저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준의 '회복 보장' 발언은 허상이며, 인플레이션 붕괴형 불황(인플레이션성 공황)으로 갈 가능성이 크다. 연준·파월 발언 비판: 파월은 60분 인터뷰에서 경제 회복을 보장한다고 했지만, 연준은 인플레이션 외에 실질 성장을 만들 힘이 없다고 주장. 2008년 서브프라임도 연준이 '통제 가능'이라 했으나 위기로 이어졌고, 지금의 '일시적 인플레이션' 주장도 같은 오류라고 지적. 성장·실업 전망: 파월이 2021년 GDP 성장률 6~7% 이상, 실업률 6%에서 4~5%로 하락을 언급한 것을 전하며, 실업률 6%는 노동시장 이탈자를 빼 실제 U6 기준 10% 이상이라고 비판. 인플레이션 구조: 세계화가 물가 상승을 억제해 왔으나, 그 효과는 제조업 해외 이전과 무역적자 확대에 따른 것이며 이 여력은 소진됐다고 주장. 해외 보유 미국채도 이미 충분하다고 봄. 임금·정부지원: 실업급여 등 정부 지원이 노동자 취업을 막아 임금 상승 압력이 커지고, 이것이 기업 비용과 소비자 물가 상승으로 이어진다고 주장. 결론적 경고: 이미 연준 대차대조표 확대로 역사적 수준의 통화 팽창이 진행 중이며, 주식·주택 자산 가격 상승은 체감되지만 생활비 상승(식품·의류·에너지·의료)이 본격화되면 큰 고통이 온다고 경고.
다듬은 글
jerome powell made another appearance on 60 minutes last night to reassure america that everything is great that the economy is in great shape thanks to the fed the federal reserve is on the job making sure that everything is good but no need to worry because the fed is on the job and i think powell finished off the interview with a guarantee and his guarantee was that the fed will support the economy for as long as it takes to complete the recovery so there you have it don't worry this recovery is guaranteed by chairman powell chair of the federal reserve itself so you can take that to the bank we've got a government guaranteed recovery because the fed will do everything it can to make sure we complete this recovery the problem is the fed doesn't actually have the power to do anything other than create inflation which of course is the one thing the federal reserve is assuring us is not a problem and it won't happen at least not above two percent but the idea that the fed can create economic growth can create prosperity when it boils down to it the only thing you can do is print money however you want to describe it that does not create prosperity what creates economic prosperity is savings and investment and the production that it allows so it's a free market and capitalism that can lead to prosperity and a true economic recovery the fed doesn't provide any of that all the fed can do is temporarily create the illusion of a recovery by creating inflation but eventually the illusion wears off and all that's left is the dark reality of stagnation and in fact worse depression which is where we're headed in fact i've been saying we're headed for an inflationary depression and that's exactly what is going to happen and again remember and i've been repeating this often but in the early stages of the 2008 financial crisis in fact before it became a crisis the federal reserve was reassuring everybody that the problems in subprime were contained and so we had nothing to worry about it was not going to spill over into the overall economy and powell made the same assurances to the nation again last night that we don't have to worry about inflation to the extent that we see a pickup it's transitory inflation is not going to stay above two percent for long in fact powell said that he wants to see inflation moderately above two percent for some time he didn't quite specify what subtime actually means he did say he just wants to make sure that inflation averages two percent and since it's been below two percent for a few years well obviously we need to be above two percent in order to create an average but pow is assuring everybody that there is nothing to worry about well inflation is every bit as transitory as subprime was contained the fed was wrong then and they are even more wrong now now one of the things that powell was specifically asked about was his forecast for gdp growth for 2021 and instead of basically coming up with his own forecast he kind of deferred to forecasts that he was reading in the private sector many of which are very self-serving because they're written by firms that have a vested interest in you know strong economy or at least pretending that there's a strong economy but he referenced forecasts of six to seven percent gdp growth for 2021 and in fact he indicated that the actual growth rate may be even higher than seven percent and as far as unemployment he said he expects it to fall from its current rate of about six percent now of course that excludes all the people who are out of the labor force that are not looking for work right the real unemployment rate as powell has even noted himself uh is above 10 again look at the u6 number which is north of 10 but on 60 minutes he only referenced the six percent number and ignored the more relevant higher number but powell said the forecast since he's reading and i guess that the fed agrees with sees unemployment dropping to between four and five percent from his current six percent level so a lot of people are going to get jobs the unemployment rate is going to come down and according to the guy who was interviewing he actually said hey it sounds like you're forecasting a boom and pal didn't use the word boom himself his reply was yes i'm forecasting very strong growth so he didn't say boom but cbs said boom and he didn't really say no no no it's not going to be a boom he just didn't use that word so we're gonna have an economic boom we're gonna have soaring growth we're gonna have falling unemployment but we're not gonna have any inflation right and of course one of the things that cbs never mentioned was all the money printing i mean they did talk about qe or mentioned qe but they didn't focus on the money printing they didn't focus on the budget deficits but you can't really have a discussion of inflation without bringing up those main points of big budget deficits getting monetized by the fed so there wasn't even a discussion about that so they simply talked about rising prices and didn't really discuss the factors that lead prices to go up so they just kind of said why aren't we going to have inflation and of course powell said well you know we have a new type of economy it's different this time we can have all this growth we can have low unemployment but we're not going to have the type of inflation that we've had in the past and he specifically referenced you know the 1960s and 1970s as examples that we're not going to follow because unlike the 60s and the 70s we're not going to have inflation in the 2020s because we've got this new economy and in fact when specifically asked about why right what pal said was that in this modern global economy and of course we've always had a global economy i mean maybe now it's more global than it was in the past but we've always had trade i mean going back to the birth of the republic uh we've been trading with other nations like we were trading with with the indian tribes which were considered to be their own nations but we've always been a trading society and even before america uh there was always world trade right it just maybe didn't happen as rapidly but we still had inflation but the points that powell was trying to make or made was that he thinks that this global competition is the reason that businesses can't raise prices he says you can't raise prices anymore because of global competition he also says that you can't raise wages i guess workers can't demand higher wages because their employers will just go overseas and hire somebody cheaper but the fact of the matter is that's not true i mean prices are going up wages are going up i mean certainly in nominal terms but one thing that pal maybe is confused on is that yes the way globalization has offset the impact of inflation meaning the expansion of money supply on consumer prices is in order to keep from raising their prices american businesses have moved more and more of their manufacturing to foreign countries where the production costs were lower so it was the increased reliance on foreign production that enabled u.s businesses to offset the price increases that otherwise would have resulted from the inflation that the federal reserve was creating but the result of that was huge trade deficits it was america moving from the world's biggest creditor nation to the world's biggest debtor and for a real reduction of wages for americans because a lot of those manufacturing jobs in order to keep a lid on prices were sent abroad and so the americans were left to do the lower paying service sector jobs but i think that process has pretty much worked its way out and therefore it is no longer going to be there the way it was in decades past in other words we're not going to have this get at a jail free card when it comes to the impact of inflation on prices because we're not going to see more manufacturing jobs or a lot more moved abroad because most of them have already moved abroad and the fact of the matter is our trading partners already have way more u.s treasuries than they want especially considering that they don't even have any yield anymore so i think our ability to export inflation is much smaller now than it was in the past and there's a lot more inflation that we need to export the amount of money that the fed is creating is far greater today than it has been in the past and so we have to be able to export even more dollars we have to run much bigger trade deficits in order to offset it now we are we do have record trade deficits but they're not going to be big enough because the world is not going to support this indefinitely in fact i think it's going to come to an end soon in fact i think it's already happening and we are going to see big price increases despite globalization and wage increases too because what is also going to be accelerating the pressure on wages is competition with the government because the government is offering such sweetheart deals to people who don't go to work that in order to get a worker to give up all those unemployment benefits businesses are going to have to pay much more to get those workers and as a result their customers are going to have to pay much more for the goods or services that those workers help produce or provide because it's going to cost businesses that much more money to get them on the job so if powell thinks that the lesson of the past decade or two is that it doesn't matter how much money we print we're never going to see increases in prices he's sorely mistaken and of course all of the discussion on 60 minutes about is there going to be inflation misses the point that we have massive inflation already i mean that's what's going on with the fed that's what's happening with the money supply the balance sheet this is unprecedented inflation so the real discussion is when will this inflation come back to bite americans in a way that really hurts now when it bites americans by making their stock portfolios go up or their house more valuable they don't actually mind that in fact many people like that because they think they're a lot richer the problem is when inflation causes your cost of living to go up when it makes food more expensive when it makes clothing when it makes energy when it makes health care and all these other things that people need that's when it's a big problem and we're about to experience that problem in spades you
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