저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
구글(알파벳)은 애플 제미나이 도입 소식으로 주가가 상승했고, 시총 1.9조달러, PER 26배 수준이다. 검색광고 매출 잠식 우려는 있으나 유튜브·클라우드 등 성장 동력이 있다. 매출 5% 성장·자사주 매입 가정 시 연 8~13% 수익률을 기대할 수 있다고 봤다. 마이클 배리의 구글 매수도 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Tohle video je v češtině ani slovenštině ne, je v angličtině. Původní zadání mělo podobu „čeština/slovenština" a původní text je anglický, takže ho upravuji v jeho jazyce, jak jsem to dělal u ostatních přepisů.
Hello, welcome to The Investment Sprint channel, and today we will look at the most important segment of the holding company Alphabet, Google. Google shares jumped 5% last Monday after news that Apple wants to use Google's Gemini to deploy generative AI in its new iPhone. Since then the shares have added roughly another 2%.
If we look at the fundamentals, Google now has a market capitalization of 1.9 trillion US dollars, 24 billion in cash, 118 billion in investments and 13 billion in debt. This means the company's enterprise value is around 1.8 trillion US dollars, which currently ranks Google in a solid sixth place among the largest companies by market capitalization.
Google is a reliable company. With relatively stable sales growth, it reached 307 billion dollars in 2023, and net profit was almost 74 billion. The price-to-earnings ratio shows that Google's shares are valued relatively highly: at 26 times earnings, based on $5.85 of earnings per share.
The rumored Apple–Google partnership mentioned at the beginning of the video wouldn't be the first time. The original iPhone used Google Maps, and Google paid Apple $18 billion a year to be the default search engine in the Safari browser.
Apple has been quiet about the potential use of Google's AI, but if it came out, Gemini could be deployed on more than 2 billion devices, according to the New York Times. Gemini would essentially jump over GPT overnight. In terms of user numbers, that means Apple has to be more than confident that Google's AI model is good enough.
Google's initial AI launch in February didn't go according to plan. Gemini was accused of producing racially biased images, and the company had to disable the feature. More broadly, some investors worry that AI could erode Google's main source of revenue. The risk is that generative AI will create better alternatives to text-based search.
That could be a problem, because 57% of the company's revenue still comes from search-based ads. On the other hand, there is not much evidence yet that users are moving away from Google search: its sales are still growing continuously, and Google has many other ways to generate profit. YouTube and Google Cloud are huge businesses with many users. Another company in the Google family is Waymo, which deals with self-driving cars and certainly has great potential. In addition, a relatively large amount of free cash allows the company to regularly buy back an enormous number of shares.
Let's calculate the possible return on investment. If Google's sales grow by 5% per year for the next 5 years, with the same net margin as today of around 24%, the company would produce about 94 billion in net profit in year 5. Applying a multiple of 25, roughly the current P/E ratio, gives a valuation of approximately 2.35 trillion US dollars.
If the company buys back about 3% of its shares annually, the return on investment would be about 8% per year. If we keep everything else the same but assume 10% growth instead of 5%, which I don't think is unrealistic, the annual return would jump to 13%. It's also worth noting that Google already has nine products with more than a billion users each, which offers plenty of room for growth in sales and revenue.
This means Google shares can certainly move higher, and even at today's prices I would not be too afraid to jump into the company. However, this is only my personal opinion and not financial advice. I own several Google shares, both individually and through ETFs that include Google.
For more quick analysis and market news, check out my other videos on this channel.
The name Michael tells you something, and by now most of you will know him from the movie The Big Short, which was based on him. The film tells the story of a group of investors who bet against the US housing market before the 2008 financial crisis, at a time when everyone thought it would keep rising.
Burry still invests today and leads Scion Asset Management. In the fourth quarter of 2023, his fund announced two acquisitions that may surprise value-investing fans: Amazon and Alphabet, or Google. These stocks are usually avoided by value investors because of their high valuations, so why did Burry open a position in Google?
A bet on Google is not as expensive as, for example, Amazon. But during 2023 the company faced several negative narratives. At the beginning of 2023 Google traded at a P/E ratio of around 18, most likely because investors feared it was losing the AI race to newcomers such as OpenAI. As we said, this is already changing dramatically. Michael Burry and other investors, like me, expect Google to keep its dominant share of the digital advertising market and continue growing its revenues.
Let's learn from big investors, but don't copy them. It's a hundred times better to build a portfolio of stocks that YOU believe in, not stocks that others believe in. Thank you very much for watching, and have a great day.
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