Jeremy Grantham: The Super Bubble Bursting Has Begun, But This Is How You Can Turn To Millionaire

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결론: 그랜섬은 주식 시장의 '슈퍼 버블'이 아직 꺼지지 않았으며, 2021년 버블의 디플레이션 과정이 진행 중이고 2024년까지 이어질 수 있는 침체와 주가 하락을 경고한다. 버블 진단: 현재 미국 증시는 과대평가된 주식 가치와 정책 기대가 결합된 위험한 상태이며, 1929년 블랙 써스데이, 2000년 닷컴 버블 붕괴와 유사한 조건이라고 본다. 침체 전망: 이익 감소, 이익률 하락, 경기 침체가 함께 올 경우 2023년에는 침체가 시작되지 않을 수 있지만 2024년 초까지 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 주가 하락 전망: S&P500의 추세선은 약 2500 수준이며, 대형 버블은 추세선 아래로 크게 내려간 뒤 오랫동안 머무는 경향이 있다고 주장한다. 연준이 2000년처럼 개입하더라도 추세선까지의 하락을 막기 어렵다고 본다. 과거 S&P500은 50% 하락했다. 경제 지표 우려: 3조 3천억 달러 규모의 미국 부채, 높은 금리, 지속 불가능한 수준의 높은 수익률 기대가 투자 수익을 위협하고 조정 위험을 키운다고 지적한다. 부동산 및 모기지: 주택 공급 부족으로 임대료와 주택 가격 부담이 커졌고, 대공황급 주택 가치 하락 외에는 주택 시장 붕괴 사례가 드물지만 현재 주거 부담이 악화되고 있다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬은 단기 반등보다 하락 국면의 지속과 깊은 침체 가능성을 강조하며, 투자자에게 전략적 자산배분과 하락기 기회 포착을 권한다.

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01. now let's get to a big warning from a big bear investor Jeremy Grantham says the stocks Super Bubble that he warned about previously has yet to pop the GMO co-founder sees more trouble ahead due to what he calls a dangerous mix of overvalued equity approach and preent calls on market bubbles draws parallels between the current market conditions and historical crashes such as black Thursday in 1929 when $4 billion was wiped off the market in a single day and the burst of the com bubble in 2000 both of which led to significant market downturns and in 2021 we witnessed a 10% hit leaving many investors on edge and here the US Stock Market is once again bumping up against alltime highs and this has grant them warning that the market is dangerously overvalued you were well known in the investment world for uh saying that sometimes there are bubbles and Bubbles should be avoided do you think we're in a major bubble now at right now in the United States and do you think that uh the tech bubble has burst sufficiently so so that the tech Bubble Burst is over I think we are descending from the 2021 bubble which was one of the great Bubbles and this should be normally the deflationary per period the deflating period uh which is a function of uh will the earnings uh decline will profit margins decline will the economy go into recession and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock prices so the recession that you're predicting is probably not going to happen in 2023 but maybe it may start in 2023 so what does all of this mean for investors how can you not only survive but thrive in the face of a potential market crash well Jeremy Grantham offers a unique perspective buying assets to survive and get rich in a crash Anthem strategy in involves strategic asset allocation and a Keen Eye for opportunities during Market downturns in this video we will explore his insights and explore practical steps that you can take to protect and grow your wealth amidst economic uncertainties I I suspect that they will once again Dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline the trend line being slightly generous is 2500 and most of the great bubbles the super bubbles go below Trend and stay there for quite a while uh in the Greenspan era that tendency stopped in 2000 yes the NASDAQ came down 82% which was fairly brutal Amazon came down 92 but the Federal Reserve braced to the rescue so loudly and strongly that they stopped the decline in the S&P at trend line it only declined 50% 50% is a hell of a big decline but it was only enough to get it back then to Trend this time trend is at most 2500 and I would expect even if the Federal Reserve tries to do the same it will be hard to prevent the market from declining Jeremy Grantham recently issued a caution AR warning about investing in the US Stock Market he expressed concerns that if certain challenges arise the S&P 500 AIA stock market index could potentially experience a significant drop of over 50% Jeremy grantham's cautionary stance on the US Stock Market particularly the S&P 500 revolves around several economic indicators firstly the Colossal US debt of $33 trillion raises concerns about the country's economic stability high levels of debt can potentially hinder economic growth and impact investor confidence secondly Grantham highlights elevated interest rates in the US an increase in interest rates can lead to higher borrowing costs for businesses potentially squeezing their profits and causing a ripple effect in the stock market the mention of unsustainably high yield levels suggest that grantom is wary of investment returns being too optimistic or unsustainable this could imply that current market expectations for returns may not be realistic signaling a risk of Market correction grantham's apprehensions extend to the real estate and mortgage sectors the US housing market has faced various challenges with the Great Depression of 208 being the only instance resulting in a significant drop in home values the housing shortage in the US has led to a heightened demand surfacing the number of available properties for purchase your rent as M gares have increased and housing affordability has decreased more people are comp