저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 집중투자(소수 종목) 전략이 장기적으로 높은 수익률을 내는 데 유리하다는 주장. [집중투자 철학] 최고의 10~11개 투자 아이디어에 집중하는 것이 12~100번째 아이디어로 분산하는 것보다 낫다고 주장. 좋은 투자 기회는 동시에 몇 개뿐이라고 봄. 다만 변동성이 커지고 실수나 부진 종목이 주목받기 쉬운 단점이 있다고 인정. [성과 주장] 포브스 400 부자들 대부분이 한두 사업으로 부를 쌓았다는 점을 근거로 집중투자를 옹호. 소규모 팀(8인)으로 운용이 가능하다는 장점도 언급. 지수 대비 성과는 좋았다고 주장하나 단기(90일) 성과는 예측 불가하다고 함. [투자 체크리스트] 단순하고 예측 가능한 현금흐름을 창출하는 고품질·지배적 사업을 우선 선별. 사업 품질이 가장 중요하며, 현금흐름 예측이 안 되면 가치 평가가 불가능하다고 봄. 가격과 내재가치 사이에 큰 괴리(예: 50센트에 1달러 20센트 가치)가 있고, 할인 원인을 파악해 자신들이 그 괴리를 좁힐 영향력(레버)이 있는지 판단. [사례] 2008년 금융위기 당시 Wachovia 분석: 은행 자회사 매각 후 지주회사에 현금과 27억 달러 세금환급 가능성 등을 4시간 만에 분석해 주당 11~14달러 가치로 판단, 주가 1.84달러에 매수. 이후 Wells Fargo 인수로 이익 실현. [인재 채용] 전통적 금융 배경 외에도 낚시 전문가, 테니스 선수 등 비전통적 인재를 채용하고 인턴십 기회 제공. 투자팀 절반은 블랙스톤 등 출신. [리스크/과거 경험] MBIA 공매도 당시 공개적으로 논리를 밝히며 큰 비판을 받았고, 규제 당국 설득에 수년이 걸린 경험을 공유. [출연자 전망] 특정 종목 가격 방향에 대한 단기 예측은 없음. 장기적으로 집중투자 전략의 우위를 강조.
다듬은 글
a bunch of reasons I mean I've always had the view that you know why why not own the best 10 or 11 investments as opposed to ideas 12 through 25 or 12 through 100 which is more typical and you know I think they're very few great investments at any one time so the ability to concentrate is an enormous e value blasted of a strategy the problem with it is most it leads to bumpier returns and it leads to more attention on on mistakes or things that aren't going well you know I don't know a portfolio manager that doesn't have a stock that's down in his portfolio right but you don't read articles about when we're getting an awful lot of attention for a pretty high profile situation that's that's struggling but I think there's you know it depends what your business model is but if you want to make high rates of return over a long period of time it's hard to do that being very diversified I mean if you look through the Forbes 400 wealthiest people in the world most of them made their fortune in one business or a portfolio of two businesses very few made it in a portfolio of a hundred so it's what's that and the other benefit it allows you to run a much simpler investment for them we have an eight-person investment team if we had 30 names we couldn't manage that portfolio the way we do with a small team well there's a small team you can hire better talent there's actually an argument that some people are now making that you know buying the index or buying diversified funds have had much better returns than buying you know those hedge funds that have you know a very specific smaller portfolio approach like yours Oh haven't seen that article I mean I think we've done very well relative to any index alternative certainly so I couldn't depends on how you judge us I think if you judged us on a 90 day basis I have no idea how we're gonna do relative to an index but I think this is a strategy that over time should are in a meaningful premium over you know any kind of benchmark or you shouldn't give us more money yeah so talk to us about the Bill Ackman strategy or that mental checklist that you go through before deciding to go long a shorter position I mean first on Bill Ackman strategy was a Pershing Square strat Pershing Square and it's it you know I do get a fair amount of the but you have the final say yay nay that's correct okay so some could pick that and CEO buck stops with me absolutely we just want to make sure that it's good ones in the family management by committee that's correct okay so but just to be clear every idea has a leader at Pershing Square something the leader may not be me some tells me sometimes not go through that strategy and go through how it works and when you come you know maybe you'll override that portfolio manager or not but what's the checklist you kind of go through so we look for very high quality businesses what we describe as simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant businesses a business that Warren Buffett would describe as having a moat around it right if you if you believe that the value of anything financial is the present value the cash you can take out of it over its life we need to know how much cash it's gonna generate over its life so it's a business quality to us is the single most important criterion for determining what's interesting because if we can't predict the cash flows we don't know it's worth we don't know it's worth we can invest and we figure out what it's worth figure how good the business is how predictable will this cash flows be from a railroad or a spirits company or a real estate company shopping mall business and then we say well okay well where's the trading and if there's a wide gap between price and value you can buy for 50 cents it's worth $1 20 and then we're gonna take a hard look and try to understand why it trades it a deep discount and once we understand the reasons we decide well these things that we can solve you know where can we in light of the situation the circumstances can we be influential and changing these these levers that can cause this valuation discrepancy to narrow and is this a business that while we're causing the valuation discrepancy to narrow we can also perhaps contribute to the valuation growing and those things are truly found something that looks quite interesting for us and usually this investment philosophy does it take a week a month three months to do the research a year I mean you have ten names what how long it depends I mean one of the best investments we were made it took us four hours to do the work I was during the financial crisis which was that Wachovia corporation so I was on my blackberry eating breakfast the Brooklyn diner in front of my building and the restore II went across the I was just you know a Wall Street Journal headline our Reuters headline excuse me went across saying that Citigroup to acquire the Wachovia banking subsidiaries for two dollars in Citigroup stock stock was halted this was kind of an interesting transaction because they were buying the subsidiaries for Citigroup stock I figured no that's interesting what happens to the holding company so I went back to the you know kind of went upstairs to the office and you know cracked open the 10k and another member of the team Nick McGuire he and I worked on it and what was interesting is the thousand page 10k of Wachovia corporation I think nine hundred pages were on the banking subsidiary there's fewer the one hundred pages on the holding company by buying the banking subsidiary city was leaving a holding company which had cash you know and Wachovia Securities AG Edwards they had paid six seven billion four to six months before evergreen asset management and they were taking a twenty seven billion dollar loss on the sale of the subsidiary and it also had a liability called non-cumulative perpetual preferred stock which of everyone have a liability in your life this is the single greatest liability to have it's a it's a form of equity where you never have to pay a dividend and when you don't pay them they don't accumulate and the worst case is they got a couple directors in the board and you say hi to them each meaning and you have this very innocent I said but this could be our Berkshire Hathaway and the end of the day we figured they asked you know in four hours when we determine the holding company was worth at least eleven to fourteen dollars cash a tax refund that you could carry back the twenty seven billion dollar loss recover cash taxes have been paid you have this cash vehicle you don't walk oviya securities which is a you know good wealth management business you don't AG Edwards another interest in asset you either businesses you know well and the stock opened after it was halted at a dollar eighty four so he said look it's worth a you know eleven to fourteen a dollar eighty four we bought 42 percent of the volume for the next four days and then it was acquired by then Wells came in and put in the topping bid of seven dollars in Wells Fargo stock which wasn't actually a topping bid but the Wells Fargo deal did not require government assistance so I think Sheila Bair left I remember that I interviewed Sheila Bair circle a show so um so you're known for occasionally hiring people with some non-traditional financial backgrounds form a fly-fishermen a tennis pro someone you met in a taxi so what actually are you looking for so most of the people that we have on the investment team are people with more conventional backgrounds half the team worked at Blackstone and either private equity or Investment Banking a few guys from Goldman Sachs but I'm a big believer you know I had internships in my life and you know if I made a great human being you know I want to give some you know people who didn't go to Harvard Business School and didn't work at Goldman Sachs for four years you know some exposure so I met the beginning of Pershing I met a guy named Oliver white who I believe is one of the you know he's become recognized one on top fly-fishing guys in the world very smart interesting guy taught me fly-fishing and I said look if you're interested in business and you want to intern at you learn something about it you know come work for me and Oliver came and spend 18 months with us you're taking a very outdoorsy guy and you're putting them in Hatton which was kind of an interesting thing he didn't like that part of it but you learn a ton about business and then he left he actually worked a lot on one of our proxy contest situations in the Ceridian we had a proxy contest one of the issues was the the CEO was using the corporate jet to do a lot of fly-fishing junkets so we were able to track that stuff through his network of fly fisherman so it was a useful in the proxy contest anyway and Oliver left you know to do and I backed him to buy a fly fishing launch which the Abaco Lodge and in Abaco in the Bahamas and it's like you know 20% on levered return on capital and he's done an unbelievable job managing in and the hardy guy named Mary is Adamski who I met on the tennis court super talented guy went to Wake Forest you know top tennis player and he and I offered him a job and he's worked for us for the last couple of years and he did a lot of the research on Herbalife and he did a phenomenal job so I just you know I was gonna go to business school because he's gonna he needs more training to come back into the business but I think it's a you know a nice thing to offer people those kind of well I was offered opportunities like the glad I flew down with you maybe I have a role for looks sure I'm taking a short position and going public with it is a pretty serious business we and I debated long and hard as to whether I wanted to do that again you know we I took a lot of heat for taking a big short position and MBIA yeah and and sharing my thinking publicly about why I thought that 150 to 1 levered triple-a rated institution guaranteeing subprime CDOs was not good for America and not good for your pocketbook and could cause a financial crisis by the way and there's some similarities because you thought the regulators were missing that as well and we didn't and it took us a couple years to get the regulator's interested in taking a look at the accounting issues reserving issues and and so on for the company but I learned a lot about dealing with the regulatory community and also know a lot of headaches associated with it
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