저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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Grantham은 주식 시장에 대형 거품이 꺼지는 중이며 50% 폭락 가능성을 경고한다. 결론: 미국 주식 비중을 줄이고 저평가 해외·선별 우량주 및 현금 보유를 권한다. 거품 현황: 나스닥은 고점 대비 약 12%, S&P500은 약 7% 하락한 상태이며, 나스닥 종목의 약 40%가 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락했다. 투기적 기술주부터 먼저 꺾였고 이후 다른 종목으로 확산되었다고 설명한다. 폭락 전망: 낙관적 시나리오는 현재 대비 약 27% 하락, 최악은 50% 초과 하락이며 바닥은 내년 이후일 수 있다. 골드만삭스·BofA는 2023년 말 S&P500이 최근 종가 대비 약 2% 하락, 모건스탠리는 약 5% 하락을 예상한다고 소개한다. 자산 전반 거품: 주식뿐 아니라 국채·부동산·암호화폐까지 과대평가되어 있다고 본다. 미국 상업용 부동산은 금리 상승과 재택근무 영향으로 타격을 받고 있고, 미국 주택 가격은 모기지 금리 급등으로 하락 중이다. 실리콘밸리은행 파산을 예로 들었다. 경기침체와 이익률: 거품 붕괴 후 경기침체가 뒤따를 것이며 2023년 말 비교적 완만한 침체를 연준 이코노미스트들이 예상한다고 언급한다. 기업 이익률은 과거 평균보다 높은 30~35% 수준이어서 장기적으로 하락 압력이 있다고 본다. 독점 심화와 빅테크(FAANG) 집중도 지적한다. 비트코인: 실질적 쓰임이 부족하고 가치 저장 수단으로 신뢰하기 어렵다며 변동성이 매우 크다고 평가한다. 투자 조언: 미국 고평가 주식 비중을 줄이고 신흥국과 일부 저평가 선진국 주식을 찾을 것, 보유 시 재무가 탄탄한 고품질 주식 선택, 현금 비중 유지로 매수 기회 대비, FOMO 경계, 가치와 저렴함 중시. 인플레이션: 인플레이션이 일시적이라는 시장의 믿음이 바뀌면 PER이 급락할 수 있으며, 50% 폭락은 급격하기보다 장기간 점진적으로 일어날 수 있다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 미국 주식 전반 하락 및 장기 약세, 비트코인 부정적, 해외 가치주 선호.
다듬은 글
one of the world's most prominent fund managers is sounding the alarm on a looming crisis a Super Bubble meticulously inflating for over 10 years now teetering on the precipice of implosion Jeremy Grantham is the co-founder of GMO an institution that foretold the Japanese crash in 1989. the.com debacle in 2000 and the worldwide Financial cataclysm of 2008 grantham's warning carries weight as a sage Observer of market trends and economic shifts his Proclamation serves as a stark reminder of the fragile equilibrium urging vigilance and preparedness in the face of a potentially transformative rupture he's now warning about a potential crash in asset prices that resembles a previous event speculative technology stocks are positioned at the Forefront of this impending decline the signs of this downturn are already evident wall Street's Tech heavy NASDAQ has experienced a 12 percent decline from its peak in November while the broader S P 500 Index has retreated by almost 7 percent from its record closing High this could Mark the beginning of the bursting bubble where high risk stocks which tend to rise significantly more than the overall market during Good Times start to fall as the market climbs last year for instance even when the broader S P 500 Index surged by 25 percent many of the riskiest stocks from 2020 were already on a downward trajectory this downward Trend was initiated early last year impacting the most excessively speculative stocks first which were hit the hardest subsequently other stocks followed suit experiencing declines one after another now approximately 40 percent of all NASDAQ listed stocks are trading more than 50 percent below their previous highs before we dive deeper make sure to hit that like button and subscribe to this channel for more incredible life-changing content now let's move on such occurrences are indeed quite uncommon historical instances like 1929 1972 preceding a significant downturn and 2 000 before the tech crash are notable examples the process of a major bubble bursting seems to be in progress as evidenced by the substantial decline in value for many of the most speculative stocks with their values plummeting by at least 50 percent from their Peak the current state of the U.S market Bears a striking resemblance to the.com bubble and subsequent collapse however much like in 2000 it's not solely the speculative stocks that are excessively overpriced and vulnerable to a fall considering these factors it's improbable that the market won't experience a 50 decline from its peak especially the broad s p index it would be unusual if the speculative stocks didn't perform even worse than that slightly over a year has passed since the previous stock market crash leaving investors pondering the possibility of another downturn as the impact of fiscal stimulus diminishes economic momentum is slowing down leading to a noticeable decline in equities lingering concerns include labor shortages strain Supply chains and the transfer of inflation to Consumers creating an environment that should raise caution interestingly retail Traders appear to be the sole group enjoying positive results following the s p 500's peak in early 2022 U.S stocks have already decreased by approximately 15 percent due to central banks raising borrowing costs more substantial declines are anticipated shortly optimistically a decline of around 27 percent from present levels could be expected as suggested by Grantham however in the worst case scenario a plunge exceeding 50 percent is plausible the trough might not be reached until well into the following year notably analysts from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs predict that the S P 500 will conclude 2023 only around 2 percent lower than its recent closing value conversely Morgan Stanley envisions a decline nearing five percent the overvaluation of assets extended Beyond stocks encompassing government bonds real estate and cryptocurrencies do to the surge in Risky Investments fueled by cheap money this widespread optimism has the potential to lead to a particularly severe Reckoning an instance of this is the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank partially triggered by losses incurred on bond Holdings due to Rising interest rates and falling U.S government debt prices Grantham predicts that as the bubble loses air it will inevitably Usher in an economic downturn throughout history each period of excessive Market exuberance and overpriced bubbles has been succeeded by a recession the severity of these recessions varies they can be mild if all the right measures are taken and complications are avoided but they become severe if mistakes are made investors should prepare for unexpected developments the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank or the necessity for the Swiss government to intervene and execute an emergency Rescue of Credit Suisse where events that would have been difficult to predict the collapse of major bubbles places immense strain on the system comparable to pressure building behind a dam it's challenging to anticipate which part will give way the correction in the bond market might be nearing its conclusion yet stock valuations continue to significantly exceed any conventional long-term correlation with corporate performance strain within the financial system May escalate when the U.S economy slides into a recession and corporate profits start to decline Federal Reserve economists anticipate a relatively moderate recession by late 2023 due to the repercussions of the banking crisis even within this challenging context money making prospects will emerge however in the immediate term the Readjustment of asset prices to more reasonable levels will result in nearly everyone experiencing losses the unsettling resemblances between today's markets and the situations in 2000 and 2008 are becoming evident in 2000 a surge in high-tech stock prices was trailed by a staggering crash while 2008 saw a painful downturn in the U.S housing market that almost shattered the banking sector what adds to the concern is that this time both the stock and real estate markets are on the verge of bursting simultaneously a similar scenario unfolded in Japan during the early 1990s triggering a prolonged period of economic stagnation that continues to impact the world's third largest economy Japan went through nearly two decades of economic struggle coupled with a subsequent lackluster decade past attempts to deflate bubbles in both the stock and real estate market simultaneously have ominous implications concerns regarding the well-being of the U.S commercial real estate sector have intensified over the past few weeks the real estate industry heavily reliant on debt financing has been significantly impacted by the escalation of interest rates the rise of remote work has especially taken a toll on office spaces leaving the market in what Grantham described as ragged disarray the U.S housing market which achieved record high prices in 2022 is now experiencing a decline due to the surge in mortgage rates the good news for investors for investors a positive aspect exists amid the equity bubble in the U.S and the overpriced nature of the stock market on Wall Street Jeremy Grantham suggests that seeking undervalued stocks in developing markets along with some more affordable developed nations would be a wiser approach compared to maintaining an extensive holding of U.S equities if you decide to hold U.S stocks it's advisable to opt for high quality stocks with strong financial foundations this is particularly crucial since situations like these can potentially evolve into Financial crises as they have done before in essence just as you'd look for deals When shopping aim to identify stock Bargains rather than paying premium prices the emphasis should be on avoiding expensive markets and costly stocks investors should prioritize the concept of value and affordability based on what they receive search diligently for countries with lower valuations and within them identify the most economical stocks maintaining a portion of your portfolio as cash reserves is wise as it might lead to excellent buying chances most importantly overcome the fear of missing out and the overpowering desire to chase after profits especially during the concluding stages of major market bubbles also investors should exercise special caution when dealing with cryptocurrencies Bitcoin in particular lacks real utility and has been surpassed by a newer generation of more intelligent and efficient cryptocurrencies many of these however don't adhere to the traditional method of generating profits although a few do while the fundamental concept of cryptocurrencies Might endure indefinitely it's evident that much of their current value as a store of wealth is misleading it cannot genuinely be considered a Dependable store of value it's universally acknowledged that the volatility associated with cryptocurrencies is extremely high marrying the behavior of high-risk stocks with significant fluctuations in value if you find this video informative like And subscribe to this channel for more educational content let's continue the era of elevated corporate profits is coming to an end in the long term stock values will confront the influence of two factors that have historically propelled them upward one factor is higher inflation considering the inflation levels observed in the U.S since the middle of the previous year a significant stock sell-off should have already occurred the Assumption was that historically low interest rates would have to rise however the market seems to be dismissing inflation believing it's merely temporary even though indications suggest otherwise if this perception of inflation shifts within the market the result could be a ruthless decline in price earnings ratios Jeremy Grantham anticipates that the projected 50 percent crash in U.S share prices might occur gradually over an extended time frame as opposed to being a rapid and immediate sell-off this scenario could potentially lead to a prolonged struggle where the market gradually adapts to Rising inflation and interest rates another element seen as a potential drag on share prices is the potential decline in the current record share of economic output that goes toward company profits profit margins have been averaging 30 to 35 percent higher than they had been in the preceding 50 to 60 years several factors have contributed to this trend such as increased corporate influence lowered taxes on Capital related elements dividends interest rates Capital Gains and a notable level of regulatory capture by corporations consequently concentration within various Industries has risen and prominent companies like the fangs Facebook Amazon Netflix Google have attained a status akin to instant monopolies while this has favored profit generation it hasn't been as beneficial for overall economic growth this monopolistic Trend isn't limited to one economy but is observable globally such a situation might bolster profits but it's not as conducive to economic expansion and governments are beginning to express concerns about this monopolistic landscape Jeremy grantham's insights into the potential crash that could reshape our generation's financial landscape are both thought-provoking and cautionary the world is marked by Rising inflation shifting profit Dynamics and increasing monopolistic Trends grantham's analysis offers valuable foresight into the challenges that lie ahead by understanding the factors at play and heating grantham's observations we can better prepare ourselves for the evolving economic terrain and find Opportunities amid the changes if you found this video insightful don't forget to like subscribe and hit the notification Bell for more empowering content
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