저자: 미상 · 외국인
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멍거는 향후 10년 주식 실질수익률이 과거 10년보다 낮을 것이라고 본다. 주요 근거는 시장 과열과 대중의 무분별한 투자 열기다. 지난 10년간 주가가 5배 가까이 올라 요리사·청소부까지 투자에 몰리고 있으며, 1920년대 호황 후 1929년 폭락, 1959년에야 회복된 역사를 경고한다. 실질수익률 하락 요인으로 세금과 인플레이션을 든다. 트럼프 시기 법인세 35%→15% 인하와 달리 바이든 정부는 부유층·법인·상속세 인상을 추진해 세금 부담이 커질 것으로 본다. 인플레이션은 양적완화와 대규모 재정적자가 원인이다. 2020년 연준·ECB·BOJ 대차대조표가 약 8조 달러 늘어 2008년 위기 대응 때 8년 걸린 규모를 1년에 해냈고, 이는 '불장난'이라고 비판한다. 나스닥 버블 여부에 대해서는 버블 붕괴 시점은 아무도 모른다고 답한다. 애플·마이크로소프트·아마존 시총이 각각 2조·1.6조·1.5조 달러 수준으로 급성장했으나 기술 혁신에 의해 파괴될 위험도 있다고 지적한다. 투자 전략으로는 파괴적 혁신 기업과 파괴되기 어려운 철도·식품 같은 산업을 균형 있게 보유할 것을 제시한다. 버크셔의 BNSF 철도 투자가 예시다. 핵심 원칙은 자신의 능력 범위(circle of competence)를 아는 것, 안전마진 확보, 인내와 자기인식이다. 과신과 단기 수익 추구를 경계하며, 버핏식 접근을 모범으로 든다. 개별 종목 가격 목표나 특정 자산 방향에 대한 직접적 단기 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
one of the things that we all know about charlie munger is he's not afraid to express his opinion if he has something on his mind something that he wants to tell you he won't mince words he'll say it up front so he got asked recently what his thoughts were on the stock market returns over the next decade here's what he said you expect the next 10 years to have lower returns in the equity markets than the last 10.
it doesn't give us an idea why the answer is yes could you give us a hint as to why that might yes because so many people are in it and the frenzy is so great and the systems of management the reward systems are so foolish that that i don't think it's going to work at all i don't think i think the returns will go down yes in real terms the returns will be lower okay i want to try and explain that for those who don't fully understand what he's talking about the first thing that he mentions is the fact that everyone's looking to invest in the stock market so what's happened over the past decade in stocks we've seen unprecedented growth since the end of the last stock market crash 11 years ago the stock market is up over 400 aka over five times in price now what this does is it makes everyone flock into the market what you put your money in a decade ago and now you have five times the amount i want to do the same and then what happens is you get the cook the cleaner the sports coach they all want to put their money in the stock market and prices get higher and higher it's kind of similar as to what was going on in the 1920s in the market so the 1920s was known as the roaring 20s back then the ford model ts were being sold the economy was firing and everyone wanted to invest and they made a lot of money with this that was until 1929 came along the market was clearly overpriced people realized they didn't understand their investments and they sold out and it crashed it only recovered 30 years later in 1959 and that's the thing a lot of people who are currently in the stock market don't know a thing about market history about previous lost decades in the market or anything like that all they see is their neighbors and friends getting rich through investing so they want to join in on the party but as manga thinks there's only so long that the party can go on as much as we would like to believe you can't just keep making an infinite returns in the market eventually things have to simmer down and if you look at history you will see that you will see periods where the market went boom and you'll see periods just like from 1929 to 1959 where the market went nowhere the other thing i don't know if you picked it up was that manga said i think the returns will go down real returns will be lower so why did he specifically point out real returns in fact what i should probably ask you first is do you know what real returns are real return is what is earned on an investment after accounting for taxes and inflation real returns are lower than nominal returns which do not subtract taxes and inflation so manga has put a specific focus in that inflation and or taxes are probably going to be higher over the next decade let's start by looking at taxes unless you've been living under a rock i'm sure you guys know this we have a new president in 2021 his name is joe biden he has taken over from donald trump now trump was not a big fan of the old taxes in fact one of the major moves that he made when he came to power was to majorly cut taxes especially the corporate tax rate which he lowered from 35 percent to 15 biden is going to be doing the opposite raising taxes particularly on the wealthy on corporations and on estates aka higher taxes for investors and businesses so that's something that we're going to have to watch out for over the next decade higher taxes but arguably even more importance than this is inflation for those who don't know inflation is simply the rise in the prices of goods and services for example did your grandma ever tell you of how she used to buy a loaf of bread for 10 cents and now it's a rip-off it's three dollars why is that the case it's inflation the increase of prices so let's say you made a 10 return on the stock market next year if inflation was 10 you essentially made no money your real return was zero this is why inflation is so important now one of the biggest causes of inflation is printing money or we can put it in more complicated financial terms quantitative easing and right now we are seeing a lot of this going on in the usa this is what charlie munger said on the matter what do you think of the combinations of quantitative easing and large fiscal deficit and where are they going to lead us well there i've got a very simple answer and that is it's one of the most interesting questions anybody could ask and we're in very uncharted waters we have nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing we're doing now for a very extended period without some trouble and i i think we're we're very near the edge of playing with fire if you look at the federal reserve the european central bank and the bank of japan they've collectively expanded their balance sheets by around 8 trillion dollars in 2020 it took them almost 8 years to do the same following the collapse of the global financial markets in 2008 2020 they did it in just one year so right now they're doing something that they've never done before printing money at what charlie munger calls astounding rates the problem with all of this printing of money is that it leads to inflation because the more money that is artificially pumped into the system the more demand that there is for products and inevitably at some point in time they will go up in price that's simple economics and this is one thing that we all need to watch out for as investors because they affect our real return that we will get in the market over the next decade another thing that will affect our return is the current prices of stocks if stocks are priced too high obviously our returns will be lower so the question becomes is the market in a bubble here's what manga said on the matter is it nasdaq in a bubble well i i nobody knows when bubbles are going to blow up just because it's nasdaq doesn't mean it'll have another run like this one very quickly again this has been unbelievable again there's never been anything quite like it if you stop to think about it think what apple is worth compared to john d rockefeller's old oil empire it's been the most dramatic thing that's almost ever happened in the entire world history of finance i don't know if you guys remember but in 2018 there was this big fuss about who would be the first company to be worth one trillion dollars it was out of apple microsoft and amazon apple was the company that hit that milestone first but fast forward to today apple is worth over two trillion dollars microsoft 1.6 trillion amazon 1.5 trillion so these companies have just been increasing in growth at a humongous rate of knots and a lot of people are saying these companies are way overpriced because you're paying trillions of dollars for a company that may be disrupted again a new technology may take over how do we balance our investments if we know that some companies will die through disruption do we invest in the disruptive companies do we invest in the companies that will struggle to be disrupted what's the style we should adopt well some people try to get on the cutting edge of change so they're destroying other people instead of being betrayed themselves and those are the googles and the apples and so forth other people like me do some of that joining things like apple and and in some ways we just try and avoid big change that we think is likely to hurt us and so berkshire for instance owns the burlington northern railroad you can hardly think of a more old-fashioned business than a railroad business but who in hell is ever going to create another trunk railroad so it's a very good asset for us so and we've made that success not by conquering change but by avoiding it now burlington northern itself has been quite clever at adapting technology to their railroad imagine the good luck of being able to take an existing railroad and double deck all the trains and raise the heights of the tunnels a little and so forth and all of a sudden you've got twice the capacity at very little incremental cost which is what that railroad has done so that is a favorite everybody uses new technology but it really helps to have a position that almost can't be taken away by technology how else are you going to carry goods from the port of los angeles to chicago except on our railroad essentially you try to both you look at those companies those industries that over the next decade or two they will be the disruptors they will change the way the world works and inevitably make investors a lot of money but two you also want those companies who can't be disruptive or will at least struggle to be disrupted the likes of railroad or food sectors these are industries that we've had for hundreds of years in the past and over the next hundred years we will have them as well so that's smart balanced investing not like modern day investing where everyone seems to overestimate their ability in the stock market what a bull market does is it gets everyone to believe that they're all geniuses look at the huge returns i've made over the past year and they go and boast about it to their friends the investors that will do the best over the next decade will be those who can look at things objectively they know their limitations and they will invest within those limitations i spent a lifetime trying to avoid my own mental biases hey i rub myself i rub my own nose and my own mistakes b i try and keep it simple and fundamental as much as i can and i i like the engineering concept of a margin of safety i i'm a very blocking and tackling kind of a thinker i just try and avoid being stupid so i have a way of handling a lot of problems i put them on what i call my too hard pile and i just leave them there i'm not trying to succeed in my too hard pile what i would say is the single most important thing if you want to avoid a lot of stupid errors is knowing where you're competent and where you aren't knowing the edge of your own competency and that's very hard to do because the human mind naturally tries to make you think you're way smarter than you are but partly it's temperament partly it's deferred gratification you got to be willing to wait and it's a weird good investing requires a weird combination of patience and aggression and not many people have it it also has to it requires a big amount of self-awareness and how much you know and how much you don't know you have to know the edge of your own competency and a lot of brilliant people are no good at knowing the edge of their own competency they think they're way smarter than they are and of course that that's dangerous and causes trouble if you go in the youtube comments if you go on cnbc if you go on investing forums they all think they know everything just go talk to jim cramer i think those that are going to succeed over the next decade will be the ones who are humble and what they know and what they don't know those like warren buffett who stick to their circle of competence they understand the risks of market prices understand inflation and invest wisely around what they do know let's see how many people will still be investing in 10 years i hope you guys who are watching this video will be
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