저자: StockMoe채널진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏의 레나(Lennar) 지분 확대를 근거로 주택건설주 추종을 권하지만, 영상은 특정 자산의 명확한 1~3개월 방향 예측을 제시하지 않고 홍보 중심으로 흐른다. 버핏 관련: 버크셔가 레나 지분 약 12%(2,900만 주, 약 24.5억 달러)를 보유했다고 주장하며, 10% 초과로 공시 의무가 강화돼 매수가 실시간에 가까이 보일 것이라 언급. 시장 동향: 전일 나스닥 -2.6%, S&P500 +2.3%, 반도체 지수 -6.7%, 10년물 금리 4.96%로 17bp 하락, 브렌트유 113달러로 4% 상승이라고 설명. AI 투자 우려가 원인이라는 진단. 주택시장: 30년 모기지 금리 7.3~7.4%, 소득 대비 주거비 30% 초과, 신규주택 재고 8.5개월, 중간가격 5.8% 하락, 레나의 인센티브 비중 매출 12%. 레나 관련 공매도 리포트: Hunter Brook이 레나와 계열사 Melrose의 수요 왜곡 의혹을 제기, 레나 CEO가 Melrose 의결권 약 43% 보유, Melrose 매출의 72%가 레나 관련. 진행자는 주장이 입증되지 않았다고 언급. AI 관련: 중국산 AI가 저비용으로 유사 성능을 낼 수 있다며 미국 AI 기업 밸류에이션에 우려 제기. 알파벳 -3.15% 등 빅테크 하락 언급. 버크셔 현금: 3,600억 달러 규모 현금·국채를 보유해 리스크를 예고하는 것으로 해석. 홍보: WeBull 제휴 링크(무료 주식 조각 12주), Cal-Shi 제휴, 유료 디스코드 아카데미 가입을 여러 차례 권유.
다듬은 글
Old Warren Buffett may be sitting in Nebraska enjoying life, but you know he's not done conquering this market yet, and I'm sure many are listening to him . People always say, " Oh, he's retired." He is everything. He is like that. He is what he is. Really? Is he really everything? You have billions of dollars and a company you founded.
Can you ever really stop? Or, for goodness sake, you let everyone see the new CEO and they pretend you don't exist. I don't think it's like you know. So, Warren Buffett does what he does, and I'll tell you what. What do you hear? You hear that housing developers are being crushed. You hear all sorts of things, don't you ?
But has Warren Buffett started something? When you hear about the threats, the costs, the money being gone and everything being so bad, it's almost Warren Buffett-esque. It's Warren Buffett when he says, "When everyone is afraid, you should be greedy." And that's exactly what he is now— greedy. Warren Buffett currently owns 12% of the construction company's shares.
Look at this. Incredible success. His name has been appearing in the documents personally since mid- September. Another 7.5 million shares of Lennar were purchased, bringing the stake to 29 million shares worth $2.45 billion. Wait, people. I'm leaving . I'm leaving. Wait here. I need to get my heart working.
2.45 billion. Let me look in the sofa and see if I can find it. Do you guys have that kind of money lying around ? I mean, if you were to rummage through the couch right now, would you find anything? I remember I could find some cash in the couch. I usually dug there to buy a honey bun. Do you guys remember Tasty Cake honey buns?
I was going there and trying to figure out if I could get a couple of dollars on them. I needed 50 cents for a muffin, and another 75 cents for orange juice, or a little over a dollar, and I could buy a muffin and juice—it was a great snack in those days. But we're going to—we're going to take a look .
I say today, but yesterday the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. Lennar closed up 8.6%. What? But that's enough for you. Are you serious? Does Buffett know anything? Oh my God. There was no sale today. Yesterday, I have to say, it wasn't a sale. It was a rotation, and 2.6 percent flew into the abyss. The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and everyone knows it.
S&P shares rose 2.3%. What? Well, the balanced index has outperformed the capitalized one the most since July 2024 . In other words, the stocks that lifted the S&P were themselves dragging it down. The 10- year bond yield fell 17 basis points to 4.96%. This is the largest increase in 2 years. Brent crude oil at $113, up 4% after drone strike on Saudi oil field.
Dude, Meta is one of the big winners lately. Remember, I added it to my portfolio, the growth was over 20%, and now it's minus 7%. The chip index fell by 6.7%, and Core Wheat fell by 10.1%. And all this because of concerns about how much companies are spending on AI. How are they going to pay for it ?
I know I'm giving away my $20 a month. I don't think that covers billions and billions, if not tens, twenties, fifties, hundreds, and sometimes even two hundred billion. They spend money like drunken sailors. How to return such huge sums? I mean, I don't know about you, but my bills keep going up and everything is getting more and more expensive.
From fuel and insurance to regular food. This is just some kind of madness . Like if you agree with me. Let me know where you're looking from. We have something serious to talk about. First of all, if you're not already in the academy, boom, I just tore it up this week . This is your chance to join, we have different levels for those who want to learn.
Come on, guys. You want to learn, we have big things ahead of us. And for those who want to earn money, there is a regular level. Here you get access to me and everything else . This is the highest level. Use this link below, I have some. I am working with WeBull right now. They give you 12 free fractional shares.
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Let's talk about the good stuff, and then I have Cal-Shi. They give you 50 bucks for trading 25 or more through my link. All three are great opportunities. Link below. Good. Now let's get back to business. So what do we have? Warren Buffett is doing what Warren Buffett does— just making money. That's what he does.
Five of the six stocks rose on a day when the Nasdaq fell 2.6%. Keep in mind, these are Buffett's bets. Of course? I've already talked about Lennar. 8.69%. D.R. Horton, 6.1 6.25%. Macy’s, 3.16. Delta Air Lines, 2.05. New York Times, 0.81. My briefcase was bleeding yesterday. And what happened to old Buffett?
It didn't bleed. He defeated everyone. Alphabet 3.15. That's it . The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are doing their thing. They fell by 1.2 and 2.6%. Alphabet Google, my god . This is one of my favorites. Fell to 3.15. Uh, Berkshire owned 12% of Lennar. They continue to do what they are supposed to do. Crossing the 10% mark is what makes it visible.
Above that limit, they must report every purchase within two business days, rather than once a quarter, so we can see the purchase in real time. And we don't have to wait until mid-November for Warren Buffett to be named in these documents as the controlling shareholder, even though he disclaims ownership beyond his own economic interest.
So, we'll find out within two days when they go to market and buy. When Berkshire Hathaway clicks the hook and starts buying, we know. Retail investors don't need to live in the shadows and beg for small things. We see what the big players are doing and can make a decision. Do we want to join them? Do we want to go with them?
You know, it's like when you were a child, when someone pulls you on a blanket. I don't know. I do n't know. You decide. Er, 29 million shares, 12.2% of the company. And the cost is 2.45 billion today. One of the two main shareholders. Wow. This makes him an insider because they crossed 10%. Berkshire quadrupled its position in Lennar in 10 months.
Something is happening. Do you think they are coming out? Remember that he does not enter into short- term promotions. He is coming in for the long term. He likes it for the long term. He went through 7, 10, 13, 29 million shares. My God , October 7th. October 2nd, this is serious. Uh, they bought during today's drop.
It closed above any price they paid. They are now above any price they could have paid. Do you understand the power of following Buffett and why I'm telling you about it ? This gives you the opportunity to find those moments where you could buy cheaply. You could have gotten it for less than any of them.
And that was just a few days ago . And you? Did you manage to do it? I mentioned this in other videos. That's the question. Every indicator in the housing market is terrible right now. A 30-year mortgage, I told you before, 7.3, 7.4. It looks like it could even go up to eight, depending on the rates, but we've seen some relief.
Yes, I know, that's good. Let's see if this lasts. The average income buyer now spends over 30% of their gross income on housing. It should not exceed this figure. Remember, this is like a rule. Everyone knows this rule. You don't spend more than 30% of your gross income. Even then, you don't want it to be that high.
The supply of new homes is 8.5 months old, and the median price has fallen by 5.8%. That's it . That's it. Lennar buys volumes with incentives amounting to 12% of deliveries. They lower the price to keep the margin- shrinking mechanism working , and no one wants to be a developer in that situation. Nobody wants to.
Okay, you guys don't need to worry about that. I know how many of you will stop, turn and look at this, asking what is going on. I'm just getting ready to trade for today, friends. This is what we will do. Yesterday we simply tore the market apart. I think four out of zero, every move was just incredible.
Every indicator in the housing market is terrible. We talked about it. A short seller attacked Lennar during their purchases. So, Buffett is buying, and someone says, "I'm going to play short." On October 2, Hunter Brook published a report on Lennar and Melrose. This is a land company that Lennar spun off in 2025.
That day it fell 2.9% and continued to slide . Melrose is alleged to have bought over 700 Lennar homes in about a month. I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly. At least in 51 counties and 15 states . That's it. That's it. Why is this important? A related company is buying houses, and reported demand looks stronger than real demand.
Owns about 43% of the voting rights in Melrose and blah blah blah blah. So, why is this important? You know, they're always rearranging things to make it look better, and you don't want that to be the company you own. You want everything to be transparent, and we'll see how it unfolds. Hunter Brook said he was shorting both Lennar and Melrose when he published the report.
These claims are not proven. Berkshire kept buying despite everything. So, again, this is what Hunter Brook said. It says that if a related company is buying houses, the reported demand looks higher than the real one. Lennar's CEO owns about 43 % of Melrose's voting rights, and Lennar accounted for 72% of Melrose's revenue last quarter.
So there is something to watch out for. The $580,000 position is really just a signal. And this is another developer. Shares were purchased for about 500. For them, it's just a small amount that they throw on the table when they buy coffee and leave. How it shifted a little. What do we have? Not much.
This is a small position. Other developers, another developer. A little movement, right ? D.R. Horton earlier, and completely exited in the third quarter. We have what we have. And you can check it yourself . The other four names from the June report, valued at today's close—Alphabet. You know this is one of my favorites.
Delta, which I already mentioned. Lennar, New York Times and Macy's. D.R. Horton, which I mentioned, is only a tiny fraction. I'll remove this so you can see the graph. Here, please. That's it. We'll get rid of this too. Alphabet, how 10 billion was bought. 106 million shares held. Third largest. 10 billion was purchased directly through a private placement, not on the open market.
Paid $351.81 per Class A share. And minus 3.15%. The only name from the field of AI in the basket, and it fell. AI has gone completely crazy. Crazy about expensive things. You know what makes me nervous about AI? And you should know this. AI, when China creates it for 10% of the cost to people, to users, than what they would charge you in the US.
In other words, what you can do with almost the same quality, and for most people this is the case , you can do on their AI for 10% of the cost. And that...and you think to yourself: maybe $20 versus two. I'm talking about companies that spend hundreds of thousands a year, when they should only have to spend 10 to 20 thousand.
What do you think they will want to choose? Even they will say: " Well, this is a little short. Here it is 99%, and the Chinese version is 98%." You know, for the sake of the 1%, they will save hundreds of thousands of dollars. And this is the part that I do n't think anyone wants to talk about ...it's not talked about in the news.
They don't want to discuss it. They just say, "Don't trust them. Don't trust them." It's the same as with shirts or televisions. They don't make TVs in the US anymore . You don't see textiles made in the USA anymore. You don't sit there and say, "Don't trust your TV because it was made abroad." People don't say that.
So I understand what they're trying to do. They're trying to portray this as US vs. China, but the truth is, it's not like you don't trust some chips, because TVs can hear you, and we know that now. We have seen the reports that have emerged. They can listen through the TV, through the computer, through the device you're looking at right now.
It's not like you go to bed thinking, "Oh my God, I can't trust this." And no, it will be the same here . It all comes down to market dynamics and who will be the most accessible on a global scale . And this is what the world will gravitate towards. And I think that's the most nerve-wracking part. I believe that these companies, which have spent tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars on this, will be forced to compete with countries—not just China, but other countries—that can create open AI that is nearly as powerful, if not more powerful, than theirs.
And this is the scariest thing, because if this happens, the whole world will change. The whole world will change. I'm telling you. The other side of the balance sheet from the June report is a decrease. Capital One—abbreviated. News Corp— abbreviated. Kroger, well, I love that place. Decrease. Constellation Brands — dropped out.
Bank of America is down 5.9%, and Apple is unchanged. They...they always loved Apple. Warren Buffett, it was one of his favorites . A context that helps put all this into perspective: 360 billion in cash and Treasury bills. They still know that a wave of problems lies ahead, because it's impossible for them to have that much money.
It can't be that you have that much money. He once promised he would never hold more cash or equivalents than investments, and now we're right there. And people just ignore it. Well, he is allowed to say one thing and do another. It's strange to look at this. Amazingly. I remember that and I always thought: man, he's always going to invest in the US.
Now he has it all . He is just waiting to collapse. Now I understand and agree with him on this issue. But saying one thing and doing another is a completely different matter. What I'm really following is the real estate rate, that's the real story, not that report we read in August. Let's just be careful.
Let's see where we're headed. They have a billion dollar position. Let's see how it all works out. Now we will find out quickly. The next report comes out in November, in a couple of weeks. We will see him. It should be there by the 14th. Today has been one day, and the short report is still unanswered.
We'll wait and see what they say about it. Three things. Come here, friends. What are you waiting for? The academy is ready. We succeeded again. It was a wonderful week. Let me show you this. I want to show you guys how they did in Discord. I always love sharing this. They are just great. First, you get my daily reports here , friends.
I publish a daily newspaper every trading day that people read, and I have all these sections here. It covers everything you need. This is part of Earn It Plus. You get this access every day. This is very cool. And if you're on Discord, do you read my daily updates? This is a huge amount of information.
I know, I think people like it. It's a lot of work, but I hope so. Good. Hey, StockMob bought a TSM option a day later and sold it this morning for a huge profit . I know, it was massive. 69.88%, I know, mine increased by 150-200% at one point. It was grand. Good day. It was hard to let go of prejudice, but it no longer made sense.
That's it. Big Paint E Nate is our guest, one of our expert traders . I like it. I will be doing streams with options, another one too. We tear everyone apart. Good day. Yes , Deer Hunter is visiting us . Let's go. And so it is. I made $1110 without a single loss, not a single live trade went unprofitable.
What? Let's go. What do you guys think about this? Very nice way. It was a wonderful day. Maybe we'll do it again. I don't know. We'll see. So, to access all of this, follow the first link below, you can join and use two affiliate links that I have: WeBull and Cal-Shi. Huge opportunity . Light. This is an obvious choice.
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