Mohamed El-Erian: Here's how investors should position with today's uncertainty

요약 보기

시장 불확실성이 매우 높아 한 가지 시나리오를 확신하기 어렵다는 진단이다. 불확실성은 경제 작동 방식, 인플레이션 경로, 정책(시장 vs 연준 간 괴리) 세 가지에 걸쳐 있으며, 에너지 전환·공급망 재편·세계화 변화라는 구조적 불확실성과 맞물려 있다. 포트폴리오 운용자는 기저 시나리오만이 아니라 꼬리 위험(tail risk)에 더 많이 대비해야 하고, 경제학자는 데이터를 세밀하게 봐야 하며 현재 가장 중요한 부문은 서비스업이라고 본다. 연준은 최근 인플레이션을 11번 언급하며 매파적 입장을 강조했지만, 시장은 연착륙 쪽으로 해석했다. 고용 지표 발표 후 연준이 추가 금리 인상 여지를 어떻게 설명할지가 관건이다. 엘-에리언은 25bp 인상 두 번 정도가 남아 있다고 보며, 가장 큰 우려는 경기가 약화되는 상황에서 금리를 인상하는 것이라고 말한다. 선행지표(특히 제조업 PMI와 감원 소식)를 보면 경기 둔화를 주장할 근거는 있지만, 노동시장이 강해 침체가 확정된 것은 아니라는 입장이다. 언급 종목·자산 중 명시적 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 미국 금리에 대해서는 추가 인상 가능성을 언급했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. joining us now for more on the markets is Mohamed El Aryan Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens College Cambridge and Mohammed looking at what Larry Summers had to say earlier he said that this may be the most complicated economy he's ever had to try and read where do you come down on that the jobs number on Friday really surprised a lot of people so he's absolutely right and something that we have discussed on many Mondays is that we have significant uncertainty on three key issues one is the way the economy functions we can talk and defend many different outlooks for the real economy over the course of the year to inflation I can think of three possible scenarios for inflation and then finally policy and the disagreement between the markets and the Fed so there is an unusual level of uncertainty and then it feeds on to the structural uncertainty we've been talking about the energy transition the rewiring of Supply chains the change in globalization so I completely agree with Larry it is a very difficult economy to read and we have to get ahead around the notion that there are many potential outcomes and no one can convince you with a high level of conviction and Foundation that one will prevail we just don't know Becky so what do you do where are you going to throw your hat so first if you're a portfolio manager and it goes back to something you discussed in the seven o'clock hour you think a lot more about the tales you don't ignore the Tails as thin and very unlikely you think a lot more about the tail you don't just position yourself for the Baseline because the bass line is less probable as an economist you take a lot of time going through the data in major major details because that is what's gonna show you I think the service sector is probably the most important sector to understand today okay um in terms of what you think the FED is going to do how much more complicated did it just get I mean Jay Powell was sounding a little dovish last week before we got these jobs numbers but you look at the jobs number my guess is they're game on again in terms of higher rates yeah you know he said this inflation 11 times during the press conference 11 times that word wasn't mentioned a single time by the ECB president or the governor of the bank of England who spoke the following day um and he gave the market the perception of a hard turn towards soft landing and then we got the Friday report so so he's going to have to decide whether he wants to clarify tomorrow um where he sees things going look you know that I would have preferred that they do 50 basis points and then wait and see they didn't I suspect we have two more 25 basis points ahead of us and my my major concern is the possibility that they end up hiking into a weakening economy the economy is very strong now and that's why you wanted to get the hikes out of the way I worry that we may end up hiking into a weakening economy and that would be unfortunate where where is the economy showing signs of cracking where where did where does it happen and when does it happen so the forward-looking indicators are the reason why some people not me some people predict inflate in a recession with a hundred percent probability I'm not there you know that I've said it over and over again um there is nothing predestined about a recession but if you look at a small set of forward indicators the Ford indicators themselves the leading indicators themselves the pmis manufacturing in particular the layoffs that we're hearing of you can make a case for a significant slowdown that is what people are looking at but you can't deny the strength of the labor market and that's why people like me say you know what it's not a done deal by any measure that will end up in a recession