What Losing 90% Taught Howard Marks About Markets | Stocks | Investment

요약 보기

하워드 막스는 예측자를 모른다는 자와 모른다는 것을 모르는 자로 나누며, 투자 성공은 남들과 같이 생각하면 불가능하고 더 나은 2차 사고를 해야 한다고 강조한다. 자신의 성장주 90% 손실과 고금리 채권 투자 경험을 교훈으로 든다. 대중에게 알려진 정보는 이미 주가에 반영되어 있다고 주장한다. 구체적 자산 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. We have two kinds of forecasters, the ones who don't know, and the ones who don't know they don't know. You know, a lot of people say to me, "Who was your mentor?" And I never really had a mentor, per se. I mean, it was mostly reading and studying, starting at Chicago uh before I thought it worked. And then but I did learn a lot uh by experience.

02. One of my favorite sayings is is experience is what you got when you didn't get what you wanted. Uh and so, you know, the the experience of losing 90% in the growth stocks was very educational. And the experience of uh making money in the higher bonds was very educational. John Kenneth Galbraith was one of my favorite uh uh inspirations.

03. And he wrote a book that I read early on called A Short History of Financial Euphoria, which talked about cycles and euphoria, so the ups and downs of of of psyches, which are very important. And uh that book had some very, very important quotes, which I use all the time. One is that we have two kinds of forecasters, the ones who don't know, and the ones who don't know they don't know, which I believe in very strongly.

04. Uh and then another is what he says about the one of the dominant characteristics of financial markets being shortness of memory. And you know, people just always forget the lessons of the past, and that is what causes cyclical occurrences to repeat. Uh if people understood and remembered and avoided their tendency to go to excess, then I think the cyclical the cycles of the world would be much more muted, but they don't learn it.

05. Uh on the one hand, we have prudence and memory, [clears throat] and on the other hand, we have uh uh envy and greed. And most of the time greed wins. Yeah. Charlie Munger, who is one of my inspirations, always quotes the philosopher Demosthenes, who said, "For that which a man wishes, that he will believe." So, most people, if you show them a scheme and you tell them it'll get them rich without much risk, they'll they'll take it up.

06. But, my son wanted to be in the investment business, so he went off to college and he would come home and he would say, "Well, we should buy Ford stock cuz Ford is coming out with a great new Mustang." And my answer was always the same. Who doesn't know that? The point is that the things that everybody knows are already in the stock price.

07. So, if you know something and you say, "Oh, that's going to make the stock go up." You should think about whether everybody else knows it and have already incorporated in the price. If you think the same as everybody else, you'll behave the same. And if you behave the same as everybody else, you'll have the same performance.

08. The goal is to outperform. So, thinking and behaving the same as everybody else cannot be the route to success. Rather, you have to think differently. You have to see things differently. You have to perceive some information differently or interpret it differently or analyze it differently. And only if you do that, can you can you rise above average performance.

09. Now, you can't think differently just for the sake of being different. You know, if most people say, "Well, it's probably going to be the weather tomorrow is probably going to be about the same as today." You can't say, "Well, just a minute. If I'm going to be successful, I have to be different, so I'm going to say that I think that the weather tomorrow will be either 20° hotter or 20° colder." It's not a winning approach.

10. You have to do it for good reason. But, you have to think different. And you have to think better. So, if if you if you if you try to be different in your thinking, but it drives you to to to to think worse, to to more erroneous conclusions, that's not a way to success. Different and better. So, an example is very simple.

11. The first [clears throat] level thinker says, "This is a great company. We should buy the stock." The second level thinker may say, "It's a great company, but it's not as great as everybody thinks it is. We should sell the stock." That's an example of second level thinking at work.