저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달러가 준비통화 지위를 잃고 있으며 중앙은행들이 금을 대거 매입 중이라는 주장. 달러 준비금 비중 57% 하회, BRICS 현지통화 결제 67%, 2026년 1분기 중앙은행 금 순매입 244톤, 연간 750~850톤 전망, 미국 증시 실러 PER 약 41. 달러 약세는 수입 인플레이션으로 이어진다는 논지. 영상 후반부는 Aurum/Room 유료 플랫폼 홍보가 대부분.
다듬은 글
Before we get into today's topic, 20 seconds on what's happening right now in the markets. Gold has just fallen back to around $4,500 an ounce after hitting a historic high of $5,589 at the end of January. Aurum users saw each of these movements live on their phones while I recorded this video. You are only now discovering it several days later.
But let 's get back to the subject. There's a phrase I can't get out of my head for the past few weeks. The dollar is no longer a promise. The dollar has become a gamble. This is not a political opinion. This is a description of what central banks around the world are silently doing right now . And this has a direct impact on every euro you own, even if you don't own a single dollar.
Because the euro is not an island. The euro lives in the orbit of the dollar. What I'm going to show you in this video is not a far-fetched analysis or a dramatic prediction. It's a mechanism. A slow, discreet, almost invisible mechanism that is already underway and that closes in month after month to the detriment of all those who did not understand what was changing.
Most people are waiting for a spectacular collapse, a date, a crack, a newspaper headline in capital letters. But that's never how a reserve currency loses its throne. It happens slowly and then all at once . Stay with me until the end because halfway through, I'm going to show you the one thing that the two greatest powers in the world do in exactly the same way despite their rivalry.
Something that almost no European financial advisor explains to their clients. Subscribe now because we will follow this change together week after week. On that subject, one quick thing. While you are watching this video, the gold has already moved several times. Aurum users see each of these movements live on their phone with a market fear thermometer , automatic alerts and a community of investors who discuss in real time.
Room's annual plan is in the link below the video. But let's get back to the main point. To understand why the dollar has become a gamble, one must understand what a global reserve currency is based on. A reserve currency is not just paper. It is a structure that stands upright on two pillars. The first pillar is the economic power of the country that issues it.
The second pillar is trust, the belief that this country's commitments are credible, that its institutions are stable, that the rules will not change overnight. For 80 years, these two pillars of the dollar seemed unshakeable. Today, both are cracking at the same time. And it's not me saying this, these are the official foreign exchange reserve figures published by international institutions.
For the first time since 1995, the dollar's share of global reserves has fallen below 57%. Read this sentence carefully. For 30 years, the dollar had never been so little held by the world's central banks. And the decline is not happening quietly. It happens in silence. That's the whole point of this video.
There is a reason why this movement is almost impossible for the average saver to see. A central bank never issues a statement announcing that it has less confidence in the dollar. It adjusts the composition of its reserves quarter by quarter. And the result only appears much later, in statistics that almost no one reads.
Meanwhile, life goes on, markets rise, and everything seems normal. This is exactly how a profound change goes unnoticed. Let me show you something. I want to tell you a short story because it explains what is happening better than any graph . Werner is 71 years old and lives in Frankfurt. He worked at Commerzbank for 40 years and left in 2018 as a regional director.
Werner knows the banking system from the inside. He knows what advisors are trained to tell clients. He knows what internal report is circulating when a crisis is developing. And he knows that the phrase "Everything is under control" is exactly the formula that protocol requires to be used when control is slipping away.
When Werner retired, he wanted independent tools. He no longer trusted the institutions in which he himself had worked. Not through dishonesty, but through experience. He tested 12 platforms. He quickly grasped the mechanics of most of them. It was either brokers who wanted to sell him physical gold with a hidden markup, or apps saturated with ads for funds with conflicts of interest.
Aurum was different. No gold sales. No commission. No funds that pay to appear. Only data. And a community of experienced investors who discuss central bank movements in real time. Today, Werner opens Aurum every morning. He saw the banks from the inside. Now he's looking at the market from the outside.
Aurum's annual plan costs less than the price of a coffee per week. One payment for the year. 7-day guarantee, without automatic renewal. The link is below the video. The difference between listening to your bank advisor and seeing the data yourself is exactly what separates the one who trusts from the one who decides.
Seeing it live is better than learning about it too late. Let's get back to the video. Let's continue. Werner has a phrase he often repeats, and it sums up this entire chapter. A central bank never changes its strategy. It changes its strategy, and then the world notices years later. That's exactly what's happening with the dollar today.
One last thing before we continue. China doesn't buy gold because it finds it pretty. She buys them because she knows something that most savers don't. The real question is this. Do you want to see what she sees at the moment she does? Or will we discover it in the newspapers weeks later? Aurum, annual plan, the link is below the video.
Let's continue. Let's get back to the mechanism because that's the heart of this video. When the reliability of a reserve currency is questioned by those who hold it, these holders do not sell everything at once. They are not making any announcements. They do not cause panic. They reduce their exposure slowly, discreetly, month after month.
A central bank slightly reduces its dollar reserves. A country settles a little more of its trade in another currency. An investment decision that once automatically went towards a dollar-denominated asset is beginning to consider other options. Each decision, taken in isolation, seems insignificant.
Each one seems manageable, almost insignificant. But the cumulative effect of thousands of institutions and governments taking the same direction at the same time is a structural reduction in the demand for dollars. And a structurally declining demand means a currency that slowly weakens, without any single event ever being singled out as the culprit.
Nobody raises the alarm because there is no alarm to raise. There is only one way out. A dangerous situation never makes the headlines. This mechanism I'm talking about is no longer theoretical. It is documented, figure by figure, by sources that no one can accuse of being alarmist. First fact. The countries of the BRICS bloc now settle approximately 67% of their internal trade in their local currencies.
Just 10 years ago, this figure was less than 20%. It's a complete turnaround in just one decade. Second fact. Saudi Arabia, a historical pillar of the petrodollar system, has increased the share of its oil sold to China and invoiced in yuan. Remember what the petrodollar represents. Since the 1970s, oil was sold in dollars, forcing the entire world to hold dollars to buy energy.
When this foundation starts to shift, even slightly, the entire structure of dollar demand is affected. Third fact. China has built its own cross-border payment system. Today it connects more than 110 countries and operates entirely outside the dollar-dominated payment network. In addition, there are settlement systems between central banks that allow direct payments in national digital currency without going through the dollar at all.
None of these facts, taken individually, causes the dollar to collapse . The dollar remains and will remain deeply entrenched in world trade for a long time. The yuan, however, still only represents a small share of international payments, far behind the dollar. But that's not the point. The question is not the current level, it's the direction.
And the direction, for its part, is beyond doubt. Each of these decisions has an immediate effect on the precious metals market . Aurum users receive the alert at the time the data is published, not the next day in the press. Now, here's the question that almost no one asks. If everyone slowly and cautiously reduces their exposure to the dollar, where will this shift?
Not towards the euro, which is facing its own structural weaknesses and its own debt. Not entirely towards the yuan, which remains subject to capital controls decided by Beijing. The answer, the one that official figures now make impossible to ignore, can be summed up in a single word. Gold. Gold is the only universally accepted asset, immune to sanctions, free from counterparty risk and outside the control of any single central bank.
No government can print gold. No country can freeze the gold that another country holds in its own vaults. And that last sentence is not abstract. In 2022, the world saw, live, how quickly foreign exchange reserves could be frozen and made inaccessible overnight. No central bank has forgotten this lesson.
It is precisely from this moment that the pace of gold purchases has accelerated. This is why central banks are now buying gold at a rate not seen for decades. In the first quarter of this year alone, they purchased a net 244 tonnes of gold. The World Gold Council estimates that official purchases for the whole year will be between 750 and 850 tonnes.
And according to industry surveys, almost all of the central banks surveyed plan to further increase their gold reserves in the coming years. As a result, the share of gold in global reserves is now at its highest level since 1991. While individuals look at the price of gold and wonder if it is too late to buy, institutions are no longer asking themselves the question.
They accumulate. Here is the thing I promised you halfway through . Here it is. The world's two largest economies, the United States and China, are in open rivalry on almost everything. On trade, on technology, on geopolitical influence, they are in direct opposition. And yet, on one specific point, they do exactly the same thing at the same time.
They are both accumulating gold. Think for a second about what that means. Two powers that disagree on almost nothing converge on a single asset, because gold carries no flag. It cannot be used as a tool by the monetary policy of either side. In a world where the two greatest powers are both competitors and dependent on each other, gold becomes the only remaining neutral anchor.
This isn't coming from a financial advisor . This is demonstrated by the actual behavior of the institutions that manage the nations' reserves. When your most determined adversaries take the same precaution as you, it is no longer an opinion, it is a signal. And this signal is not isolated. Investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, one of the world's largest fund managers, has been defending this interpretation for years.
He is calling for a change in the world order. He even wrote an entire book on this mechanism. His thesis is simple to summarize. Great powers rise, reach a peak and then decline according to a cycle that combines economic strength, political cohesion and the soundness of the financial system. According to him, the United States is on the second half of this curve while China continues to close the gap.
And publicly, even recently, he continued to repeat the same recommendation in terms: diversify out of a single currency, hold real assets, keep liquidity for periods of turbulence. I'm not telling you to follow Ray Dalio. I tell you to look at what those who manage thousands and billions are actually doing because there is a gap, a huge gap.
On one side, there are people inside the system who are still debating whether the status of the dollar is really in danger. On the other hand, there are the institutions that manage global capital, which have already decided the issue and are already acting on that conclusion. This gap between what we debate and what we already do is the most important difference to understand today.
And it always closes in on those who remain on the side of the debate. If the issue of debt seems abstract to you, if the world order seems distant, then look at the other side of the scale. Look at the asset in which the majority of savers remain concentrated today. The US stock market has almost never been so expensive in its entire history.
The most respected long-term valuation indicator , the one that smooths earnings over 10 years to eliminate noise, is around 41. To give you an idea, in 155 years of stock market history, this level has only been exceeded once. This was just before the dot-com bubble burst . It is now higher than on the eve of the great crash of 1929.
Meanwhile, the American public debt exceeds $38 trillion and continues to grow month after month. US inflation, meanwhile, has risen again to 3.8%, its highest level in almost 3 years. And the US central bank, now led by a new president, has closed the door to any rate cuts this year. Here is the complete picture.
On one side, a very expensive asset supported by a currency whose reliability is increasingly being questioned. On the other hand, a neutral, scarce asset, without debt or counterparty, which nations themselves accumulate in silence. And in the midst of all this, the European saver who often believes he is safe simply because he does not hold dollars.
But the euro and the dollar are linked by a thousand invisible channels. A sustained weakness of the dollar means imported inflation. It's the price of energy that's going up. It is the cost of imported products that is increasing. Ultimately, it is your purchasing power that slowly erodes, without a single dramatic event that most people would recognize as the cause.
If you're wondering what this switch means in concrete terms for your savings, Room's smart assistant answers this type of question in seconds. This is why everything I have just described has a perfectly practical consequence. When the next big decision comes – a central bank meeting , a new inflation figure, a geopolitical announcement – the market will react in seconds.
Room users will see this movement live with the fear thermometer adjusting in real time and the community discussing what just happened. Without this tool, you will only discover it later, when the move is already over and the price has already been adjusted. In 1971, the world monetary system changed overnight when the dollar ceased to be convertible into gold.
Almost no one that night saw the turning point coming. The world woke up to a different system. Today, change is slower but it is just as profound. And this time, with the right tool, you can see it happening live, day after day. In conclusion, if you've made it this far, you 've already grasped the essentials.
You know that this change doesn't happen through noise, but through silence. You know that the next aftershock could happen tonight, tomorrow morning, or in 40 minutes. And you know she won't wait for your next video. With rum, in its annual plan and in the link below the video. 7-day guarantee, one-time payment for the year, with no automatic renewal.
Real-time quoting, automatic alerts, market fear thermometer , investor community, smart assistant, integrated economic calendar and chart. No gold sales, no commissions, no conflicts of interest, an independent platform designed solely to give you the data. It's not a big decision, it's just a click.
Seeing it live is better than learning about it too late. Let's summarize in one sentence what you just heard. The dollar is no longer a promise, it has become a gamble and the world already knows it long before the number on your bank account reflects it. Central banks, for their part, have already chosen their neutral anchor point.
They buy it ton after ton in silence. The only remaining question is whether you will see this change happen or simply learn about it much later when it has already been accomplished. If this video has shown you something about the real position of the dollar that your advisor has never explained to you, leave a thumbs up now.
Subscribe to the channel because we are following every step of this global shift together, in real time. And leave an honest comment under the video. Today, what proportion of your savings is actually outside the zone of? Just write it in one line. I read every comment. We'll be back tomorrow with the latest developments.
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