𝐄𝐃𝐔 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 💡 "Nothing Can Replace the US Dollar " - Nouriel Roubini Ph.D

요약 보기

달러 패권 약화론(무기화, 다각화, 관세·자본유입 규제)에 반박. 달러의 대체재가 없고(유럽 museum, 중국 prison, 일본 nursing home, 비트코인 experiment), 미국은 AI 투자붐으로 경상적자가 줄지 않으며 그 적자는 주로 지분성 해외자본 유입으로 메워져 달러 수요가 유지된다고 주장. 단기 달러 약세는 가능하나 중장기로는 미국 성장률(약 4%) 대비 유로존(약 1%) 격차로 달러 강세 전망. 미국 예외주의와 달러의 과도한 특권은 유지된다는 결론.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Uh point number five, people have said that u with American exception is being over and we have as having weaponized the US dollar for national security and foreign policy purposes and with all this talk even about a Mara Lago agreement that should lead to a weakening of the dollar because the dollar is too strong or even people talking about imposing taxes on capital inflows in the US because we don't want excessive appreciation of the dollar that leads to the industrialization.

02. People said all this kind of signal imply that people are going to want to diversify away from dollar assets. If you are a rival of the US, say China and you seen what the US has done to Russia, to South Korea, uh to Iran, then you know that you might be also sanctioned. And as they say, if I owe you a billion is my problem.

03. If I owe you a trillion, it's your problem. So China having so many dollar assets is risking them to put them in a situation of fragility and so on. And it's not just the rival of the US but even those who are the enemies of the US are worried that if we impose primary sanction on China and then they don't follow it the South Africa Brazils of the world they'll be subject to sanctions.

04. So everybody wants to diversify out of the US dollar. That's the argument for why there'll be dilarization and the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency is going to be over. However, you cannot replace something with nothing. Point number one. And point number two, if you don't like the dollar, what is the alternative to US dollar?

05. And my former adviser at Harvard, and he was my boss when I was a US Treasury, Larry Summers, famously said it was a bit of a joke. Was not a nice joke, but he said people don't like the dollar, but what's the alternative? He said, Europe is a museum, China is a prison, Japan is a nursing home, and Bitcoin is an experiment.

06. So people don't like the dollars alternative. Important point about valid. Additionally, ask yourself what's going to happen to the US current account deficit. Our trade deficit in spite of the tariffs is not going to shrink. It's not going to shrink for the following reason. From a macro point of view, the current account is the difference between national savings minus national investment as a share of GDP.

07. The current accounts share GDP. savings private and public in US are not going to fall very much or increase very much. They're stable. But investment is going to have a boom. Capital spending is going to boom because of the AI and the industries of the future. So if you have an investment boom and savings are the same by definition regardless of what tariffs are.

08. Your current account is going to become bigger. It's like a firm that is a growth firm has lots of capex investment doesn't have internal savings meeting in retain earnings and has to borrow equity or debt in order to finance that investment boom or emerging market that discovered natural resources has to invest into it and initially you have a current account deficit because investment goes up and savings are similar or not changing.

09. So US is like a growth firm or emerging market is in a boom. So the current account is going to widen but this wider current account deficit is going to be financed by inflow of capital in my view more equity than that could be FDI Greenfield or brandfield could be venture capital could be private equity could be portfolio investment but be a massive inflow of FDI to finance this current account deficit a lot of it is going to be equity rather than debt so among the foreign liability of US the equity one's going to rise more than the debt and that's why they're going to be more sustainable because the return then are going to be able to pay back the investors.

10. So current account deficit not going to shrink even with tariffs just because from a macro point of view we have an investment boom and therefore the inflow of capital into dollar assets is going to continue and therefore the exorbitant privilege of the US dollar as a major global reserve currency is not going to be over.

11. A final point I'll make on the US dollar. This year the US dollar has weakened. All this talk about weaponizing it, politicizing the Fed and trying to reduce independence and maybe the Fed's going to cut interest rate too much too soon. All bunch of cyclical factors and the euro that was almost at par with the dollar beginning of the years now of the day 117 has gone up by more than 15%.

12. But think of it in the medium long term. In the med medium long term the real value the real exchange rate of a currency depends on growth and productivity differentials. If a country growing faster the real value of it currency in real term has to be appreciating over time. So look forward not today 5 years down the line US growth is going to be 4%.

13. Euro zone growth is going to be stuck around 1%. And therefore massive amounts of inflow of capital going to come us to finance our economic boom. the dollar is going to become stronger not weaker and actually the the euro has to become weaker in order to gain some competitiveness through exchange rate.

14. So in a short run the dollar weakness may continue but over the medium term I think the dollar with exordant privilege remaining with American exceptionalist remaining with growth accelerating with the returns to new firms and existing one accelerating the dollar can strengthen over time. So the pessimist that says the dollar is going to be in a free fall for the long term I think is uh unwarranted.

15. So these were the six elements of the new conventional wisdom. Pessimistic and I gave you one by one in a very quick short way why I think that this commercial wisdom is negative at the US is wrong. American exception is not over. The exorbitant privilege of the US dollar is not over even if the road is going to be bumpy because of course there'll be correction.

16. There'll be noise and so on. But the medium term looks in my view bright for the United States. Thank you.