저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 현재 시장이 1929년·2000년급 '슈퍼 버블' 이후 붕괴 패턴과 유사하다고 경고하며, 버블 붕괴 후 경기침체와 주가 하락이 뒤따를 것이라고 주장한다. 버블 정의와 과거 사례 과거 버블은 2시그마(약 44년 주기)를 '일반 버블', 3시그마(약 100년 주기)를 '슈퍼 버블'로 정의했으며, 미국 증시에서는 1929년, 2000년 기술주 버블이 해당되고 주택시장에서는 2007년이 해당된다. 일본 1980년대 말 부동산·주식 동시 버블도 언급하며, 이런 이중 버블은 더 나쁜 결과를 낳는다고 설명한다. 연준과 경기침체 전망 연준은 버블 붕괴에 따른 경기침체를 예측한 적이 없어 예측력이 나쁘다고 비판한다. 이익 감소·이익률 하락·경기침체가 내년까지 이어질 수 있으며 주가 하락이 동반된다고 본다. 시장 괴리 신호 러셀2000은 전년 대비 하락했고 S&P500은 23% 상승해 괴리가 크며, 1929년·2000년 슈퍼 버블 때와 같은 패턴이라고 지적한다. 나스닥 종목 40% 이상이 고점 대비 50% 넘게 하락한 상태다. 대응 전략 GMO 운용에서 채권 등 방어 포지션과 러셀2000·나스닥 공매도를 활용한다고 언급한다. 장기적으로는 자원(원자재) 펀드가 주식 포트폴리오와 음의 상관관계를 보여 분산투자에 유리하며, 인플레이션 시 특히 유리하다고 주장한다. 조건과 리스크 버블 붕괴 시점을 몇 달 단위로 정확히 맞추기는 어렵다고 인정하며, 예측 시기에 대해 일관되지 않은 면이 있다. 과거 1998~2000년에는 너무 일찍 경고해 고객 이탈을 겪었다고 회고한다. 출연자 전망 그랜섬은 향후 수년간 주식 시장의 조정과 경기침체를 장기 관점에서 경고하는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles this is a huge Divergence of a kind that has never happened other than the super bubbles of 1929 and 2000 Jeremy Grantham the harbinger of economic storms emerged es from the Shadows with a dire Proclamation a tempest Brewing on the horizon that threatens to dwarf a mere recession we have a little handful of these super bubbles every one of them is followed by a recession right that's pretty simple if you get anything really wrong like 1929 it's followed by depression if you mess around with the financial system you have the terrible happenings of the great financial crash no I don't don't think so uh I noticed reviewing it last night that there was one little element of contradiction at one stage I said you can't call these events to within a few months and at another point I said history says that when you reach this level of craziness the market tends to break within a few months rather than a few years I think we are descending from the 2021 bubble which was one of the great Bubbles and this should be normally the deflationary per period the deflating period uh which is a function of uh will the earnings uh decline will profit margins decline will the economy go into recession and we will have a recession running perhaps deep into next year and and an accompanying decline in stock prices if you do everything more or less right if the housing market is just fine actually cheap in 2000 the bond market is very cheap in 2000 you're really trying to make life simple you still have a mild recession and this has been exactly how the great bubbles have broken the the Blue Chips the S&P 500 have kept strong right up to the last second and wave after wave of the stocks that had made the real running uh peel off and drop yeah I think the fed's record on these things is is wonderful it's uh almost guaranteed to be wrong they uh have never called a a recession and particularly not the ones following the great bubbles they prided themselves in in stimulating the bubbles they took credit for the beneficial effect of of higher asset prices on the economy they have never claimed credit for the deflationary effect of asset prices breaking and they always do with a measured tone he delivers the unsettling truth cautioning us about the impending cataclysm that looms like a spectral Spectre over our fragile Financial landscape yeah about that 30 years ago we thought it was a good idea to Define what a bubble was since everyone was talking about it and we picked a measure of St statistical kind of outliers ship uh that would be once every 44 years in a random world and uh statistically that's two Sigma and that was a what we would call a regular bubble and you would expect trouble when they hit three sigma which is the kind that should occur every hundred years we call them super bubbles and there have only been a very small number of those three of them in the US Equity Market this one the 2000 Tech bubble and 1929 there's been one in the US housing market too in in ' 07 so the big picture is you always get a recession you always get a terrible wipe out of the specs and and you get a pretty hefty decline in the S&P and uh if you do anything gratuitously worse than that like having a bubble in more than one asset class or messing up your economic policies or your financial policies you will do worse and things will be bad which we'll get to Japan of course committed the heinous of having the greatest bubble in real estate simultaneously to the greatest bubble uh ever 65 times earnings in the stock market uh but the 65 times earnings was not nearly as bad as the as the bubble they had in in real estate where the land under the empress Palace actually really was worth more than the state of California and more than 10 times the square foot rent downtown Tokyo to New York to Manhattan just incredible the biggest bubble I suspect in history including the south sea bubble and the and tulips within this prophetic caution unfolds a tapestry of economic vigilance inviting everyone to fortify their financial foundations and ready themselves for the turbulent times that lie ahead in 1929 the the flakes were down for the year before the market broke they were down 30% the year before they'd been up 85 they had crushed the market the really classic example of this is the Russell 2000 which is stock number 1,1 to 3,000 they're multi-billion dollar companies they're a serious Enterprise in the last year they are down they have not made any money at all the S&P has made 23% the Russell 2000 is meant to go up about 1.2 times the market in a bull market like you're saying there was it should have been up about 30% it it wasn't even up recently so this is this is a huge Divergence of a kind that has never happened other than the super bubbles of 1929 and 2000 2000 you may remember the grow stocks peeled off and were down 50% the S&P was flat which meant the remaining 70% had risen 20% this is an enormous Divergence and it happens on the upside for the Blue Chips so this is absolute it's almost eily classic it's a pattern it's a pattern it's a very rare pattern and uh we have been checking off this list all year when I sat down a year ago we had seen the accelerating phase that you need in a bubble that had taken place last year with the uh NASDAQ up over 100 from the low but also up 58% from December of 2019 so even granted that decline it was a hell of a year it was a year of acceleration and and the NASDAQ has started to weaken relative to the Blue Chips the Russell has started to weaken much much more so even than NASDAQ I always like to say there's nothing more supremely irritating than watching your neighbors get rich it is just irresistible to try and join in and uh when enough people hit the inflection point it sucks in everybody and they're they're the great bubbles they're the ones that are interesting mostly there's a nice balance between bulls and bears and once in a blue moon every 20 years or so you'll hit an inflation point where enough people become bullish that people stop thinking about fundamentals the spotlight Narrows on Jeremy Grantham a sentinel of economic foresight beckoning us to heed his warning and fortify our positions against the impending Financial Deluge I think the the idea here to get your brain around is that there's a huge commercial imperative for the big firms the banks the brokerage houses Goldman saches to play right up to the end it's hugely profitable that they're never as a firm uh convincingly bearish ever and they never will be it doesn't make commercial sense but but at the top even though they feel the commercial imperative to be bullish they're thinking to themselves but my God the market looks expensive so I'm dared if I'm going to dance over the edge in pumch in 2000 I'm going to dance over the EDG in Coca-Cola uh in 1929 or cocacola in 2000 and it works when the end comes it is always better to have danced off the cliff with the Great Blue Chips than with the specs and and the defining feature of the great bubbles the super bubbles is that towards the end even on the upside as the S&P and the Blue Chips go up the supers specs that have led the market for the previous few years start to go down they don't even underperform they get the the sign wrong today as we sit well over 40% of every stock on the NASDAQ is down over 50% from its high so this Divergence which is very rare occurred in 1929 occurred in 1972 in front of a good bare Market occurred in 2000 and is once again has started since about the spring of last year grandon Foundation our performance is absolutely vital to us because it governs how much we can pay out as grants as well as everything else and with 75% in BC you better believe our 25% is credit default swaps and short Russell short NASDAQ and so on um but what if you have a more normal portfolio the one component for the long term that is very interesting that I missed um which GMO has a very good fund and that's a resource fund we have a very good fiveyear record in that one too and both of them and the climate are slightly ahead of the S&P which has been the guy to beat over five years and uh our our resource fund just attempts to look out at the problems anticipate them and and get ahead but resources have some very interesting features first of all they at 10-year Horizons I know that's a long Horizon but they are negatively correlated with the balance of your portfolio when resources are going up the rest there's pressure on your the rest of your portfolio and vice versa now no other group diversifies light resources not not even close even you know you pick utilities the the correlation never gets kind of below 75% but this one after five years it's down to 25 and at 10 years it's actually very tiny negative correlation brilliant and when inflation occurs not always but almost always it benefits for obvious reasons so it is not only a good diversity fire but it's a particularly good one now when you're suddenly after 20 years worried about INF inflation again in this age of economic uncertainty Jeremy Grantham stands as a Harbinger urging us all to fortify our financial abodes for the storm approaching May dwarf any Tempest we have weathered before I started writing quarterly letters in 98 and 98 99 of course was a glorious uh glorious bubble and it just went up and up and up and up and uh we fought the bubble uh all the way so we were horrifically too early that was a brutal two years and the earnings were Rising as well so the market made a magnificent move from its all-time high in early 98 went straight up until March of 2000 and um and our clients did not approve of us being early and uh to a very considerable degree fired us a standard bubble we defined over 20 years perhaps 25 years ago as a two Sigma statistical event it's just a measure of of how much of an outlier you are so you have a historical series deviation from Trend yeah you have you have a price series of the S&P you can
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