저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
강세장이 여러 차례 하락 공포를 이겨냈다고 주장. 2021년 IPO·SPAC 실패, 바이오 부진 등 개별 손실은 인정하나 시장 전체는 10월 저점 이후 붕괴 없이 상승. 연준 금리 급등에도 경기침체 우려는 과장이며 은행 실적(웰스파고·씨티·JPM·찰스슈왑)은 양호하다고 평가. 시장은 긍정 지표를 비관적으로만 해석한다고 비판.
다듬은 글
We start off with the tough Nasdaq selloff, right? And that quickly bled over to the larger averages almost instantly. I'm not kidding. Within 15 minutes of the opening, we heard that the bull lost legs. That's right. And here comes the big unwind as large cap tech starts rolling over. We are then told, of course, that the multi-month rally was bogus all along.
Just a short squeeze because the Fed's going to crush us again the next time it tightens. We were told the market was about to get its comeuppance. Yet it didn't. As it goes on, much to the chagrin of the chattering classes, the We had a brawling Dow finishing up 100 points. S&P gains 0.33% and Nasdaq, yep, up 0.28%.
You know it looked real ugly in the morning. I got to tell you. I actually I'm getting sick of the daily bull obituaries. And I once wrote obituaries for Lennon. It's almost like these critics think the stock market is one giant bull fight. I don't know if you've ever been to one, but the bull fair is very bad at the end.
Look, I know it seems crazy that the Fed could raise interest rates so rapidly, yet we we haven't had a truly horrific decline in stocks. I mean, a year ago we had 0.5% Fed funds rate. Now it's around 5%. That's an insane move. The conventional wisdom says we should have been obliterated by this. The entire market should have been destroyed by it.
And for the most of last year, I mean, that was the story. Not since October, though. Ever since we put in a bottom last October, we simply haven't had that kind of total annihilation you would have expect. In fact, it's been the opposite. Every time we have a minor selloff, new sectors go bullish, not bearish.
It's as if the bull's been crushing the matador constantly, not the other way around. Yet the matador dusts himself off and gets right back in the ring the next day, acting like he'll win no matter what. Sure, you can point to the individual battles that were lost by the bull, and there have been some very difficult battles.
I mean, you know, for instance, there were really 400 IPOs launched in 2021, many of which were disasters, just roadkill. Lots of these stocks collapsed, especially the recently christened household names. Warby Parker, Allbirds, Warby Parker, Sweetgreen. They crushed you. Then there were these SPACs.
That was a curious class of rip-offs, right? Which were an abomination. According to Renaissance Capital, about half of the post-SPACs, the money pools that became operating companies in the last couple of years, are now trading below two bucks. That is a shameful, disgusting, vicious loss. And it tended to hurt the least prepared or most easily bamboozled.
I'd argue that there was never a SPAC bull market in the first place, just some weird animal that should never even been allowed in the ring. So many of the hopeful new cloud software companies that came public with great ambitions, they're now in shambles. Something that shocked the venture capital community to the point where they killed their favorite Any tech company that didn't pivot from a focus on revenue growth to a focus on actual earnings has been kicked to the curb.
They laid you to waste. How about the decapitation of biotech stocks? I can't even talk about most of them because they're just too small to mention on air, with some rare exceptions like Prometheus Biosciences, which has now made you a fortune thanks to a gigantic takeover bid from Merck. More on that later.
But still, those losses didn't kill the bull. Most important, the return you're now getting for doing nothing with your money has exploded higher. I just learned that I can get a 4.15% interest rate if I open an Apple savings account to go with my Apple card. That's much better than the yield on most stocks.
Who needs the roller coaster nightmare of the market when you can get such a great return from cash, correct? I mean, isn't that bearish? Yet it hasn't been able to stop the bull, either. I'm pretty confident tomorrow will be no different. The matador bears will come out and they'll be stampeded by the bulls again.
But the commentators will tell you to keep betting on the bull fighter, not the bull itself. We've had to endure the drumbeat that we're only a day away from a collapse how many times? Come on. That the selling in some big cap stocks means we're at the beginning of a monster decline. The one we've all been waiting for, fearful of.
The one that's been a forewarning by the inversion of the yield curve. How many times have you heard that? Well, short rates are higher than the long rates. Admittedly, a very bad sign. Yeah, as it has been since October. So we have to ask ourselves, why does this negative rhetoric have such a grip on us?
Why do the bears seem to have such gravitas every single time, even though they've been wrong for six straight months? Because of the R word, that's why. Recession. You just can't defeat their prognosis, no matter what happens. The bears won't let the facts get in the way of a real negative story. Which brings me to the what really drives me nuts about this discourse.
Every single commentator who is interviewed, almost every, okay, in any form is asked in this following way. Not about companies, but what the Fed will do. They don't even know what companies are. Then no matter what the answer, the next question relates to a recession. If the expert say the Fed's going to stay in place, they're then asked, is that because we're going to a recession already?
If the expert says the Fed will hit us with another quarter point rate hike, they're asked, won't that cause a recession? If they're really bearish and say rates will stay higher for longer, then they're asked immediately, how deep will the recession be? And that is a litany. It's what keeps people out of this market, causing them to miss out on some moves in the upside, like a Prometheus.
Like a lot of the biotech, like a lot of the techs today that were down badly in the middle of the day. Never mind that rates have gone from near zero to 5% in a little over a year. It still hasn't been enough to kill this economy or the stock market since October. Now, I was hoping things might be different after Friday when three major banks, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and JPMorgan, all reported excellent quarters and showed no degradation of any major lending unit.
Commercial real estate, said to be the next housing crisis. Actually seems pretty darn good. Auto loans, home loans, commercial loans, all much better than you would have expected. If you didn't know better, you'd think we're in a normal, consistent expansion with some clouds here and there, but nothing that more nothing worse.
Hey, today I thought a guy came in very worried, Charles Schwab, huge broker, big bank inside, would be a disaster with money pouring out of every orifice to the point where the Fed might need to put them on life support. No, just the opposite. Schwab had a pretty good quarter. Sure, they paused their buyback, but I liked the number.
Certainly nothing that could explain the hideous decline in stocks since the mini banking crisis got rolling. Somehow, whatever positive number we get is turned into a negative. A strong Empire State Manufacturing Survey this morning was regarded as another arrow in the quiver of the bear. A decline in bad housing loans this evening, literally fewer defaults, gets dismissed as a foolish prelude to more weakness.
It doesn't matter what we see in the data or the earnings. It's always viewed through a bearish prism because we're always shadow boxing with the recession that might never even come. I would prefer a different narrative. Something like this. The Fed's engineering a slower economy where inflation's coming down faster than the fall off in economic activity.
We're getting decent numbers without a lot of layoffs or defaults, but some prices are going down for a bunch of categories and others are getting softer. Why isn't that the storyline? I've been in this racket. I've been in the journalism racket and I've been in the stock market racket for a long time.
Let me tell you why. Because it's boring. You're chasing eyeballs. If you're trying to get people to read your paper, the word recession makes for a much better headline. Bottom line, get ready for the next set of positive numbers to be ignored. Ready yourself for the absence of positive from tomorrow's big bank numbers, even as I think they're going to be pretty darn good.
That's just how this nascent bull markets work since it slayed the bea Twitter. Have a question? Tweet Cramer #MadTweet.
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