion in Grants and Loans while Samsung Electronics Co of South Korea is expected to receive a grant of more than6 billion if you're enjoying today's episode of China update don't forget to hit the like button liking sharing and subscribing it all helps for the channel and for anyone who can go that extra mile and help me keep China update financially sustainable patreon and by coffee links are in the description below this is a lot of work but all your support are all incredible sources of motivation so thank you so much everybody for the ongoing support next up Jamie Diamond Chief Executive Officer of DP Morgan Chase published his letter to shareholders in the 2023 annual report in a stunning development the American billionaire Banker made very Frank comments on China comments which we very rarely see from leading business people the points shouldn't sound too novel to regular viewers but it's notable that such a figure is making them to Washington policy makers and US businesses to end today's video we will quote Diamond's statements on China directly it is a valid point that the Western World both government and businesses essentially underestimated the growing strength and Potential Threat of China it's also true that China has been comprehensively and strategically focused on these economic issues all while we slept but let's not cry over spilled milk let's just fix it we missed the Potential Threat from the three Vantage points the first is company's over Reliance on China as the sole Link in their supply chain which can create vulnerabilities and reduces resiliency but to the extent this involves everyday items like clothes sneakers vaccine compounds and consumer goods this dependency is not as critical or complex and will eventually be sorted out the second is the most critical the US cannot rely on potential adversaries for materials essential to our national security think rare Earths 5G and semiconductors penicillin and materials critical to entral Pharmaceuticals among others we also cannot be sharing vital technologies that can enhance an adversaries military capabilities the United States should properly and narrowly Define these issues and then act unilaterally if necessary to fix them the third is also complex which is countering unfair competition or mercantilist behavior in critical Industries Think electric vehicles renewable energy and AI among others examples of this would be where a state any state uses Government powers Capital subsidies or other means to dominate critical Industries and deeply damag Dage the economic position of other nations weakening a country economically can render it a virtual vessel State reliant on potential adversaries for essential goods and services which also weakens it militarily we cannot seed our important resources and capabilities to potential adversaries here ends the direct quote and today's episode thank you so much everybody for watching have a good Friday and I will see you all tomorrow