저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
2024년 초 첫 거래일 하락(나스닥 -1.63%)은 섹터 로테이션의 일부이며 일시적이라는 주장. 경기 민감주·은행·산업재 선호, 빅테크(매그니피센트 세븐)와 고평가 소프트웨어는 차익 실현 대상으로 봄. 연준 금리 전망에 매몰되지 말고 S&P500 대비 적정 밸류 종목을 보유하라고 조언. 특정 종목으로 모더나·On Holdings 긍정적 언급, 치폴레는 급등 후 일부 익절 권고.
다듬은 글
crazy America. I'm not here to make friends. I'm just trying to help you make a little money. My job is not only to entertain, but also to educate. Let's consider everything in context. Call me at 1-800-743-CBC. Tweet me —Jim Kramer. So, the first day of the year: the Dow rose 26 points, the S&P fell 0.57%, and the Nasdaq collapsed 1.63%.
Part of this is what I call sector rotation. And while it may be difficult, perhaps even brutal, for some stocks, I think it's temporary. This is what usually happens after such strong growth as in 2023. Today reminded me a lot of the anomalous first days of the year that I have seen many times in my career.
Especially this year, 1997. We were at Disney World. The children were walking. They were very small, and we were going to go on the "It's a Small World" attraction for the fourth time . I stood at the only phone booth, competing with parents and children who wanted to make urgent calls, and I was in a state of complete panic, screaming at the traders at my hedge fund about the events of the first day.
Oh, cyclical companies. They were taking off: Armco Steel, Bethlehem Steel, Reynolds Metals, Phelps Dodge—they were growing wildly. And I was stuck waiting for the boat to come so we could sit down and sing. This is a world of laughter, a world of tears. This is a world of hopes and a world of fears, and I'm left without a single cyclical stock in the damn portfolio.
I missed everything. Unlike that attraction, this was a real show, the show of a lifetime, and I didn't get a single role in it. Just like today, when snacks—Kellanova, Pop-Tarts Bowl, where dreams come true . Cereals, General Mills , health products, pharmaceutical stocks, J&J, forget about TW cases, and Merck—they're all at their peak.
See you later. This time I was at the top of the New York Stock Exchange and again I missed everything. The performance of a lifetime. Oh, at least my trust fund owned the reliable Proctor and Gamble Corporation. Now, in 1997, it wasn't long before this whole cyclical stock movement collapsed. That first-day move was doomed once we started getting results for some of those weak quarters.
We got the numbers that made the whole movement turn around, and even more. Hey, look. I'm not saying that food and pharmaceutical stocks have definitely peaked . But I know that the first days of the year are about nothing . You just know that some believe that the rapid growth of the G7 cannot continue, at least not for now.
I actually agree and want to buy undervalued pharmaceutical and food stocks. Not very. Welcome to the beginning of the year, friends, when hope dies last for the likes of Pfizer and Moderna. It's time for oil companies to take center stage. And this is the moment when anything can happen. Maybe the end of Fed rate hikes means "buy stocks." Maybe an election year with an incumbent president means "buy stocks." Perhaps the market momentum, which has been rising for nine consecutive weeks, means "buy stocks." Everything means " buy stocks." And that's all I hear from everyone I encounter, talk to, or sit with.
Although in the end we are talking about the results of individual companies, people, because sooner or later this also affects stock prices . Sure, stocks can change direction at the beginning of the year, but they rarely stay that way unless nothing else happens other than a change in the calendar date.
So, what should happen? According to my crystal ball, people will lock in profits on the best of the best, the ones that have defined this market. Yes, the "magnificent seven" and friends, as well as highly rated software companies. I think investors will use this cash to invest in companies that haven't received any attention for years.
And here I mean banks, partly medicines, partly food. Why not? They have become too cheap compared to the main market winners. Mega-cap stocks that soared when Wall Street worried about a recession because something like generative AI could outperform the broader market. This certainly helped the economy.
But if the economy truly recovers, you have many more sectors to choose from than just expensive technology. Here's what I think will happen. Now, what else? The main question of 2024, as in 2023, unfortunately, is what will the Fed do? People are now betting on everything, just like last year, when those bets were consistently wrong.
The narrative will be simple. If the Fed cuts rates too much, three or four times, it means they are afraid of a recession. If not enough, it means they will trigger a recession. Somehow, all roads lead to recession. Listen, this is exactly the absurdity that will determine the events of most of the year, because portfolio managers manage large capitals, relying almost entirely on the actions of the Fed or its possible steps.
I don't want you to be one of those people. Oh, they will trade in response to every move in the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields . Don't be one of those people. They will trade based on every Fed statement, every comment from Jay Powell, every press conference. They will trade based on every word anyone from the Fed says: the governors, the presidents, whoever .
Don't be one of those people. As for me, I say: to hell with these traders. I run a charitable foundation that is currently dedicated to a specific idea. There are companies that will feel better than others in an environment where the Fed is no longer tightening policy. And historically, these are not the stocks that took off today.
History says that when the Fed stops tightening, there is a sense of relief that allows all stocks to rise, especially industrials . At the beginning of the year, there is a massive redistribution of assets : people want to lock in profits from winners and buy stocks that have fallen in price . This usually lasts until the next quarter's results come out, and then, after a reassessment, they go back to what worked in December , often at lower prices.
They are returning to these stocks at lower levels because they are not sure whether there will be a recession or not. And last year's big winners are the stocks you buy when you're just not sure. "Magic Seven". We expect the bubbles in enterprise AI software to burst. But once these stocks fall to reasonable levels compared to traditional cyclical companies, they will start being bought again.
However, this will only happen after a difficult transition period, when the crowd becomes disillusioned with Powell and the rest of the Fed leadership. And I think we'll be facing this in just a few days. What should you do? I think you need to have your own worldview. It's faith in what will actually happen, instead of getting caught up in endless debates about the Fed's next move.
We now have an economy that is growing with some strength, and inflation is gradually decreasing . And that should allow us to pay reasonable price multiples for the shares. In this scenario, Wall Street pays more for banks and industrials, while paying less for the "magic seven" and the enterprise software sector.
I like stocks of personal computer manufacturers that haven't yet grown as an extension of AI. I also like semiconductors within them, but that's a smaller universe of tech stocks that were successful in 2023. What about pharmacology? Pharmaceutical stocks often do poorly in election years. No, thank you.
Retail trade. They seem to finally be getting a handle on shoplifting and showing better profitability, but Amazon is looming. Oil is really complicated because we produce so much of the commodity in this country that it's hard for prices to rise and stay up. Ultimately, you need to find stocks that you are comfortable with because you believe in the companies behind them and what the management can achieve .
As I tell the members of the CNBC Investing Club every day, where I made some very big moves today: I think you'll be rewarded if you stick with stocks that are reasonably valued, meaning not much more expensive than the S&P 500 average on a price-to- earnings basis. I know, this is a very banal way.
Expensive stocks fall, while cheap ones rise. Then they meet in the middle, and the deck is shuffled, if you ignore the endless fluctuations of the Fed. But the main conclusion is that this is how stocks can show good movement. Not as big as last year, but still a good profit. I think it's much better than what you get from cash.
So wait patiently for the sale I'm expecting, and then buy. Tyler from California. Tyler. Hello, "Big Blue" from California. How are you , Jim? I'm fine, Tyler. It's nice to talk to you. What is happening? OK. So, I bought this stock just above $80 on the 21st, and an inverted head and shoulders pattern formed on the 22nd.
So I started buying more, and today the stock price crossed the 200-day moving average. I would like to know what you think about Moderna. OK. Late last year, I thought Moderna was just too cheap. I've said it many times , and I believe in Stefan Bansel, I just can't believe it. Stocks are finally getting their due.
Maybe we're finally far enough away from the " Covid" hangover for people to see what I see: this is a company with revolutionary technology. Joe from Indiana. Joe. Mr. Kramer, the ayatollah of rock and roll, the duke of Wall Street. Sir, you've been talking a lot about parabolic stocks, and I think I've caught one by the horns.
Help: Chipotle. Oho. Um, Chipotle stock just skyrocketed. I wouldn't call it a parabolic movement, considering the price fluctuated between, say, $1,800, $2,000, and $2,200 for a long time. But if you think this is a parabolic movement, then I don't. But you should cut back a little bit , because it was an incredible success, and I'm against those who say not to take profits.
I like to record profits. Let's move on to Sam from Pennsylvania. Sam, Jim, I have something really exciting for you tonight. Okay, I'm listening. It's not often that we see such an obvious trend as the one we're currently seeing with OnRunning. The company is doing just fantastic. I'm a runner myself and I have to say their shoes are better than Nike.
And it's not just me who thinks so. All my college friends who run say so. These shoes are a real find. I look at their sales. I see a growth of 74% in 2022. Uh, the valuation seems too high to me, but this could be the next Lululemon. And I'm curious what you think. Uh , you know what? I also got a pair for the holidays .
I was simply delighted. Other people at the table got them too , and I believe in On Holdings. Sometimes I feel like I'm alone in my thoughts, but then Sam from Pennsylvania shows up and says he agrees with me—On Holdings could be a big success. Although Nike still has a big influence on consumers. Let's move on to Joe from New Jersey.
Joe, hello, Mr. Kramer , thank you for answering my call. On a day like today, I'm glad to be diversified so I don't suffer big losses. I like it. I really like it. What is happening? Yes. Is Kraft Heinz worth buying with a moderate P/E ratio and high dividends ? Oh, uh, you know, listen, this promotion was 30.
Now it's 42, uh, that's the maximum. It is at level 38. It gives a 4% return. There is no significant growth there. I have to say no. I don't want to buy this stock. There are other options with better growth, and those are the ones I want to buy. So, everyone has their own prediction for how this year will go in the market, but I think the best way to ensure high returns is to find stocks that you believe in and that are adequately valued relative to the S&P 500.
You don't buy anything too expensive, especially after the growth we saw in 2023. Reasonable, ordinary, that's what I feel. " Money Tonight" is the first trading day of the year. So I look back at the top five Dow stocks of 2023 to get a sense of what the new year might bring. Then looking at the winners is just as important as analyzing the losers.
You won't miss my thoughts on Dow outsiders. And is it time to prepare for a pullback after the rally in late 2023? I'll go off the charts with the legendary Larry Williams to find out. So . Email Jim at ? Go to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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