Howard Marks: The 2 Risks That Destroy Most Portfolios

요약 보기

투자의 두 가지 위험(손실 위험과 기회 상실 위험)을 균형 있게 봐야 한다는 주장. 위험 회피가 아닌 위험 통제가 핵심이며, 배당은 수익의 하한선 역할을 하고 Buffett/Graham식 안전마진으로 매수가를 낮추면 비대칭 기회를 만들 수 있다. 가격이 위험을 결정한다는 Marks의 견해를 인용. 큰 손실 회피가 장기 상위 성과의 핵심이라는 General Mills 연금기금 사례 소개(14년간 상위 4퍼센타일). 구체적 종목·자산 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. We all want the same thing in an investment and that's one that goes up every single year and never drops in value. But Howard Marx has spent decades telling his client that that's impossible. So if you're going to be an investor, you kind of have to accept a hard truth. And that is that you can either maximize your gains, you can minimize your losses, but you can't do both at the same time.

02. So Howard Marx talks a lot about risk and the psychology of risk and he points out that we really face two different risks as investors and investing is about balancing them. So one is the risk of losing money. You know the stock price might crash, the business might go bust, maybe you invest in a fraud like Enron.

03. But the second risk is the risk of missing opportunity. And that's if you're too cautious about the first risk, then you might not make enough money or earn high enough returns to meet your long-term goals. So, we really need to balance these. And we have to take some type of risk. And a lot of charts you'll see risk versus return drawn as this straight line.

04. But what Howard Mark says is that that's not really how it is. So the lower risk investment that you go for, you still have a distribution of returns. It looks kind of like a, you know, normal bell curve turned sideways. And the size of that bell is narrow. And the further out you go, the wider the possibility of returns.

05. They might be very high, they might be very low, but there's no guarantee that by taking more risk, you're going to get more returns. That brings us to an important point which is risk avoidance versus risk control. So if you avoid doing anything where the outcome's uncertain in the end usually you avoid all returns as well.

06. And that's not going to work for investment. So really what we need to do is risk control. And this is the intelligent bearing of risk for profits. Means not taking risks that are more than you can live with or that you're not being wellrewarded to take. Now, there's a couple ways that you can think about risk control.

07. And at compounding dividends, um, we use a couple. So, one is just the dividend paid out by the company. You know, that's cash straight out of the company's cash flows. Um, stock prices can fluctuate, but those stable dividends kind of create a floor of our total return. The other thing you consider is that margin of safety idea that comes from Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham.

08. And that means that we're paying a price that's lower than the actual value of the company. That value comes from the the company's fundamentals, cash flows, that kind of thing. And Howard Mark says that the price you pay really does determine the risk. So if we do some risk control, we take the right amount of risk and intelligently control it, we can create an asymmetric opportunity where it shifts the probability of success up.

09. This looks very similar to the first picture, but if you notice, the downside is smaller than the upside. And this is really what we're trying to do. And you know, to kind of put a point on it, Howard Marks tells a story where he had dinner with the head of General Mills pension fund. And this guy had run the fund for 14 years.

10. And over that time, his return had never been above the 27th percentile of fund returns or below the 47th. But in the 14 years overall, that put that fund in the fourth percentile. So that kind of points out that the best way to get above average long-term performance is to avoid disasters. And one of my favorite things that Howard Marx says is that if we avoid the losers, the winners end up taking care of themselves.

11. So that's it for today. Just kind of wanted to point out this idea that there's really two different kinds of risk and you have to think about which one you want to take. Um, hope you like this video. If you do, give it a thumbs up. If you've got any thoughts, love to hear it. Leave it in the comments.

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