저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장 반등은 과도한 낙관이며 인플레이션·연준 리스크가 남아 있어 무분별한 매수는 경계해야 한다. 시장 상황: 인플레이션, 금리 인상, 우크라이나 전쟁 등 악재가 많은데도 다우·나스닥이 반등해 설명이 어렵다고 진단. 연준 평가: 파월의 50bp 금리 인상 가능성 발언에 시장이 처음엔 부정적으로 반응했으나, 이후 파월이 경기 침체를 피하면서도 인플레이션을 잡을 균형을 보여준다는 평가로 반등. 다만 낙관론은 아직 정당화되지 않는다고 봄. 투자 전략: 인플레이션 수혜였던 철강·플라스틱·제지 기업은 가격 인상력이 약해질 수 있고, 경기 침체 시 강한 종목들도 재검토 필요. 헬스케어·제약도 하락. 저품질 종목: 최근 상장한 저품질 IPO·스팩 계열 주식은 경기 지표가 뜨거우면 다시 하락할 수 있으니 미리 정리하는 것이 낫다고 권고. 개별 종목: 듀폰은 저가에 매수했으나 단기 상승 여력이 줄었다며 청산 권고. 세일즈포스(CRM)는 장기 최애 종목이라 매도 반대, 매수 유지 입장. 나이키·발레안트 헬스 등은 후속 방송에서 다룰 예정. 출연자 전망: 시장을 움직이는 것은 연준과 인플레이션이며, 전쟁이 지속되고 인플레가 이어지는 한 기관 자금이 주식을 사도록 만드는 긴축 신호가 중요하다고 봄.
다듬은 글
that money welcome to craig america i'll be one of my friends just here's what the true bears the ones who hate the market never seem to get when push comes to shove a lot of people believe that things will go right and that's how you get a day like today where the dow king 25 points sb jumped 1.13 and the nasdaq just crushed it going up 1.95 let me say right up front the market shouldn't be going up we have rampant inflation sell sell rates flying higher sell sell the specter of companies missing estimates are behind the curve federal reserve sell sell they know nothing and a non-zero chance of nuclear war thanks to the unhinged leadership of vladimir putin so how the heck can we rally where did all the sellers go for two weeks we had sellers willing to go through buyers meaning they didn't care if they sold stock below what the buyers were willing to pay they just wanted out things arguably worse now than they were back then but the market's holding up better does that make any sense at all to you the answer is yes it does if and only if you suspend your rigor and just have hope now i will never endorse hope as an investment strategy but when you zoom out it's kind of an interesting mindset why okay because when i got into this business some 40 odd years ago the dow was at 1 000.
and now it's near 35 000. there are a lot of moments where the market went up even though it probably didn't deserve to given the inputs but then we found out the inputs were wrong or things broke a different way and the rally suddenly made sense shh don't tell the bears but you couldn't gain 34 000 points on the backs of false information and a too easy federal reserve so let's take two weeks ago versus today we know that every major inflationary input has gotten worse by the day and we've now become seemingly numb to the slaughter in ukraine that were helpless to stop because putin is crazy enough to go nuclear if the united states gets directly involved rather than mutually assured destruction or the mad doctrine he's embracing richard nixon's mad men theory where you act as crazy as possible scare your opponents into staying on the sidelines if things are worse than two weeks ago then why is there more hope well last week we had a fed meeting where jay powell made sure everyone knows that he's poised to raise interest rates rapidly because the economy is overheated the result one of the greatest rallies in years then yesterday powell once again talked about inflation saying he'd think about nothing nothing of a 50 basis point double rate hike at the next meeting if it would help tamp down inflation now initially the market took this statement negatively yesterday like power was saying he'd be willing to destroy the economy in order to save it 50 basis points here 50 basis points there pretty soon you're talking about real rate hikes that caused us to get hit yesterday but today upon further review hope wall street reached a different conclusion that a conclusion that was more like what happened last week when the market roared after powell's first rate hike see a week ago there were plenty of skeptics there were two camps those who believe that powell could easily throw us into recession if he isn't careful and those who believe that pal's a big softy who's simply too late to immediately stop inflation the latter camp has zero respect for pal the man i think you're dead wrong but i'm in jimmy cho mode right now so i won't bother castigating them i'll just take it out on some of my more hateful twitter followers later this evening now though there are a few there are fewer skeptics i think last week we saw jay pal who recognizes that things have really haven't gone his way we said that last night remember yesterday we saw jay pal who struck the perfect balance he won't throw us a recession but he'll still go to great lengths to stay about inflation he was forceful albeit flexible in other words wall street now is a lot more confidence in pals bonafide he says inflation fighter that means he's taking off the extremes though the companies that have seen their stocks soar because of price increases steels plastics papers well they better get used to a world where they'll have less pricing power can't constantly put through those price increases and the stocks that do well in recession i don't know if you saw them today maybe they're not as great buys as we thought the drugs assorted health cares they all took it on the chin this is a remarkable moment because it's not supposed to be this good there should be more people saying the pal will fail and he's a paper tiger there should equally be people who say that this economy can't handle the breaks but their silence is measured by the strong three to one advanced decline ratio is simply deafening how can people be so confident that pal won't crush the economy well i think it's daunting on many of the biggest of investors that this economy is so strong that it can handle a series of rate hikes because so much of the spending we're seeing is related to the great reopening and the normalization of remote work that finally drilled into their heads that said while i appreciate hope as a mindset i'm not as confident as a lot of the buyers who are paying up at the end of the day i suspect things simply aren't that rosy we are seeing a level of enthusiasm here that to me feels unjustified we shouldn't be going back to mentality where we like all stocks because so many of them will miss their numbers and solos will hit us with negative forecasts however it's clear many stocks that were stuck in a prolonged bear market have been sprung by powell's comments the former high flowers that have been obliterated since november by inflation fears have suddenly gotten the new lease on life but here's the problem tons of those stocks just aren't worth much regardless of whether pal steers us into a soft landing or hard landing we've been saturated with awful merchandise the greeds are the greedy men and women of wall street from garbage ipos to garbage space place and these virtual apple sources have weighed us down they are millstone around the market's neck and i think they'll go right back in the penalty box the moment we get more economic data that is hot if the numbers are scorching people realize palace to tighten more aggressively and this group will get dumped why not dump it before that happens if the numbers are bad people start wondering what any of these newly minted stocks are really worth why not get out ahead of that so let's recognize that this is a moment where wall street recognizes j-pal is ready to use all the tools at its disposal to slow down the economy giving us time to fix our supply chains we stock our inventories one last thought that i think many of you have if a company's doing really great what the heck does it matter about the fed why are you talking about the fed so much jim i sympathize with a few companies should be valued on their own mars same with strong sectors as you will hear later in the show but that's not always how it works there are periods extreme periods where the economy gets so out of whack that the stock market itself becomes a pariah asset class a source of funds for other asset classes so an individual company's marriage simply won't be reflected in its share price unless it catches a takeover bid given that the justice department and the ftc seemed pretty hostile mergers i wouldn't hold your breath waiting for an acquisition to save you so the bottom line right now we need to bow down to the fed and the forces of inflation anything that brings down inflation including tough statements from jay pal will make big institution money managers more likely to buy stocks rather than sell them for the moment that's what controls the stock market as long as the war goes on and the economy breeds inflation that soon few can afford i'm starting the day going with cortez in texas cortez cramer long time follower cortez in mckinney texas thank you i wanted to ask you a three-part question about the big company dupont that's been around forever right do you do you think they have the strategy to continue to deliver to our shareholders and what about the superb sales cortes this is a really tough problem i'll tell you why we bought the stock very very low for the chapel trust and we told cnbc's investing club when it went higher it's time to liquidate why because we just don't know how much more oomph there can be in that particular stock we do think ed brings doing a great job we think long term is fine but short term it is not the place we want to be how about oh let's stick with texas let's go to carson in texas carson oh yeah jim this is carson oh yeah make sure to say hi to david for me dave favorite i'm calling about yeah i love them buck on the street fabulous stock i'm calling about is crm salesforce got in last year around 280.
it's around 220 right now after being about 190 earlier in the month right do you think you can pull back given i tell the investing club that salesforce remains one of my absolute favorite uh companies there are various times where this stock has just been horrendous and those are tied like if you take a look at between 2015 2016 you would just feel this was the worst stock in the world and then benioff comes roaring back with a great set of numbers or terrific acquisition i would not sell sales for salesforce i told the investment club buy salesforce we need to bow down to the fed in the force of inflation right now that's what's working on man money tonight there is always a bull market somewhere so could there be one in the ag stocks i'm going to take a closer look at the space then why can't wall street get a handle on what to do with nike i'm going to give you my take and ballast health is preparing to split into three companies and i'm learning more about the deal with the ceo and why some big company doesn't go by one of the divisions stable cram
댓글 0