저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 빌 애크먼의 발언을 빌려 임박한 경기침체·하이퍼인플레이션 위험을 경고하지만, 대상 자산별 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 영상 전체 주장: 경제위기가 다가오고 있으며 금융 행동이 상황을 악화시키고 있다는 경고. 애크먼 발언 요지: 연준(Fed)이 인플레이션 통제 신뢰를 잃었고, 시장 붕괴 또는 대규모 금리인상 없이는 두 자릿수 인플레이션을 막을 수 없다고 주장. 연준이 더 공격적으로 금리를 올려야 한다고 촉구. 근거 수치로 언급된 것: 금리 6.2%, 물가 상승률 8.3%(올해 4월 기준), 실업률 3.6%, 미국 경제의 약 70%가 소비 주도, 연준의 75bp 인상(1994년 이후 최대). 투자 조언(애크먼 인용): 가격 전가력이 있는 예측 가능한 사업(패스트푸드 체인 예: 맥도날드, Carl's Jr.)에 투자, 고부채·변동금리 기업은 피하라. 연준 의장 파월: 강한 물가안정 의지를 재확인, 달러 신뢰 유지 발언. 리스크/조건: 연준이 공격적으로 대응하면 시장 압력 완화 가능, 실패하면 미국과 인접국이 역사적 침체에 빠질 수 있음. 위기 시점은 불확실하며 2023년 초에 올 수도 있다는 언급. 영상의 결론: 자산 보호 모드를 권고하며 시청자에게 계획 앞당길 것을 권유.
다듬은 글
the economic crisis is getting closer and closer countless analysts businessmen business professionals and others have already said so the global situation is getting more and more complicated and people are unwittingly encouraging this situation with certain behaviors regarding their finances yes it seems that hyperinflation is something that is no longer in our hands to avoid but what we can do is to protect ourselves and save our wealth from the crisis one that although we do not know for sure when it will arrive could be the cause of several problems that will be unleashed in a chain but when the situation catches up with us will we be prepared for it will we have the assets and resources to pay for ourselves and the rest of our family and what measures will we take to ensure that the crisis doesn't hit our homes so hard these questions are still on some people's minds precisely those who have taken an interest in the subject and do not deny the possible results that could be experienced worldwide it is for them that people like bill ackman have gone out to give lectures in various parts of the united states as these figures seek to get the rest of the population to prepare for what could be their worst crisis in more than 20 years whether or not he succeeded is anyone's guess what we do know are the words the investor has dedicated to his compatriots it all starts with bill ackman when he gave a series of lectures to small groups in the financial and corporate sectors for some months now the investor has been warning about certain behaviors that the economy is showing facts that are already revealing several alarming figures as far as is known so far this information has not been shared on a large scale nobody knows why this data is reaching a small percentage of the population and nothing else but what is known as the economist's opinion and position we should invest but there are certain types of stocks in the market which are not suggested to be touched at the moment the reason the stock market crash on a large scale thanks to the lectures given by the businessman it is known that one of the measures that the fed has been forced to implement is more aggressiveness against inflation this is still on the rise which is why the investor is calling for the problem to be addressed as it shows an alarming picture in ackman's words quote the fed has lost credibility it has failed to stop inflation because it is out of control in this context the situation reveals a whole series of factors that will be discussed below the first of these is the fact that consumer confidence has declined it is worth noting that 70 of the us economy is consumer driven so at this point in time if people are not confident necessary assets such as mortgages will collapse and reach historic numbers figures that were not recorded 22 years ago and that saw the light of an interest rate that has moved to 6.2 percent markets collapse because investors do not trust the federal reserve and consumer prices this is because rates have risen 8.3 percent this year in april alone the sectors that have been hit the hardest are food and fuel this just goes to show that inflation is out of control ackman has also reported at conferences on job vacancies these have become more expensive so that the unemployment rate is rising to 3.6 percent of course the biggest losers in this area are young people just out of university on the other hand the imbalance between supply and demand is driving up prices in sectors such as energy agriculture and food and the worst thing about all this there seems to be no sign of an end in sight on the contrary material reduction is far from happening something that made a lot of noise among investors and economists is that bill ackman commented the following quote the fed's current policy and guidance are not prepared for sustained double-digit inflation which can only be avoided by a market collapse or a massive rate hike the latter is the solution that bill himself has called for the fed to implement so that the interest rate hike will not be gradual and with few assets but more aggressive the investor has even spoken of monetary tightening measures with all the money they have printed markets will soar once investors can be sure that the days of runaway inflation are over that thought is very encouraging but looking at the current situation the questions have not been long in coming how is stability supposed to be achieved if ackman's proposed measures are so aggressive well it seems that the answer lies precisely in the fact that these measures are followed without question from what the businessman has already promoted forceful action by the federal reserve system and its subsequent follow-through could relieve some of the pressure on the market this would gradually provide the ecosystem needed to get out of trouble failure to do so would plunge the united states and consequently other nations close to it into a historic recession given the situation bill ackman has thrown out two pieces of advice which can be used to make investments regardless of whether the economy is experiencing aggressive inflation the first is have a predictable business that can raise prices this is in order to combat inflation an example of such a business that can be set up would be fast food chains mcdonald's carl's jr and other establishments continue to receive an incoming balance for a reason food is a basic need that will always seek to be met secondly we have the following advice invest in businesses that are not affected by rising rates what do you mean by that that companies that have high debt and variable rates are not advisable to invest in at this time quote the current market downward spiral will only end when the fed draws a line in the sand on inflation and says it will do whatever it takes to get out of it ackman insisted adding that the central bank will have to keep going until the inflation genie is back in the bottle for his part jerome powell chairman of the federal reserve affirmed and reiterated his determination to further curb inflation saying that the u.s central bank's commitment moves the world away from holding in trading dollars in powell's words quote the fed's strong commitment to our price stability mandate contributes to widespread confidence in the dollar as a store of value on wednesday the fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points this is the largest increase since 1994 and signaled that they will come more aggressively as they battle the highest inflation in four decades despite bill ackman's statements that the fed has already lost credibility due to its misreading and late inflation trigger several current and former fed officials have spoken out with measured comments and no disguise surprise these men and women are proposing a modest rate hike as a way to provoke a pause in the downturn yes the fed has already begun to take action however the coin is in the air and as the days go by it will be seen whether ackman's words are heated or whether the strongest economic recession the u.s has suffered in years will be inevitable for the moment these are some of the main fears in the market that the fed will have to provoke a recession to contain prices is already a cause for concern add to that the fact that some analysts believe the move is likely to cause a severe and sharp slowdown in growth in the coming months we are at a crossroads with two equally difficult and dangerous paths which path will the fed choose for now we can only hope that the governing body is doing its job well as bill ackman said we close today's video with that final warning from stock market expert and investor bill ackman as you can see his comments and suggestions are similar to the action plans that other businessmen and economists have taken in recent times because of this we can assume that everyone is in asset protection mode which gives us an idea of what we can do to ride out the crisis now that you know what will be your plan of action for the coming months are you willing to follow ackman's advice or would you rather listen to the suggestions of other experts we're just telling you that whatever you want to do you may need to speed up your plans remember that the crisis has no start date so it could emerge in the next few months or as early as 2023 leave your comments on the topic in the box below and if you would like us to talk about other finance related topics don't forget to leave your suggestions see you next time
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