저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 세계 경제가 2008년보다 더 나쁜 위기를 맞을 수 있으며 부채가 크게 늘어 다음 위기는 더 심각할 것이라고 경고한다. 인터뷰 진행자는 '쌓여 있는 현금 더미'를 기다리는 투자 철학과 로저스의 최근 투자 행보를 묻는다. 로저스는 대부분의 성공 투자자처럼 자주 아무것도 하지 않고 좋은 기회를 기다린다고 답한다. 최근 중국·러시아 농업 관련 자산을 추가 매수했다고 밝혔다. 석유는 50% 이상 폭락 후 바닥을 형성 중일 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 악재에도 가격이 더 하락하지 않으면 바닥 신호라는 논리다. 러시아 루블 표시 국채를 최근 매수했고 루블과 금리가 바닥을 쳤다고 본다. 러시아 자산은 현재 외면받고 있어 장기 가치투자 기회가 될 수 있다고 한다. 미국 경제는 중앙은행의 대규모 통화 발행으로 일부만 좋아졌을 뿐 인위적이며, 전반적으로 부채가 크게 늘어 취약하다고 평가했다. 아시아는 채권국이고 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이므로 아시아 쪽이 상대적으로 유리하다는 입장이다. 중국이 최대 투자처이며, 의료·환경·농업·철도·관광 분야에 주목한다. 현재 가장 큰 포지션은 미국 달러이며, 안전자산 선호 때문에 달러 수요가 계속될 것으로 보지만 달러 자체를 신뢰하지는 않는다. 홍콩달러도 보유 중이다. 금은 현재 일부 보유 중이며 1~2년 내 더 좋은 매수 기회가 올 것으로 보고 그때 금과 은을 더 살 계획이다. 1700달러대면 기꺼이 매수하겠다고 밝혔다.
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with global currency devaluation accelerate around the world and mining shares at historical lows now is the time to own hard assets on sale mining hall of fame legend mike mckowski responsible 16 mental deposit discoveries just announced a fully funded exploration campaign for Cal annex mines trading on the tsx V under cnx and on the otcqx go to CLL excess with less than five percent of geologists ever making even one discovery Mike's new resource sockets quickly gained the attention of famous resource investors like billionaire Carlos aveli a large shareholder of Phoenix to learn more visit futuremoneytrends.com / hard assets hello everyone and welcome in to crush the street calm my name is Kenneth Emory and today we're going to be talking global economies in trends and talking about some currencies in the gold and what's going on around the world in global trends specifically and I can't think of a better person to talk about all this with than Jim Rogers Jim Rogers is a successful legendary investor he's the co-founder of the quantum fund he has compounded his own wealth and the wealth of other people very successfully over the years and he's even got a couple old records he's an author and I'm fortunate to be able to talk with him today Jim thanks for joining me delighted to be here Jim you mentioned something a while back and I remember you talking about waiting for that opportunity for a pile of cash to just be sitting in the corner waiting for you to go and pick it up and obviously you're talking about an investment opportunity an obvious investment opportunity that is presenting itself as clear value and I just wanted to kind of talk to you about that have you taken action on anything substantial and what do you see going forward with this sort of investing mentality in most the time of many successful investors do nothing they are wet neither waiting to find things and I've used the expression wait until you something where there's just money lying in the corner and all you have to do is go and pick it up you know wait for a good opportunity in other words and if you find a good opportunity then we'll probably do most of the time waiting to waiting for it to develop and mature your of course checking it all the time to make sure it's still correct but most of the time I do nothing and many many successful investors do nothing most of the time just accept waiting for the opportunity at the moment I don't think I have any new I mean I the things I've invested in and I'm still about diet bone china for a long time I bought more china last week russia likewise japan but these are not just not something new that i suddenly said hey let's go rush over invest in japan I've already been interesting in Japan for three years or so and China and Russia agriculture is probably a good opportunity now I own it and it's certainly cheap it hasn't been going up it's been going down so it has been like that that pile of cash in the corner that you've described in the past you haven't seen anything like that and specifically nothing new this way I'm it doesn't happen very often right oh my god I just wondering I don't talk to you everyday I happen to see something today it would be very very coincidental and a stroke of pure luck because it doesn't happen very often that you come across something it's you know it's going to do well well I guess to I was also thinking about oil and seeing what happened with the oil markets and the price per barrel in dollars getting slashed by over fifty percent and maybe that was an opportunity that you were seeing as an opportunity where there is that pile of cash to go hard and some oil plays well God made oil is probably making a bottom is in the process of making a bottom I noticed as the love I you know normally when things collapse they fiddle around for a while rally and then they have a they test the bottom HS the lows again few days weeks or months later and it seems that that may be what aisle is doing now and I will point out that i keep reading all sorts of bad news about oil but it doesn't go down to new lows and it's been my experience doing there's a lot of bad news and something does not go down anymore you using means the bottom is forming and likewise when something is going up and a lot of good news comes out and it doesn't go up it usually means the top is forming so you're probably right a bottom is forming in oil something else that is more recently I mean I mentioned Russia but I bought some Russian bonds a week or so ago Russian government bonds in rubles because the ruble who knows the rule may collapse again but in my view the blue book is making or has made the bottom and likewise interest rates in Russia so if if the ruble is bottoming and if interest rates or you know about the start going down again you'll get a double play owning Russian bonds government god yeah that's exciting it's hated right now I mean so is as far as the Russian economy the currency it's one of those things that people just don't want to don't want to deal with right now and of course that could be one of those value plays over time so it's been my experience that when things like this happen or have happened in the past it usually passes a euro tour who knows five years later you know the world moves on and the opportunity that existed is capitalized on by some people and people forget all the bad stuff can somebody makes a lot of money I don't know that I will but I hope so Jim what's your current opinion and outlook on the US economy are you optimistic that things will turn around or are you more or less of the opinion than it's just slowly declining well things have turned around for some people i mean the government US government is printed staggering amounts of money and spent staggering amounts of money the people have been getting that money very pleased and so are their friends so yes it is happening for some people it spread some but it's very artificial its first time in recorded history you've had all the major world central bank's printing a lot of money at the same time Japan Europe Great Britain the US so yeah this is certain the things a lot better for some people but overall it's not better because Ava debt is up very very much all over the world and second it's artificial it's based on artificial money printing and artificial spending it's amazing how this just kind of continues to chug along but I know you're very bullish on asia in terms of the u.s.
decline where does Asia pick up the slack where does Asia come in with the u.s. declining how does the Asian markets benefit from that and I'm sure that's why you're investing and you even live in that area you live in singapore we're talking across the world right now so can you talk a little bit about that well the largest creditor nations in the world now are all in Asia China Korea Japan Hong Kong Taiwan Singapore you know even Russia which is Floria a lot of it's in Asia are doing very well they have creditor nation the largest u.s.
is the largest debtor nation not just the largest desert nation in the world but the largest in world history so you have serious changes taking place in the world and they're huge debtor nations in Europe as well and despite all the talk of our stairs is you probably well know every country is going to have higher debt this year than last year and higher dead next year than this year so we don't really have any austerity anywhere and the debt burden continues to rise the reason 2008 was such a bad time was that there was so much debt in the world well now the debt is much much higher and the next time we have an economic problem oh it's going to be terrible because the deck has gone up so very very much Asia is a creditor basically as a creditor region it's lower-cost place to do business taxes the lower everything is I mean people save and invest here the savings race in China is over thirty-five percent in the u.s.
is two percent meeny miny statistics like that on Asian countries they'll particular like saying any of this if I'm American citizen can expire and voter like you but we have to face facts and things are not doing well what's specifically booming in Asia and is and what it's specifically are you invested in unrest and all sorts of things my largest investment or in China but the Chinese had a major economic conference in beijing in November of 2013 where they announced and outlined of areas of the Chinese economy where they're going to be putting their most emphasis in the next couple of decades things like health care pollution control agriculture railroads I mean my view is if the Chinese government's going to spend a gigantic amount of money on something I should put some money there too so those are my main areas in China tourism is obviously going to growth a lot in that one maybe it's not obvious Chinese have not been able to travel for centuries very much but now because the war and civil war and a lot of other reasons but now it's easier to get a passport it's easier to take money out of the country the government encourages people to travel both in the country and internationally the Chinese tourism is going to be one of great growth industries with the next dedicated to their billion 300 million Chinese has not been able to travel for centuries now that can and are encouraged to so those are the kinds of areas in China where I'm investing and as I say I continue to buy shares in China I know you kind of mentioned Russia and investing in the bonds but what currency do you feel most confident saving in like in terms of just money that you want to put somewhere and use at a later time not necessarily investing which is saving well at the moment my largest current position is the US dollar and has been for a couple of years not because I have any confidence in the US dollar that said before the u.s.
is the largest debtor nation in world history I only because there's turmoil there is turmoil and there's more turmoil coming and in times of turmoil people look for a safe haven they think the US dollars the safe haven it is not a safe haven given this the death situation in the US but since many people perceive it that way people will buy and will continue to buy the US dollar I mean if things get as bad as they could in the next couple of years US dollar could even turn into a bubble at which point I if it happens I hope I'm smart enough to show my dollars and who knows where I'll put money at that point the hong kong hong kong kong is tied to the u.s.
dollar i own it as well on the theory that eventually the chinese currency the renminbi will be convertible at which point the hong kong dollar will disappear they're all hong kong dollars will be converted into renminbi i own remember to these are some of the karate but there's an the answer your question is I don't have an answer there is no safe car see it never never has been and never will be yeah that's that's interesting i want to just ask you another question about your success you've had a lot of success compounding your wealth and the wealth of others and what separates you from your average value investor who's read the intelligent investor by Benjamin Grambling what has made you different and substantially successful than the average value investor that is out there well that's interesting by I considered those books by bending the intelligent investor and security analysis with two books i read early on in my industrial I was bowled over by them and I've always had taken the approach a way to make money in the market to buy things that are very cheap but I also said buy things that are cheap where there's some kind of change taking place I guess maybe that I mean I consider myself a a value person I guess maybe the difference is that my horizons are not just limited to the new york stock exchange you know if i find a cheap country i invest in it if i find a cheap industry or a cheap commodity cheap currency my view is to invest in them in gram de general lighting about countries or current user or even commodities it's really cool that you are able to do that I wanted to ask you about your world record traveling around the world and specifically how this has affected your investing have you been able to invest differently with a different perspective having traveled all around the world in the way that you have well actually have two World Records for travel one on a motorcycle in one in the car but listen that's not very relevant doesn't pay the rent I assure you though the travelers didn't chance they reinforce i have always invested internationally a long you know when i first went into the business i can remember one like in my first year or two that means my guys about the danish krone up and they were unbelievably confused and almost scared you know what i was talking about so I have always invested around the world but my trips have reinforced that it shows me more and more where that things are happening and somewhat things that were happening became clearer you know if you see the world close to the ground or you check things from the ground up you've got a better understanding than if you just read about it absolutely well Jim I got to ask you about gold we've seen gold just face this headland over the last few years and where are we right now with that and are you optimistic in the short term that we're going to see gold go higher I own goat heads a little up attached a little of my goal but no I'm I expect another opportunity to buy gold sometime in the next year or two I'm not buying it to moment if it happens if there's another opportunity to help I'm smart enough to buy it you know it depends on the world i mean if America goes to war with Iran next week up by golden 1700s be happy to get it but but I'm expecting a better opportunities by go sometime in the next couple of years which I resume i will then buy more gold and more silver awesome well Jim thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me if people want to reach out to you or find more information on you where would they go and what would they find well I don't really have a I'm not a facebook or twitter or any of that I mean there's some Impostors using my name on many kinds of social media i mean i have a website jim rogers calm but there's not much there except my public schedule and stuff about my trip so i mean i guess i can read my books but all I know or go to my website and see where I'm speaking they can come to one of my speeches if they want definitely check out Jim Rogers is books you've got street smarts latest one and a few others you're going to definitely enjoy them and his perspective on global economies thank you so much Jim for taking the time to talk to me today anytime let me know when thank you ha you
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