저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜덤은 Fed의 고금리로 인해 1~2년 내 경기침체와 주가 하락이 올 가능성이 높다고 본다. 금리와 자산가격: 저금리는 자산가격을 올리고 고금리는 내린다. 향후 평균 금리는 지난 10년보다 높을 것으로 전망한다. 버블과 침체: 2021년 버블 붕괴 이후 디플레이션 국면이 와야 하며, 이익 감소·이익률 하락·경기침체가 뒤따를 것이라고 본다. AI는 침체를 늦출 수 있으나 결국 기술주 붕괴와 금리 영향이 우세할 것이라고 본다. 연준 평가: 연준이 침체 위험이 사라졌다고 보는 것에 동의하지 않는다. 연준은 과거 버블 이후 침체를 한 번도 예측하지 못했다고 비판한다. 파월 평가: 파월의 인플레이션 대응에 비판적이며, 인플레이션은 최근 10년 평균보다 낮아지지 않고 다소 높은 인플레와 금리 시대로 재진입했다고 본다. 장기 리스크: 주식시장보다 기후변화, 자원·인력 부족, 중국 등의 인구 급감, 불평등 심화, 환경 독성 등 장기 문제가 더 중요하다고 강조한다. 투자 이력: 1998년부터 시장 과열을 경고했으나 2000년 3월까지 시장이 오르며 고객 이탈을 겪었다. 현재 자산의 75%를 초기 벤처캐피털에 투자하고 있다. 성향: 스스로를 낙관론자나 비관론자가 아닌 현실주의자라고 규정한다.
다듬은 글
while many on Wall Street have stopped obsessing about a recession Jeremy Grantham is not that should shock no one who has followed the career of Grant the mail van otter leing co-founder uh doubling down on the Gloom and an interview taped For an upcoming episode uh of Bloomberg wealth with David Rubenstein uh grantom said the federal reserve's most aggressive tightening in four decades could tip the uh economy uh into recession and take the stock market with him uh um in the end life is simple low rates push up asset prices higher rates push asset prices down he told Rubenstein we're now in an era that will average higher rates than we had for the last 10 years uh grandm 84 is well known for bearish forecasts that have occasionally been issued before big Market shocks such as in 2000 and 2008 he called The post-pandemic Surge inequities in many ways about equal to the 2000 Tech bubble but said it's deflation has been delayed by the frenzy surrounding artificial intelligence his own call is on the line while prognostications of Doom is well timed when shares tanked in 2022 they look less precient amid this year's rally uh during the wide ranging interview the renowned investor also discussed his record of predicting bubbles what worries them the most about the economy and where he invests his money for more insights from the biggest names in investing watch broomberg wealth with David Rubenstein grantham's interview airs on September 5th on blueberg television at 9:00 p.m in New York through York the interview has been condensed and edited for clarity uh do you think we're in a major bubble right now in the United States and do you think that the uh Tech bubble has burst sufficiently uh I think we are descending from the 2021 bubble which was one of the the great Bubbles and this should be normally the deflationary period will the earnings decline will have profit margins decline will the economy go into recession every great bubble has been followed by a recession um personally I think AI is very important but I think is perhaps to m 28 to save us from a recession um the deflationary forces from the tech stocks breaking in 2021 um probably too big the power of Interest reactions rising and depressing the real estate market very negative slow moving influence um I suspect that they will once again Dominate and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and uh accompanying decline and stock prices the recession that you're predicting probably is not going to happen in 2023 it may start in 2023 um the Federal Reserve recently said that they think we've cleared the recession hurdle and they don't really project the recession any longer um do you agree or disagree with that uh the fed's record on these things is wonderful it's almost guaranteed to be wrong um uh they've never called a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claim credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always do uh you said not too long ago that you weren't a big fan of Jerome Powell and the way he's been handling inflation is that correct yes that's correct and you think he's done a better job recently in in getting inflation under control it's largely out of his hands the forces work I suspect inflation will never be as low as it average for the last 10 years that we have reentered a period of moderately higher inflation and therefore moderately higher interest rates uh what are you most worried about when you wake up every day and look at the stock market and the economy um well uh if you want my honest answer um you know I feel that the economy and particularly the stock market is very secondary to a list of important long-term problems uh that we have that no one takes seriously enough yet and I feel that when we sit here discussing the stock market we a little like uh uh Emperor Nero fiddling uh while Rome Burns uh my job description these days at GMO I haven't done traditional stock work for 15 years is working on uh uh long-term underrated problems and it's been a wonderful to be doing that because we have um climate change the most important issue uh in the investing world for uh the next few decades um um we have shortages of resources we have shortages of Manpower a population bust the the like of which we have never seen uh in in particularly in a countries like China we have an incredible growth in inequality which uh I think is the poison in the political system and uh we have uh a great surge of toxicity I think we've made Planet unfavorable to life in every form including homo sabians uh and these are real issues they're moving incredibly fast they threaten perhaps the existence of of a stable uh Global Society um when you go to a cocktail party um and people ask you how the the world is doing and you tell them it's all falling apart do people get tired of hearing this from here and you ever tell people actually there's something good happening and absolutely and I you know I'm very sensitive to the idea that you can be so depressing no one would want to live with you forget a cocktail party you've got to frame it in a more interesting way and fortunately the reality is the effort going into climate change for example is so impressive um uh it's moving so fast uh you can look it back at what people thought would happen to wind solar and storage and electric vehicles we have done much better and people fought 20 years ago so we freighted it as the race of Our Lives when did you become so well known for predicting bubbles or thinking that the markets were out of kilter sometimes was that because of your writings your stock picking or your public speeches I started writing quarterly letters in 1998 and 1998 to 1999 of course was a a glorious bubble and it just went up and up and up and up and we fought the bubble all the way and so we were we were horrifically too early uh in early 1998 the PE went to 22 times and the highest in history had been 1929 when it peaked at 21 so we were relatively patient we didn't take a position against the market until it was the highest PE in the history of the US Stock Market in early 1998 and then we laed to go to 35 times earnings and that is not a modest increase from 21 that was a brutal two years and earnings were Rising as well so the market made a magnificent move from its all-time high in early 199 98 it went straight up until March of 2000 and our clients did not approve of us being early and to a very considerable degree fired us and they were very upset missing out on making money when your golfin partner at the neighboring pension fund is making a fortune uh is is very irritating who manages your money I'm pleased to say 95% of my money is in a foundation I co-manage the foundation I'm advised by Cambridge Associates and we are invested 75% in early stage Venture Capital which most people would consider a bizarre concentration we consider it the best part of capitalism and very much the best part of American capitalism American Venture Capital industry is the pride and jewelry of the Venture Capital world bigger and better attracts people from all over the world but would you call your yourself overall an not theist or a pessimist I think of myself um as a realist uh trying to see the world as it really is and not the way I'd like it to be sometimes I succeed and I fail in that uh but when I focus on new Ventures I must say it's irresistible to be optimistic they can really carry you along uh
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