저자: AfonsoSantos · 외국인
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Peter Lynch의 투자 원칙(아는 기업 투자, 펀더멘털 분석, 기업 분류, 소형 성장주 중시, PEG·Lynch 점수 활용)을 소개하고, 이를 활용해 S&P500 평균 11%보다 높은 수익을 노릴 수 있다고 주장. 영상은 XTB 및 유료 커뮤니티 S Club Plus를 홍보하며, Chevron을 Lynch 기준 유망 종목으로 제시.
다듬은 글
Peter Lind is one of the most successful investors of all time, with decades of experience and dozens of published books. All this recognition and authority came from the period when he managed a Gallen Fund. From 1977 to 1990, it achieved an average return of 29% per year, higher than any benchmark index, with a consistency never before seen in the market.
In today's video, I'm going to teach you how to invest like Peter Linsch in practice, and how, with his strategy and investment principles, you'll be able to significantly increase your returns from the common 11% per year, which is the average for the S&P 500, to that 29% per year. But pay close attention, because we can only achieve this, or at least try to, if we know what Peter Leits' big secret is.
We'll reveal it at the end of the video, so stay tuned. If you're interested, don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel. Here we bring you content related to finance and investments in an innovative way, like no one else does in Portugal. That being said, welcome to the best video available on YouTube in Portuguese about Peter Lint.
Peter Lynch was born in 1944 and lost his father at a young age. Therefore, as you can imagine, he didn't have an easy childhood. To help support his family, he started working at a very young age. He delivered newspapers, mowed lawns, did whatever needed to be done. It was during his adolescence, while he was working at a golf course, that his life began to fall into place.
While carrying golf clubs for Boston's wealthiest men , he often overheard conversations about business, money, and investments. And to be honest, we can say that he became curious. Later he managed to get into college and in 1969 he joined Fidelity Investments as an analyst. Later, in 1977, they gave him the keys to a gall.
At the time, it was a completely unknown fund that only had $18 million under management, which is very little in the world of financial markets . The truth is that when he retired 13 years later, the fund had over $14 billion under management and an impressive average annual return of 29.2%. In other words, if you had invested €10,000 with him at the beginning of the fund, you would have managed to raise €280,000 when he left.
But what exactly made Peter Lynch so different? Contrary to what many might think, he was not even close to being a mathematical genius who spent days and days reading Fé's reports. His secret was different: investing in simple businesses that practically everyone can understand, restaurants, supermarkets, and even brands that his wife consumed.
He even used to say: "If you can't explain what the company does to a 10-year-old, you probably shouldn't invest in it." I truly believed that an individual investor had advantages that even professionals couldn't achieve. Time, patience, and the ability to observe the real world attentively. At age 46, at the peak of his career, he decided to retire.
He wanted to spend more time with his family, but even so, he is still remembered today as one of the greatest investors in history and is studied by the biggest names in the market. This was just one of the principles that we can and should learn from Peter Lynch. Let's talk about all of them in detail.
We have now seen what Peter Links' first investment principle is . We should only invest in what we know, in companies that are part of our daily lives. Something that seems super simple, but that actually goes unnoticed by most investors. If I work in a particular sector, I'll know things and details about the companies in that sector that even the best analysts won't know.
I will gain practical knowledge, I will know who the competitors are, and I will also have a general idea of what the employees of that company think about it. All of this makes a huge difference when we're going to do a good analysis. A company's fundamentals and numbers alone are not enough to determine whether or not it is a good investment.
The best example of this is XP, a Brazilian brokerage firm listed on the American stock exchange. Those who only look at the company's numbers think it's a great opportunity. We're talking about something truly surreal. The company's profits keep rising while the price keeps falling. Now, anyone even slightly familiar with the industry knows why this is happening, since the company has been involved in several scandals in recent years, where it is constantly accused of selling bad financial products to its clients to make money from commissions.
I myself have invested in this company and I remain very surprised that they still haven't resolved the problem. At the time I bought some shares at 25 each and when I realized my mistake I sold them at 20. Today they are trading at 1. This finally leads us to Peter Lynch's second principle: always do a good fundamental analysis of all companies, both at the time of purchase and several times during the year as the company's results are released.
When we buy a stock, we're not buying paper or something intangible; we're investing and becoming small owners of a real company. In other words, at the very least, we need to analyze the profits, revenues, debt, growth, and competitive advantages of the company in question. You can do this in several ways.
One of them is indicators. They already give us a basic idea of the company's financial situation in a fairly simple way. We'll see this later in this video, which is why it's so important that you stay until the end. Now we need to move on to Peter Linds' third investment principle : company classification.
Linds classified all the companies he analyzed into six different categories, each with its own strengths and investment objectives. We have slow growers, which are stable companies with very low or zero growth, such as large banks, insurance companies, and telecommunications companies that have been in the market for many years and usually pay good dividends.
Some good examples are Royal Bank, CBC, which is currently in my portfolio, or even Verizon. At the next level we have the Stalwards, large companies, but which continue to grow quite well, between 10 and 12% per year. Here, companies still tend to pay good dividends, but less than the previous ones, since they need part of the profits to reinvest in the company, as once again the goal is to make it grow by at least 10-12% per year.
Some examples of companies that fall into this category are Pulcorp, Domino's Pizza, or even Visa. Next come the fast growers, companies that experience strong growth of between 20 and 30% per year. In the vast majority of cases, let's forget about dividends, because companies need all the money and then some to grow the business.
Robin Hood Markets and Sofá are two examples of companies that fit into this category. Now come the three remaining categories, which, unlike the previous ones, do not separate companies by their life cycle, which is what happens in the previous categories. Yes, I will separate them by characteristics and/or their current financial situation .
We have cyclical companies that depend on the economy, such as commodities, travel companies, cars, commercial aviation, oil, steel; these are all examples of companies that fall into this category, like Chevron, Exon Mobile, or even Ambridge. We also have companies in turnaround situations, that is, companies that are in crisis but have the potential and a very solid plan to get out of it anyway.
The best example we can give of a company in this situation right now is Nike, which is going through a very difficult restructuring period after a sharp drop in its share price and profits. And last but not least, we have Asset Places, companies that have hidden assets, such as land, patents, licenses, etc.
An example that immediately comes to mind when I think of companies with these characteristics is that, even in poorly valued land, they have more money than the company's current market value . And this case is very curious because, being a company linked to the paper sector, it belongs to two of these groups created by Peter Lynch: the Commodies group, since its main business is paper, and the Jet Place group, for the reason we have just seen.
And be aware, because we have several cases like this in the market, you just have to look. We then move on to Peter Lynch's fourth investment principle. The greatest opportunities are never found in the largest and most well-known companies on the market. According to him, we should avoid, as much as possible, those companies that are trendy and in which everyone invests.
This is because, even if this or these companies are good, they will already be properly priced as such, due to the reputation they have gained among investors. What we are looking for are those companies that truly represent great opportunities that are off the radar, outside the media, the big investment firms, and even the internet these days .
In other words, those trendy companies that everyone is talking about are worth taking a chance on, according to Peter Lynch, at least if you want to or are looking to achieve high returns with them. Choosing sectors like fashion, such as artificial intelligence today, is also a mistake, according to this investor.
The trick here is to find companies that aren't popular, in sectors that aren't popular either. I've already covered this topic in more depth in a dedicated video, so I'll leave the link in the description so you can watch it when you're finished here . This way you will be able to further enhance your learning with the criteria of this great investor.
In short, we need to strive for differentiation as much as possible . Things like having a strong brand, a dominant market position, patents, and the ability to scale the business without also scaling costs. These are all indispensable things in these companies that Peter Lynch calls great opportunities.
We then arrive at Peter Linds' fifth and final investment principle, aside, of course, from his big secret which we'll only see at the end of the video: the formula for choosing and evaluating companies in practice. Yes, Peter Lynch developed a mathematical formula to help us understand when a company may or may not represent a great opportunity.
This formula begins with an indicator that you've most likely heard of, but never in this way. The pack ratio, which is the relationship between the P/E ratio (price to earnings) and the company's profit growth. Imagine we have two identical companies, but one has a net worth of 15 and the other 10.
Theoretically, we might assume that the one with a net worth of 10 is cheaper, meaning it could represent a great opportunity. But now let's say that the first company's profits are growing at an average of 100% per year, while the second company's profits are growing at only 10%. The first company that happens to be the most expensive at first glance may not be that expensive after all .
Perhaps it could even be a great opportunity. In short, if a peg ratel was below one, Peter Linds would pay attention. But be aware that this is not a golden rule, it's just a kind of first filter. And it is precisely here that we enter the next step, which I like to call the Lynch score. To confirm the peg ratio results, Lynch analyzed several other important indicators, which we also use in the S Club Plus stock analysis table.
But what exactly is included in this score? Simple things, but they make all the difference. Consistent profits. The company needs to be growing steadily, not 100% in one year and 0% the next. Low debt. It's not worth having a company that's growing. She is completely indebted, up to her neck in debt, and dependent on the banks.
Good margins are important because the higher the margins, the greater the company's ability to scale and survive financial crises. And lastly, reinvestment capacity. Companies need to know how to manage their own money in order to grow. Here, unlike pegato, where generally speaking we look for values below one, we tend to value lind scores above one, that is, the company's peg ratal should be less than one and the lind score greater than one.
Simple and effective. But now, the most important question: how can you access all these numbers and analyze them clearly? This is where our fundamental stock analysis chart comes in, doing all this work for you. At the moment the table looks like this. We are on version 3.0, as it is updated regularly, and as you can see you have access to dozens and dozens of indicators, in addition to those of the major investors, of course.
In this video we're going to focus specifically on Peter Lynch. If you have any questions about him, you can read a short biography of him by clicking on it above. The indicators are all explained, and so are the companies . Just click on it and you'll find the note here. You can read all the summaries quite easily.
In this case, what Peter Linds is looking for, we can analyze, for example, if Chevron is a company with a positive operating profit keigar. In other words, at this moment Chevron has a very good operating profit load. I don't even know if this number is correct or not, but we can look here at the net profit ratio , a rather appealing number, which shows net profit per share and, in quotation marks, as is the case with net debt to EBITDA, which is currently healthy at 0.4, and debt to equity , also super healthy, below 20%.
And here's a trickle of liquid, which is also within the normal range. Nothing too alarming. Another interesting aspect to analyze would be the profitability of the company in question. Here we analyze Roy, ROA, and Roy. Specifically, what we want to analyze here are Peter Lynch's metrics. And we see that at this moment Chevron has a super low, super healthy peg ratio , something that all investors are looking for.
Furthermore, it also has a very positive Lindt score of 2.91% at the moment, which is currently higher than all other companies in the energy sector, and also a pack ratio superior to all of them. In other words, we may be facing an opportunity here. If you eventually join S Club Plus and the company you want to analyze isn't listed in this table, just ask us in the chat and it will be added in less than 24 hours .
To access this and many other benefits, all you have to do is join S Club Plus. You'll find the link in the description with all the details and everything you'll need. In this case, according to Peter Lynch's basic criteria and initial filter, the most interesting company to analyze would be Chevron.
After this selection and filtering of the company, we have to move on to the investment. In this case, we'll do the same through XTB, which is currently the largest broker in Portugal and a long-time partner of this channel. We're talking about a company regulated by the CMVM (Portuguese Securities Market Commission) and the only one with offices in Portugal and customer support in Portuguese, and the icing on the cake is that you can start investing with them today with zero commissions.
And most importantly for me, you are the rightful owner of your shares, meaning that in the unlikely event of the company going bankrupt, you will be able to transfer your assets to another financial institution of your choice. To start investing with XTB, it's super easy, you just have to open the application and search for the asset in question.
In this case, we'll look for Chevron, which was the company we were analyzing. We select the stock, the amount of money we want to invest, or the positions we want to buy—one or more stocks. In my case, I always opt for this system, since I like to acquire entire positions. Next, all we have to do is click on buy.
And that's it, we've made our first investment. If you liked what you heard and think XTB is a good option to start investing, you can create an account or install the application using the first link in the description or in the pinned comment. As a bonus, if you use the code Afonso in capital letters when registering, you can get one month of ICE Plus completely free.
Now we've arrived at the part everyone's been waiting for all along. What is the big secret that allowed Peter Lindos to achieve such high average returns? Well, we can divide this secret into two parts: the part about not losing money isn't exactly a secret, but it 's still worth mentioning; and the part about making much more money through those super high average returns , which I believe is what brought most of you here .
Starting then with the first part, which is by far the least interesting, but nonetheless super important, the mistakes that Peter Linds tried his best to avoid. We'll talk about them very briefly. First, we sold assets too early. We must always look at things with a long-term perspective. Secondly, don't believe all the bogus macroeconomic forecasts.
These predictions from so-called experts change daily. That's why you shouldn't base your financial decisions solely and exclusively on them. The best example we can give to illustrate this case is what has been happening to Trump and the United States in recent weeks. When they announced the tariffs, the markets melted down and everyone started saying that we had the next big reaction coming.
Two days later, the stock market recovered everything again because the events were postponed. The market always overreacts, so take advantage of that and invest heavily during these stupid dips. Be very careful about extreme diversification as well . If you try to invest in stocks, bonds, pe-to-crypto, ETFs, gold, alternatives, all at the same time, you'll end up not investing well in anything.
Focus on a few, but good things, and make sure you master them well. Last but not least, be careful with long-term vision, since many people say they have it, but in reality they don't. According to Peter Lynch, you shouldn't invest in anything without a time horizon of more than 20 years. Nobody beats the market with consistency, so go with the flow and let time do its work.
Now, finally, we've arrived at what everyone wants to know. What was the real secret that allowed Peter Linds to have such a high average return over so many years? Very simple, tenbaggers. The name is strange, but the concept is quite simple. A tenbagger is a company that has the potential to multiply its value by 10.
You bought it for €1 and sold it for €10. You bought €10,000 and exited with €100. These were the companies that brought the most money into Peter Lynch's pockets and allowed him to consistently achieve such absurd returns. In fact, he even reserved an exclusive portion of his portfolio for them. These magical companies are rarely found on newspaper front pages, in news headlines, or among the most-viewed videos on YouTube, as we explained earlier.
Tenbagers are born in small, unknown companies with great potential. These could be companies that are growing rapidly in a less-than-sexy sector, or even brands that no one is betting on, but which are conquering their niche. Logically, because of this nature, they also carry a higher risk than most companies listed on the stock exchange.
But the big advantage here is that, according to Peter Lins, we don't necessarily have to get all the tenbagers right. You only need to get one or two winners right to make up for a number of others that you missed. Let's assume we decide to invest in five companies with these characteristics: €20,000 in each, totaling €100,000 in initial investment.
Five years later, four went bankrupt, but one of them succeeded and multiplied its value tenfold. In other words, the initial €20,000 invested in it became €200,000. double the money you initially invested in the five. And this is assuming only one of them works. If two companies were to succeed each other, that value would already be 400,000.
Now, be very careful once again , because according to Peter Lynch, these companies should never make up a significant portion of your portfolio. Just a small part that, when applied correctly, will make all the difference in the long run. So, do you agree with Peter Lind's investment principles ? Answer me in the comments.
I'd really like to know your opinion on this. And while we're at it, tell me who your favorite investor is. If the feedback on this video is positive, we will bring more content of this kind, but with other investors. It all depends on you, so you know what to do. If you enjoyed the video, don't forget to like it and subscribe to the channel.
All the important links mentioned throughout the video are below in the description. One of them, of course, is S Club, currently the largest investor community in Portugal, with over 4,000 members. If you want to stay with me, click on the video that's appearing on the screen now. I'm sure you'll love it.
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