저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 이미 조정 중이며 현금은 인플레이션에 의해 잠식되는 안전하지 않은 자산이다. 달러 기축통화 지위가 약화되고 미 국채 공급 과잉으로 화폐 발행(monetization)이 늘면서 부의 저장 수단이 금 등 대체자산으로 이동하고 있다. 중국은 장기적으로 중요한 금융 강국이 될 것이며, 분산투자와 올웨더 포트폴리오로 대응해야 한다고 주장한다. 타이밍 매매는 실패하기 쉽다.
다듬은 글
how do you value this market today I think that just the way you said it is going to be a Fool's journey to say here's the stock market and I'm going to time the movement into the market and I'm going to time the movement out of the market okay you know what that means you're going to out guess what the next variant move is and what the next other thing is a lot of things depend on a lot of other things and everything readjusts what has to happen I think is investors most importantly have to realize two things first that uh cash is not a safe investment is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation there will not be an interest rate that will anywhere near compensate and it seems good because it's not volatile but you're paying a tax of a few percent a year on that so A stay out of that and then B know how to balance a portfolio because the way portfolios work it's almost like for some part something happens um another thing happens in other words what you can see in the markets today is that um let's say when equities go down because growth expectations falter and there's a greater likelihood of easing then you see the bond market go up or you see other markets gold you're seeing watch the market action on every day and you could see those relationships by be wealth is not destroyed as much as it is transferred and if you know how to balance those Investments we in a what we call an all weather portfolio but if you know how to balance those Investments that's the most important thing be in a safe well balanced portfolio you can reduce your risk without reducing your return and you can you will not Market time this because even if you were a great Market timer you're the things that are happening can change the world so it changes what should be priced into the markets let's go back to sort of basics for every individual for every company for every government over a period of time you have to earn more than you spend and you have a balance sheet there's an income statement in a balance sheet when one becomes a reserve currency others want to save in that and that gives one the exorbitant privilege of being able to borrow in that and to create debt and money because that's the thing and it also gives us powers like a lot of our sanctions come from the dollars being a reserve currency and so however through history it has always happened that currencies are devalued or destroyed and in that cycle when it becomes unattractive to own bonds or debt instruments in that currency there's a supply demand problem because a bond is a promise to receive currency so what you are is when you own a bond you're long a lot of currency because that's what they promis to give you and they have the printing press and then there are shifts that happen who is accounting for World Trade right now China accounts a larger share of World Trade than the United States for example so what we are doing is we are in a Fiat monetary system in which we are running very large deficits that we are monetizing and that those deficits produce bonds that have to be sold when when I look at the supply and demand for those bonds I know who the buyers are you know they're a limited number of really big buyers and so and look at their portfolios and so on calculate what that is there's not going to be enough demand for those bonds and there's going to be a need for more monetization of that debt and so the answer is yes we're producing a change in the stor hold of wealth and you've seen it in the markets because just think of it in a mechanistic sense when there was that stimulation and the buying what the Federal Reserve did in terms of buying that assets there was not only the decline in real interest rates we had you know about 150 base points decline in real rates and nominal rates down there so the discount rate was lower you also had a lot of liquidity which came in and the world now has an enormous amount of liquidity bidding for financial assets and so if you increase the supply bonds and you increase the amount of money bonds are going to be worth less relative to other things and seeing a shift in the storeold of wealth and like the 1933 period that when Roosevelt did the same moves in 1933 you then saw assets rise because they're alternative stor holds of the wealth that's what we saw in terms of the liquidity move that we've happened in Market also included in gold and so on and so that's how it looks to me in terms of the comparison uh we're now in a new era the US debt crisis could ignite a long-term rally in gold since March 2020 the US added another $8 trillion in debt and gold is up 50% buying gold and silver is a defensive strategy when you don't trust elected officials in Washington DC having your best interest at heart National Gold group is America's number one precious metals company National Gold group has the IRA fee waiver program that means they will pay the fees on your IRA for up to 10 years on qualifying rollovers call 888 59 92883 to learn about their retirement account fee waiver program mention free investing and you'll always get Best in Class service from America's conservative precious metals leader you can also go to their website by fig gold.com using the link in this video description we're in the new era we are pressing the limits of that that money at the end of the day whoever's accepting that Reserve currency's got to believe in it hey Ray one of the things you do right about is China some would argue that you have a a generous or or or more sympathetic view to China than perhaps uh some of the most Hawks if you will about China uh but you think that there's sort of an inevitability to the transfer of wealth of sorts well okay two things China transfer of wealth I just know China very well and I come as a perspective uh with a perspective as an investor I've been going there since 1984 I have I know leaders and I know how they're thinking and I the moves that they're making in a detailed way and I'm just trying to share what that perspective is because I think a lot of people make stereotyp typical uh moves and I think you have to really understand first thing you have to understand because it has been a remarkably successful place since I started going there in 1984 per capita's increased by 26 times and so on so to not understand it or to approach it with a great bias is a great disservice okay in terms of the element of let's say um a transfer of wealth or let's call it common Prosperity yes there's a world in this world right now there is a much more there's a move to Common Prosperity not I think that um that that move what does it mean at a technical level that's not take your money away but here I I would say what are called progressives here are much more left than what we would call PR aggressives or or whatever the Chinese policies are doing um but yes worldwide there has to be common Prosperity or let's call it broad prosperity and the question is whether there's that's going to come about by productivity or not it doesn't mean that you're going to have like a communism that's going to take all of that there's going to be a lot of productivity in China and so again diversifying the portfolio um you know you look at the United States elsewhere you have to diversify and there are things that are going on and also uh let's just think about Capital flows China is becoming an effective place to invest money uh something like 40% over 40% of the IPOs are going to be Chinese stocks on Chinese markets and so on and capital flows work that way and history has shown us that when there's an Empire an emerging Empire they build the financial markets they build the financial system so Amsterdam was the world's Financial Center during the empire when there was the um Dutch Gilder London was the financial center in the British Empire us uh we had New York and so we're seeing that merge all of that changes the supply and the demand that is threatening to the reserve currency status just imagine it's a state okay the state of Connecticut the state of Illinois and so on and you can't print the money that means you either have to raise taxes or cut spending and history is shown in these Empires that that causes great conflicts because taxes raising taxes and or cutting spending has been all through these Empires and I've studied I don't know how many over a long period of time the number one reason that you have Civil Wars so yes it's easy to say we have to earn more than we spend and so on but in this environment in this highly fragmented environment how are we going to get there what I decided uh to do I was doing the research for myself in Bridgewater because I what I learned through my life is that all the surprises the big surprises and mistakes I made uh whenever they occurred were things that didn't happen in my lifetime before but happened before my lifetime like in 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange August 15th I remember it very well well um Nixon announces that money as we know it is not any longer going to exist and people wouldn't accept money dollars in Europe and I went on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange where I'm clerking the next day and I thought them it was a crisis and I thought the stock market was going to go down a lot and the stock market went up a lot and then I said okay well why and I studied history and I studied devaluations and I studied that the exact same thing happened on March 5th 1933 with Roosevelt's move and I understood when you devalue you reflate and it has this positive effect on that so what's happened recently is that I've observed three big things that are going on that haven't happened in our lifetimes and that they're big big big things and so those three big things led me to want to study them in history and they are what's going on with with money and credit as you get the zero interest rate and everybody needs a lot more spending power the production of a lot of debt that is monetized and directed by the central government to the places they want it to go because the capital markets won't get them there in that way that phenomenon came loud and clear through Co but it existed before and so that leads me to the supply and demand of money and CR it and I realize who gets it and who doesn't get it drives not only the markets it drives our lives so that's one the second factor is the emergence of populism and the wealth Gap so when Donald Trump got elected and there's a lot of populism around the world that didn't used to happen in developed countries in the same way and I decided to study the distribution the desiles so I took the bottom 60% of the population and I looked at those conditions and so on and I realized that the wealth Gap today is the largest since it was in the 30s the monetary policy I'm talking about last time that happened zero interest rates lot of monetization 1930 to 45 period the wealth Gap and the conflicts that we're dealing last time that happened 1930 to 45 period so that factor we're at each other's throats we have conflicts primarily over money and wealth and that defines tax policy so when we look into the new Administration whatever that may be uh we're going to think about those policies I needed to put that in perspective and then the third is the rise of a great power to challenging an existing great power the world order that we're in began in 1945 the United States won the war basically it accounted for 50% of the world's economy had 80% of the gold gold was money and so we built a dollar-based and us-based Order and now we're in a position where the Soviet Union was never economically comparable rival they had nuclear power but not the same and so we're now seeing every day that rivalry and as you know like me me like you go there and we know the people makes decisions and so on and so forth and so by being able to see that we perceive changes pertaining to that so those are the three Factor s of our lifetime which then said I need to go back and find out what determines a reserve currency and not so I went back 500 years because I needed the Cycles it used to be the Dutch Empire the British Empire and the American Empire and that's what I did so the reason I wanted to share it was I'm now at a stage of my life I'm 71 and my notion at this moment and I'll do this for maybe a year or two more is to pass along the things that I've found valuable to other people for them to take or leave as they like National Gold group is consumer affairs toprated gold Ira dealer call 888 59928 A3
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